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We nailed our cash game options in Week 15, but the tournament plays didn’t come through for us. This is a weird week with the numerous injuries heading into Week 16. I will be leaning on known quantities, but there’s a chance that a lot of value could emerge as kickoff approaches.
Running Backs
Cash Game Option:
Cleveland Browns Nick Chubb ($13,700) – The usual high priced running backs are all in play this week even though we must watch the status of Rams running back Todd Gurley. If pairing a middle tier running back with Ezekiel Elliott of the Cowboys which is a strong strategy, Chubb is your guy. The rookie gets a matchup against a Bengals defense that is 26th ranked in rush defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Depending what sports book you look at, the Browns are favored from 8.5 to 10. It doesn’t really matter, the Browns should dictate the flow of this game and Chubb should easily see 20 carries. The Browns also have a team implied total of 27.25 so this is prime spot for Chubb to smash. There are a lot of great running backs to target, but at this price point, Chubb is viable in all formats.
Tournament Option:
Pittsburgh Steelers Jaylen Samuels ($12,600) – We have a featured running back that is part of a game total that is over 50 and is potentially going to be under six percent owned in tournaments. Samuels had his breakout performance in Week 15 against the New England Patriots as he rushed for 142 yards on 19 carries. In Week 14, the rookie caught seven passes and he will once again be the lead runner for the Steelers in James Conner’s absence. It doesn’t matter who is in the backfield for the Steelers, they will be heavily involved. There’s a lot of good running backs this week which is why Samuels is being overlooked. I expect this game in New Orleans against the Saints to be high scoring and Samuels should play a major role. If this ownership trend continues on Sunday, I may be all in on Samuels in tournaments.
Wide Receivers
Cash Game Option:
Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins ($16,200) – There’s a way to fit a couple of running back studs along with a high priced receiver in cash games and that should be the prefer build in Week 16. If that is the strategy to use, Hopkins ranks at the top of the list. The wide out has continued to play well all season and is coming off a 10 catch, 170 yard and two touchdown performance against the New York Jets. The Texans now face an Eagles secondary that is ranked 20th in pass defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Hopkins is also heavily targeted as he has double digit targets in three straight games. This should be another spot where Hopkins smashes and the investment will be worth it.
Tournament Option:
Seattle Seahawks Doug Baldwin ($9,800) – The late night hammer is always fun as you always have a reason to watch the final game of the day. The Seahawks host the Chiefs in game that has an over/under of 55. This is a prime game stack and Baldwin should be considered. The wide receiver is cheaply priced and is facing a Chiefs pass defense that is ranked 21st in defensive DVOA. We know the Chiefs have the ability to put up points easily so in order for the Seahawks to keep up, quarterback Russell Wilson may have to air it out. Baldwin has scored three touchdowns in his last two games and has a strong chance to find pay dirt once again. This is an elite game environment and we need to have exposure from both sides.