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Cash Game Option:
Pittsburgh Steelers Jaylen Samuels ($8,900) – There are times when we just need to eat the chalk in cash games and this is one of those situations. Our goal is to finish in the top half and when a player will be on the verge of being owned in 50 percent of lineups or more, we have to do it. There is an argument to be made to fade Samuels in tournaments due to his high ownership and the possibility of Stevan Ridley cutting into Samuels’ workload. However, the price is way too cheap for a player that will see increased playing time after a lower leg injury will keep James Conner sidelined. The Steelers take on a Raiders defense that is ranked 31st in rush defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and Pittsburgh has an implied team total of 31.25. Samuels is a strong building block for Week 14.
New England Patriots Sony Michel ($11,000) –If you want a low owned running back that is an absolute smash spot, look no further than Michel. The Patriots are 7.5 point favorites over the Miami Dolphins and Michel has touched the ball at least 18 times in the last two games. The Dolphins rank 19th in rush defensive DVOA and allowed Bills quarterback Josh Allen to run wild in Week 13, Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack to average nearly six yards a carry in Week 12 and Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones to rush for 145 yards and two touchdowns in Week 10. I know it’s difficult to trust running backs from the Patriots, especially with Rex Burkhead back, but the Pats will expose a team’s weakness. I think Michel is an elite tournament target this week as the volume will once again be there along with a favorable game script.
Cash Game Option:
Los Angeles Chargers Keenan Allen ($15,300) – We have picked on the Bengals defense in recent weeks with great success and we’re not stopping now. The Bengals rank 29th overall in defensive DVOA and 27th against the pass and the Chargers have an implied team total of 31. Allen was targeted 19 times in Week 13 and has seen double digit targets in three of the last five games. The Chargers are favored by 14 which is the only concern for Allen as he could be benched in the fourth quarter. However, Allen should play a huge role in the Chargers being that much ahead. The price tag isn’t too expensive and the opportunity to light it up is too much to pass. I think Samuels and Allen are core targets this week in cash games.
Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones ($14,900) – If I can get an elite receiver at under nine percent ownership, sign me up. That is what it’s looking like this week for Jones as many people have been scared off from an awful Week 13 performance. Jones is also dealing with a foot issue that has kept him out of practice throughout the week, but he says he will play. Jones has finished eight games this season with over 100 receiving yards and is playing at an elite level. The Packers rank 20th in pass defensive DVOA and Jones has a top 15 match-up this week according to Pro Football Focus. We know Jones can take over a game and if people are going to overlook that, we need to capitalize.