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Welcome to Week 7 of the football season. I’ll be providing you with some DFS content, covering Running Backs and Defenses. We’ll take a look at some potential cash-game plays as well as some pivots that could be used in tournaments. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to reach out in the comments section below.
Cash Game Options:
Dalvin Cook, MIN ($15,000) at DET
With no Christian McCaffrey on the slate, we have to actually think about what high-priced running back to lock into our lineup. Dalvin Cook gets a matchup with their NFC North rival, the Lions. The Lions have struggled against the run, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Enter Sir Dalvin Cook, who has beasted out all year. Cook has put up the second-most all-purpose yards this year and has found the end zone six times. Additionally, Cook’s 17% target share ranks seventh among running backs. We know the Vikings want to run the ball and this is a perfect matchup for them to keep it rolling on the ground.
Leonard Fournette, JAX ($12,900) at CIN
Leonard Fournette is expected to be super chalky this week, but it’s good chalk. The Bengals provide running lanes galore and are tied with the Dolphins for allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. While match-up is important to a point, workload is king. Through six weeks, Fournette has been on the field for 94.9% of the Jaguars’ offensive plays. Additionally, he’s carried the ball on 91.2% of the Jaguars running back carries and has an 18% target share, tied for eighth highest among all backs. Despite a giant workload and the third-most rushing yards in the league, Fournette has found pay dirt just once. Touchdown regression will catch up to Fournette and it should start this week.
Josh Jacobs, OAK ($10,600) at GBP
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Josh Jacobs on the field, so let me refresh your memory. In Week 5, the Raiders traveled to London to take on the vaunted Bears defense. Jacobs came out and gashed the Bears for 123 yards on 26 carries and ended up in the end zone twice. To make sure I was paying attention, he added three catches for 20 yards. Speaking of gashing, let’s talk about the Packers’ run defense. The Packers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing rushers, behind just Miami, Cincinnati, and Detroit. With the Raiders having an extra week to prepare for the Packers, I expect them to come out with a game plan to ride Jacobs to another big day.
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL ($14,800) vs. PHI
This tournament play is all about ignoring the matchup and focusing on the workload. The Eagles have been really good against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. However, we’re going to ignore that and focus on Ezekiel Elliott‘s growing workload. After playing just 61% of the snaps in the first three weeks, he’s been on the field on 93% of the offensive snaps since. With this play, you’re getting potentially 20-25 touches from a top running back at low ownership, I’m just not guaranteeing the production against the Eagles defense.
Joe Mixon, CIN ($9,500) vs. JAX
I wish I could just ignore the Bengals, but alas, they have a decent matchup. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game on the year, which should help make up for the awful Bengals’ offensive line. Just when it looked like the Bengals were going to get a little help on the offensive line, it comes out that Cordy Glenn is at odds with the team and wants his release from the team. If the Bengals want to win a game this year, they’ll have to get Joe Mixon going. He had a dismal 10 yards on eight carries which, silver lining, should keep his ownership down. Mixon will get the workload we’re looking for and has a decent matchup at low ownership – the perfect combination for a GPP.
Devin Singletary, BUF ($9,500) vs. MIA
Don’t you laugh! David Montgomery has had a 67% and 69% snap share over the last two weeks. He also has 77% of the running back carries in that time and eight targets, which is good for a 12% target share. The Raiders run defense has done a decent job stopping the run, or at least appear to have. In their Week 3 matchup with the Vikings, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison shredded the Raiders for 168 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 4, the Raiders were up 21-10 against the Colts, who were then forced to abandon the rush. With Chase Daniel at quarterback, I expect the Bears to rely on their defense and Montgomery to control the game.
Cash Game Option:
San Francisco 49ers ($6,500) at WAS
The Bills ($7,100) get the magic Miami matchup, so if you’re willing to pay up the dough, they’re the top defense. You can save yourself $600 by pivoting down to the 49ers, who also have an incredible matchup against the Redskins. Washington will be looking to build off their first victory in which Adrian Peterson hopped into the way-back machine to run for 118 yards on 23 carries……against the Dolphins. Now that the Redskins will be facing a legit defense, we should see the team that’s turned the ball over 11 times in their first six games and has been inept overall. The 49ers have allowed just 12.8 points per game and 237.4 yards of total offense per game, both good for second-lowest in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers ($5,200) at TEN
After seeing Marcus Mariota sacked 25 times in the first six games, HC Mike Vrabel decided he had seen enough and will turn to their savior, Ryan Tannehill? Oof. Tannehill replaced Mariota early in the third quarter on their Week 6 game and proceeded to get sacked four times and throw a pick. The Chargers defense will get to tee-off on Tannehill in a game that features the second-lowest total on the slate.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)