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Welcome to Week 10 of the football season. I’ll be providing you with some DFS content, covering Running Backs and Defenses. We’ll take a look at some potential cash-game plays as well as some pivots that could be used in tournaments. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to reach out in the comments section below.
Cash Game Options:
Christian McCaffrey, CAR ($19,200) at GB
I’m leading this article with the advice of “don’t get cute” with your cash game lineups. Christian McCaffrey is worth the pay-up. On one of the Rotogrinders Podcasts, they mentioned a stat that even at this price, if you gave McCaffrey his average fantasy points scored per week, he’d still be the best dollar-for-dollar value on the slate. McCaffrey gets a matchup with the Packers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year, so when you’re starting your lineup construction, just hit the lock button on McCaffrey. We’ll figure things out from there.
David Montgomery, CHI ($10,900) vs. DET
What do you think came first, the Bears wanting to get David Montgomery more involved or the realization that Trubisky is hot garbage? Either way, we’ve seen Montgomery’s role in the offense increase over the last two games as he went for 135 yards on 27 carries in Week 8, before finding the end zone twice against a stout Eagles’ run defense in Week 9. This week he gets a matchup with the Lions, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs this year. I love Montgomery’s combination of matchup, potential workload, and price-point this week.
Devin Singletary, BUF ($9,500) at CLE
Did you guys see it? The passing of the torch ceremony from Frank Gore to Devin Singletary was so touching. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Singletary out-snap Gore 83 to 39 and he out-touched Gore 30 to 20. Singletary looked good last week, carrying the ball 20 times against the Redskins for 95 yards and a touchdown, while also catching three balls on four targets for 45 yards. This week the Bills face the Browns, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs on the year.
Nick Chubb, CLE ($14,500) vs. BUF
Nick Chubb finds himself in what I like to call a “pricing no man’s land”, where he’s priced up high enough to be considered your RB1, but he’s not someone you’re really happy about starting your lineup with. In my opinion, this makes him an excellent tournament play, because he should be low-owned. He also has a matchup against a team in the Bills that I think people would glance at and just say, “Eh, the Bills defense is solid.” However, the Bills have actually allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year. With Chubb getting 90% of the Browns running back carries and seeing a 12% target share in the passing game, Chubb lines up as a really nice sneaky play this week.
Derrick Henry, TEN ($12,000) vs. KC
I know, I know, Derrick Henry can’t possibly be a fantasy stud in PPR formats – except he is and has been literally all season. Henry sits as RB10 in PPR scoring thanks in part to his eight touchdowns. The narrative I just wrote, will keep his ownership low, to begin with. The matchup and potential game script are what have me super intrigued. The Titans face the Chiefs, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year. With Patrick Mahomes potentially being back this week, what’s the game script that favors the Titans? Keeping the ball on the ground and eating clock, while keeping Mahomes on the sideline. I could see Henry have a monster game if they’re able to stick to the game plan.
Ronald Jones, TB ($8,400) vs. ARI
This is one where I’m not sure on his ownership, but the price is right, so let’s talk about Ronald Jones. I think we’ve finally seen the changing of the guard in Tampa Bay. After rolling out Peyton Barber as their early down back for seven weeks, Week 9 saw Jones handle 18 carries and play on a season-high 53% of the offensive snaps. Jones also has five targets over the last two games. I still expect Dare Ogunbowale to be involved as a third-down back but we’ve now seen his snap count and target share decrease in consecutive weeks. If this trend continues and we get 20 touches out of Jones, he’ll easily pay this price off.
Cash Game Option:
Buffalo Bills ($5,600) at CLE
If you have the money to go up to the Ravens ($7,000), by all means, as they have the best matchup against the Bengals, but as I led with, I’m paying up for McCaffrey. The Bills get a matchup with the Browns who have allowed the fifth-most points to defenses this year. The Browns have allowed the 11th-most sacks per game and that quarterback pressure has led to giving up the third-most turnovers this year. The Bills defense combines a good matchup with a decent price to provide a cash-game floor with upside.
New York Jets ($4,400) vs. NYG
The “Battle for New York” (NJ really, since both teams play in Jersey) could be a messy affair. On one side, the Jets have allowed the most sacks per game and are tied for the third-highest giveaways this year. On the other side, the Giants ($5,500) have turned the ball over the most and allowed the 9th-most sacks this year. I’m comfortable with going to either of these defenses, but rolling with the Jets gives us some extra money to spend elsewhere. They should be able to force Daniel Jones into some turnovers and if one of those gets returned for a touchdown, you’re on your way to a big pay day. Good luck this week!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)