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Prior to breaking down the Thursday night game from a daily fantasy perspective, I will recap how I did in the Fantasy Draft $100,000 Run and Gun (Sun Only) tournament from the week before. You can compete against me weekly throughout the season.
We were off to a monster start in Week 10 as Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was my number one tournament quarterback and he absolutely smashed. To get him at only four percent owned is a dream come true and is exactly what we’re striving for in a large tournament like this. However, it was pretty much downhill from there as I teamed Trubisky with tight end Trey Burton and despite the Bears scoring 34 points, Burton was a disappointment as receivers Anthony Miller and Allen Robinson were the players who produced.
It’s amazing that Melvin Gordon and Alvin Kamara continue to produce and they weren’t as highly owned as I would have thought. However, Kareem Hunt and Dion Lewis were the chalk running backs for the week and they disappointed in a big way.
Paying up for that many high priced running backs meant I needed to go cheap at wide receiver. When news broke that Chiefs wide out Sammy Watkins would miss Week 10, I decided to go with a complete punt in Chris Conley and hope for a touchdown. That obviously didn’t work out and either did Chargers receiver Tyrell Williams. Williams was facing a team in the Raiders that give up big plays down the field and Williams led the Chargers in targets downfield. It was set up nicely for a possible long touchdown, but it wasn’t meant to be.
The Jets were facing a Bills quarterback in Matt Barkley that hasn’t played an NFL game in two years yet they decided not to show up and allowed a terrible offense to score 41 points. Time to move on to Week 11.
The Green Bay Packers travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in a game that has an over/under of 49 with the Seahawks favored by 3. We have two of the top quarterbacks in football squaring off in Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson which means both players are always in play.
Rodgers is priced as the second highest quarterback this week with a salary of $13,400. Rodgers has yet to throw for 300 yards in three straight weeks after two consecutive games of throwing for over 400 yards. The Packers are relying more on the run which has hurt the volume of passes from Rodgers. The Seahawks rank sixth in pass defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders, but we know Rodgers is usually defense proof. The issue with Rodgers is his price this week as there will be plenty of other options to use that are much cheaper. I would avoid Rodgers in cash lineups, but he is an elite tournament option as he won’t be highly owned and always has an incredible ceiling.
As for Wilson, we finally saw the quarterback use his legs in Week 10 as he finished with a season high 92 rushing yards. This is the second consecutive week that Wilson rushed at least five times and finished with at least 40 rushing yards. This is extremely encouraging as Wilson’s fantasy value has always been tied to his rushing ability. Like the Packers, the Seahawks are relying more on the running game which has limited Wilson’s passing attempts. However, he continues to make the most of his opportunities as he has thrown three touchdowns in four of the last five games. The Packers also rank in the top 10 in pass defensive DVOA, but like Rodgers, Wilson is usually defensive proof. Wilson is cheaper than Rodgers, but not by much as he checks in at $12,800. I can live with Wilson in cash games as the recent rushing ability gives him a stable floor and his price tag is fair. However, I will be using Wilson in tournaments only for Week 11.
As previously mentioned, both the Packers and the Seahawks are relying on their running backs more which is good news for fantasy. Unfortunately, we have the dreaded running back by committee currently in Seattle as all signs point to Chris Carson returning after missing Week 10. Carson has led the backfield for the Seahawks, but in his absence against the Rams, rookie Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis filled in admirably. This could be a situation in which all three running backs are used which is not what we want as it will be hard to predict how many touches each guy will get. If you believe Carson will return to his role as the primary ball carrier than he is in a good spot this week as the Packers rank 26th in rush defensive DVOA. Carson has a great price tag as well at only $10,200. The unknown makes this a situation we want to avoid with our cash game lineups, but I like Carson and Penny as tournament options.
The Packers have finally realized Aaron Jones is their most talented running back and they are starting to lean on the 23-year-old in recent weeks as Jones has touched the ball at least 14 times in three straight games. Jones is coming off a monster performance against the Dolphins as he finished with 145 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The opportunities should continue to come for Jones and there’s a chance he could even see more touches. The price tag has yet to catch up to the recent production as Jones is only $12,200. The Seahawks can be run against and with the recent volume, Jones is an elite target in all formats this week.
Wilson has only thrown 30 passes once since Week 3 and no wide receiver has caught more than five passes for the Seahawks since Week 6 when Doug Baldwin hauled in six passes for 91 yards. The low amount of volume makes it hard to trust any Seattle wide out in cash games. However, Tyler Lockett makes an intriguing tournament option as he has found the endzone seven times this season.
All signs point to the Packers playing without Randall Cobb as he continues to deal with a hamstring injury. This would once again secure Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the number two option for Rodgers which opens up a lot of opportunity. The price tag continues to be cheap for Valdes-Scantling as he is only $10,900. For a player that has finished with double digit Fantasy Draft points in his last five games, that is too cheap. Valdes-Scantling can be used in cash games as I think he has a stable floor.
However, if wanting to pay up for a stud, Davante Adams is the guy to target. Adams has received at least seven targets in every game this season and has scored a touchdown in every game but two. Adams is the focal point in the passing game and is an elite option in all formats. The only issue is making the salary work as he is the third highest priced receiver in Week 11.
Seahawks tight end Nick Vannett checks in as a punt price at only $5,400 and he has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. However, Vannett has finished with only one reception in three of his last five games. I can’t recommend a player that has a floor of one catch even with him finding the endzone in the last two weeks. If you want to complete punt the position in Week 11 than at least you know Vannett has touchdown upside, but the floor is extremely low.
On the other side, Packers tight end Jimmy Graham has all the accolades in his career, but he may have the same floor as Vannett. Graham entered Week 10 in a prime spot against a Dolphins defense that has struggled against the tight end position in recent weeks, yet he was only targeted once. I can’t even say Graham has touchdown upside as he has only scored two touchdowns this season. Despite consistently playing at least 80 percent of the snaps, the production hasn’t been there. We can look in a different direction in Week 11.
Both defenses rank in the top 15 in defensive DVOA, but I think the offenses will be on display in this game. The Packers do provide upside as they rank first in the league in sacks with 31 and the Seahawks have allowed the seventh most sacks in the league. The price tag isn’t bad either so if fading the Seahawks offense, they can be used as salary relief.