Ravens vs. Steelers
Ravens
Will Joe Flacco be able to take advantage of a weak Steelers secondary?
So far this season, the Steelers’ secondary hasn’t been great, giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes‘ amazing six-touchdown game, and 411 yards and three touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. Enter Joe Flacco, a quarterback who’s definitely not as good as Mahomes and probably better than normal Fitzpatrick (not the Fitzmagic we’re all seeing). It’s a primetime game between two of the biggest rivals in the sport, so will Flacco rise to the occasion? It’s nearly impossible to say, it’s Joe Flacco. If you showed up from the future and told me Flacco threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns or 130 yards and three interceptions, I wouldn’t be shocked at either. That being said, there’s reason to believe Flacco could have a good game here. The Ravens have been remarkably effective in the red zone so far this year, and total in the NFL, Flacco has the fourth-most red zone touchdown passes and third-highest red zone completion percentage. At the same time, the Steelers have the second-worst red zone defense in the league since the start of last year. So could that spell points for Flacco? I think it might.
Will we see value in the wide receivers?
I think so, but it’s tough to say which ones. I like the matchup Michael Crabtree has this week, likely against Coty Sensabaugh, who hasn’t been particularly great in coverage this year. Crabtree also has two inches of height and about 30 pounds on Sensabaugh too, which makes him a very logical red zone target. But let’s not forget the talent of John Brown, who’s been pretty solid this year. He’ll likely see Joe Haden this week, which is going to be tricky, but Brown is a supremely talented receiver, so it’s entirely possible he has some value here. I think Crabtree is the safer play though.
Did you forget Willie Snead?
No, I didn’t. I like Willie Snead to be honest, but he’s just not as involved in the passing game. He’s clearly the odd man out between Crabtree and Brown, so I can’t imagine a scenario in which you feel comfortable starting him.
What’s up with the running game?
Last week, I said that Week 1 and Week 2 were unique games that led to Alex Collins seeing a significant decrease in usage (just 16 carries between both games). Last week was a lot more normal, with Collins seeing 18 carries, and what did he do? He was efficient, ending with 68 yards and one touchdown against a pretty solid run defense. This week, he’ll be seeing another run defense that’s been pretty decent and has only allowed one rushing touchdown all year so far. Like I said though, the Ravens are pretty efficient in the red zone, and if they’re in close, I’m betting the ball goes to Collins. However, I could see them throwing the ball to someone like Crabtree too, so it’s hard to count on Collins for that touchdown. Still, I think he’s a very good runner and should put up RB2 numbers this week.
Is Javorius Allen worth a flex play?
Ehhhh maybe in a deep league. I have a tough time trusting him, though it’s a bit easier in PPR leagues given how involved he is in the passing game. He has seen his fair share of work in the red zone as well so far this year, with a touchdown in every game, but that’s not a streak that’s going to keep up. He’s got a bit of a safer floor in PPR leagues, so I don’t mind tossing him out there in that situation, but in standard leagues, he’s pretty touchdown-dependent.
Anything worth mentioning at the tight end position?
The Ravens’ first-round pick, Hayden Hurst, is hoping he’ll play Sunday as he’s recovering from a stress fracture in his foot. I like Hurst a lot, he’s a talented pass catcher, but I can’t trust him this week if he’s active. After that though, if he’s healthy, he’s going to be an interesting guy given his talent and how much the Ravens love throwing to the tight end.
-Ben Palmer
Steelers
Will the Steelers prolific offense be slowed down in a defensive slugfest against their rival Ravens?
This may be a new chapter in the Steelers’ rivalry with the Ravens, as the last time the two teams met they set a record for most points scored in their rivalry’s history with 77. The Steelers’ offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards and 7th in points and should be taken seriously in any home matchup. The Ravens defense has been solid, with the notable exception of their lone road game in Cincinnati. Andy Dalton threw four touchdowns and A.J. Green scored three touchdowns, boding well for the Steelers passing game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards the last time these teams played, giving him his usual QB1 ceiling in home games. The days of the 13-10 Steelers vs. Ravens games may be over in today’s pass-happy NFL.
Was Vance McDonald’s breakout for real?
In his return from injury, Vance McDonald had a stiff arm for the ages on his way to a 75-yard touchdown, making him an excellent DFS play. He would finish the day with 4 catches on 5 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. At the struggling tight end position this year, McDonald definitely has value and should be rostered.
Reasons for concern include a near even splitting of the snaps with Jesse James last week, with James leading with 50% and McDonald coming in second with 48% of snaps. He is also a clear #4 on the priority list behind the Steelers elite wide receivers and their solid running back. James has been dependable and will eat into McDonald’s snaps all year.
In the end, it seemed reasonable that McDonald would be eased back in from his injury, and he will likely see even more snaps this week. James won’t go away, but McDonald is a much better passing game option, which is the primary focus of the Steelers right now. McDonald is a boom or bust tight end this week.
Who will have the bigger game, Antonio Brown or JuJu Smith-Schuster?
This is becoming a legitimate weekly question in fantasy, as JuJu Smith-Schuster has out-performed Antonio Brown so far this year. How much has to do with the added attention that Brown receives, and how much is Smith-Schuster ascending another level is hard to tell. But I’ll take JuJu’s explosive upside for now, as he has averaged 13.2 yards per catch compared to Brown’s 8.8. The last two weeks have also seen Smith-Schuster out target Brown. Both are excellent options, of course, but JuJu seems to be playing the best football he’s ever played right now.
Should we be concerned about James Conner and the Steelers run game?
The Steelers rank a disappointing 23rd in the league in both rushing yards and yards per carry in 2018. James Conner has been bottled up on the ground the last two weeks, leaning on his touchdowns for his fantasy production. While there is enough concern to not place him among the elite fantasy running backs, Conner is still an extremely valuable player. The Steelers have still produced the 4th most rushing touchdowns in the league, and he catches enough passes to supplement his underperforming yardage. And he is seeing almost all of his team’s running back workload. Start him with confidence every week.
Do any of the lesser options stand out this week?
Not really. Jesse James can be moved on from in most leagues. The backup running backs are virtually non-existent. James Washington is playing more snaps but clearly falls behind Smith-Schuster, Brown, Conner, and the tight end position in usage numbers. There’s a good chance Washington has a big game one of these weeks, but predicting it seems impossible. Outside of an occasional large tournament in DFS he shouldn’t be played yet. Ryan Switzer is an unexciting gadget player, although he did get a red zone target and touchdown last week.
Is the Steelers defense worth a shot this week?
If you are streaming defenses, you could do worse. This isn’t a play at a defense in a low scoring game. But the Steelers have shown an ability to make plays and record sacks, the most important things for fantasy. If they can grab a lead and force Flacco to throw, they may have a good week. The Steelers rank 2nd in the league in sacks and Flacco can be an easy target at times. Being at home is an added bonus.
Week 4 Predictions:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB): 30/40 350 yards passing 3TDs, 1 int
James Conner (RB): 17 carries, 80 yards rushing, 4 catches, 35 yards receiving
Antonio Brown (WR): 9 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR): 8 catches, 125 yards, 2 TDs
James Washington (WR): 2 catches, 35 yards
Vance McDonald (TE): 5 catches, 55 yards
Jesse James (TE): 1 catch, 10 yards
Chris Boswell (K): 2 FGs, 3 Extra points
Steelers (D): 4 sacks, 1 int, 1 fum rec, 20 points allowed
-Erik Smith
Start Golloday or Tate this week? Cowboys are awesome against the slot, but Sean Lee is out and Tate is safer……