FantasyDraft Week 12 DFS Preview
(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
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I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Due to the craziness of the holiday week, we will breakdown each position in one article instead of two.
Cash Game Option:
Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck ($12,000) – Luck continues to play well as he has thrown at least three touchdown passes in every game since Week 4. The offensive line should get a ton of credit as Luck has not been sacked in five games this season. To put that in perspective, in 70 career games prior to the 2018 season, Luck had only eight games in which he did not get sacked. The Colts have a slate high team implied total of 29.25 and they are 7.5 point favorites against the Dolphins so they should be able to move the ball with ease. Luck still has a very appealing price tag of $12,000 and is a good starting point when constructing your lineups.
Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz ($11,000) – The Eagles signal caller was the bust of the week in Week 11 as he failed miserably against the Saints. Since Week 4, Wentz had not scored lower than 24 FantasyDraft points prior to his dud performance in New Orleans in which he scored 3.84 FantasyDraft points. I have to stress that we must have a short memory in daily fantasy football and right now, it appears many don’t. Wentz will be under five percent owned this week and has a price tag in the same range as rookie quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. The Eagles have one of the highest implied team totals this week as they currently are projected to score 26 points against the Giants. New York ranks 27th in pass defensive DVOA and are coming off a performance in which they allowed 359 passing yards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a prime bounce back spot for the Eagles passing game and it will be led by Wentz at very low ownership.
Cash Game Option:
Cleveland Browns Running Back Nick Chubb ($12,000) – The chalk running backs this week will be Saquon Barkley and Melvin Gordon and they are both in solid spots. If trying to go a little cheaper or fill out the flex spot, Chubb is in a great spot. The Browns were on a bye in Week 11 so there’s a chance people forget the last time the rookie touched the field he rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 33 yards and a touchdown. The Browns take on a Bengals defense that was just shredded on the ground by the Ravens and rank 30th in rush defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Chubb is consistently touching the ball 20 times and that won’t change in Week 12. Chubb makes an excellent play in all formats.
Jacksonville Jaguars Leonard Fournette ($11,900) – The running back has returned from a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury and is averaging 30 touches in the last two weeks. Volume is king in fantasy and there isn’t many running backs touching the ball as much as Fournette. He will always bring risk because of his injury history, but he has dominated the last two weeks and I don’t think anyone has noticed. The Jaguars will take on the Bills and are three point favorites so Fournette should continue to get as many touches as possible. Fournette will be under 10 percent owned yet has the same ceiling as many of the running backs on this slate.
*****Saturday morning update*****
Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is a true game-time decision as he is dealing with a knee and hamstring injury. It would be nice to get some clarity on this Sunday morning, but with rosters locking at kickoff, Gordon is more of a tournament option at this point. If he is unable to play, Austin Ekeler is an elite option in all formats at only $7,300.
Cash Game Option:
New York Giants Odell Beckham Jr. ($15,900) – Beckham will be extremely chalky, but for good reason. The Eagles defense ranks 26th overall and are decimated with injury in their secondary. There isn’t much needed in terms of analysis as Beckham is a stud and is a prime spot to smash. The price tag is expensive, but it can be done and still have a strong cash game lineup.
Seattle Seahawks Tyler Lockett (10,200) – Teammate Doug Baldwin is trending in the wrong direction this week and if he is inactive, Lockett should receive an uptick in targets. As Evan Silva of RotoWorld notes, the Panthers have struggled against slot receivers this season. Lockett’s price tag is annoying which makes him an easy fade in cash games, but he has scored four touchdowns in his last six games and there’s a strong chance he can find the endzone again.
Cash Game Option:
San Francisco 49ers George Kittle ($11,600) – The price tag is expensive, but it may be worth it in a match-up against the Buccaneers. The Bucs rank 31st against the tight end position in defensive DVOA and is allowing 77.9 yards per game to tight ends. Quarterback Nick Mullens loves throwing to Kittle and with great success as the duo have a completion percentage of 93. This is a prime spot for Kittle to smash and with a high floor, he makes for a solid cash game option.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cameron Brate ($7,000) – Teammate O.J. Howard has been placed on injured reserve which opens up the door for Brate to become a one-man show. Brate will be chalky so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to fade the tight end. However, his cheap price tag makes him an appealing target in all formats. The reason I don’t have him as a cash game option is he does have a low floor. It should be noted that in 2017 when Howard missed three games, Brate did not receive more than 5 targets or eclipse 40 yards receiving.
Baltimore Ravens ($6,400) – The Ravens continue to rank as one of the best defenses in football and are one of the best teams to get to the quarterback as they rank in the top 10 in adjusted sack rate. The Raiders have allowed three plus sacks in seven of the last eight games and travel to the east coast for a 1pm kickoff. The Ravens are currently 10.5 point favorites and the Raiders have an implied team total of 16.25. Fire up the Ravens in all formats.