Dolphins vs. Patriots
Dolphins
Miami comes into their Week 4 matchup sporting a 3-0 record and sole possession of first place in the AFC East. Typically, this is the point where things go wrong, as the Dolphins are matched up against New England Patriots, a team that typically wins the AFC East. Thus far, the Dolphins have faced the Titans in a sloppy Week 1 game, the Jets in a Week 2 affair that they should have run away with, and the Raiders in a Week 3 game that was won with smoke and mirrors. The Patriots come into this game at 1-2 on the back of a sub-standard defense, a weak receiving game, and a very injured running game.
Will the Run Game be Abandoned This Week Too?
The Dolphins ran 11 designed runs last week. 11! Worse yet, Kenyan Drake saw one fewer carry than Frank Gore (though with 4 targets and a healthy 66% snap percentage). What happened you might ask? The Raiders held the ball for over 38 minutes and led the game well into the third quarter. In the act of playing catch up, the playcalling for the Dolphins moved entirely to the air game, only using the running backs to provide extra protection for Ryan Tannehill because the line was getting manhandled all day. The Raiders are not the best run defense in the league, but they are better than the Patriots. In their current condition, the Patriots have allowed the Lions to break a 70-game streak of RB’s failing to amass 100 yards, which bodes well for Miami getting Drake back on track.
More Misdirection in our Future
Just over 10 years ago, the Miami Dolphins shocked the NFL and the Patriots by utilizing Ronnie Brown and Rickie Williams in the Wildcat formation to make up for a weeker passing game. Coming off the heels of a game where the Dolphins won on the back of 2 reverses and a fleaflicker in the final 17 minutes of the game, more exotic formations (featuring Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson) might be in order. Alongside the speed and quickness of Grant and Wilson, the Dolphins will be the beneficiary of DeVante Parker having had a full games worth of reps last week, Kenny Stills turning into a more well-rounded receiver, and Danny Amendola and Kenyan Drake available in short-yardage situations all over the field. Bill Belichick is well known for his defensive acumen, especially when he has time to prepare, but the Dolphins may be able to keep the Patriots on their back foot through Week 4.
-David Fenko
Patriots
It’s just as we all expected to write up before week 4 of the regular season, as the 1-2 Dolphins go into Gillette against the 3-0 Patriots. Wait a minute, uh, yeah. Scratch that. Wow. So yes, the 3-0 Dolphins go in to Gillette to face off against the 1-2 Patriots. Yeah, so this will be an interesting one. The Patriots, perennial AFC East favorites and standbys, they for the first time in well over a decade head into their second home game 2 games behind AFC East leader Miami, looking to right the ship, hopefully taking all their vitamins before arriving on the field Sunday at 1 o’clock. The offense so far has looked completely off the rails, and the defense is noticeably slower than any level of speed they showcased in the preseason, as they attempted to find identity removed from Matt Patricia’s system. Let’s dive in and see what we should expect from New England in Week 4!
Just Brady being Brady?
We are a month into this season, a week out from seeing Julian Edelman back on the field, and we still are a bit unsure of what we can glean from the Tom Brady. Through three weeks, the average of his completion percentages are mostly on point with career numbers (63.03 average this year thru three weeks, compared to 63.9 lifetime), however where I think we see a huge discrepancy is in the average yards per game. Where his career average is 260.9, so far this year he’s barely over 200 at 214, and is only averaging 21 passes per game. Taking out this small sample size, the low overall pass attempts showcases an overall worry from the Patriots in getting the ball out quickly and avoiding Brady being hit often, and a generalized worry that the offensive line is not matured and prepared enough to handle a heavy volume of passing plays holding the pocket for Brady. This has lead to an abundance of running game calls, a lack of passing opportunities for Brady, and a briskness in which Brady has had to let the ball out quicker than he would like, to targets he doesn’t fully trust yet. This is a recipe for disaster, in my mind, and until we have an opportunity to see Edelman back on the field with him, and Sony Michel has settled in with Brady, I think we may see this slowly get better, rather than have it explode out to fantasy production. This is a division game, and I’m sure Bill Belichick is beyond frustrated with what he has seen so far, so I have a sneaking suspicion we see a solid, if not unsexy game from Brady this week.
Fantasy expectations:
Tom Brady: 25/35, 350 yards, 2 Td’s, 1 Int
Patchwork running back situation mired in the swamp
I don’t feel …so good. The grip of Thanos is slowly gripping down on half of the Patriots backfield, and it really feels soul crushing, just a calendar’s turn from season’s start, and we have already seen half of the crowded Patriot’s backfield snatched by the injured reserve, Jeremy Hill with a torn ACL in week 1 of the season, and we watched as Rex Burkhead was quietly placed on the injured reserve just this week for a neck injury, just a week removed from barely making it back into the game plan after a concussion in week 2. So what’s the running game entail for the Patriots for the season? Let’s leverage from the snap counts, because no one can dig into the mind of Belichick otherwise, nor will he allow you to! From the remaining two backs, James White took 48 percent of the snaps in Week 1, 56 in Week 2, and 52 in Week 3. Michel, who returned in Week 2 after returning from a knee draining operation, received 21 percent of the snaps in Week 2, and 48 in week 3. With only nomadic Kenjon Barner added to the backfield, we could anticipate a hearty filling of Michel and White pie for week 4. Per Football Outsiders rankings, this is not an easy test against the Dolphins in week 4, for the rushing game, which seems unlikely given their battles from years before. The Dolphins have the 6th overall weighted defense against the run, and are starting to blossom as a sneaky good defense as it stands. I’d expect the game plan to still stick to pass heavy as they would like it to be, and some potential for dual back formations, and short yardage situations with James Develin. Not a crazy game for the running side of the ball, but I’d expect Michel to ramp up to over 50 percent snaps, and White to see some edge work as a receiver as well. And here’s to hoping that Michel can break out, because I really want to make his nickname “The Five Foot Assassin” come to fruition.
Fantasy Expectations:
Sony Michel: 15 carries, 85 yards, 3 receptions, 24 yards, 1 TD
James White: 6 yards, 22 yards, 8 receptions, 100 yards
Receiving game attempting feng shui in second home game
The receiving game has left us much to be desired so far, both in volume, and fantasy numbers, as we watch Brady frustrated, and looking to find someone who is reliable to garner receptions. In only one game has he completed more than 25 receptions, and in two of those three games, they’ve faced two of the bottom half of NFL defenses, per Fantasy Outsiders. While we attempt to find a place to fit in frustrating but All-Star caliber upside wide receiver, Josh Gordon, the current landscape for wide receivers will be Phillip Dorsett (nursing an injury early in the week), Chris Hogan (seemed to be positioning to be a “fill in” for Edelman, but hasn’t locked in with Brady), and Inspector Gadget player, Cordarelle Patterson more than likely showcasing his absurd speed on deep routes to take the top off the defense. More than anything, expect if Gordon plays that he’ll dip his toe into a very small play-set, while the offense attempts to pull themselves from the muck with their standbys for one more week sans Edelman. Expect a lot of Rob Gronkowski all over the field( the Chewie to Brady’s Han), a large amount of James White on the edges, or in screen pass/circle routes to the middle of the field, and a light seasoning of Gordon, along with Dorsett and Hogan picking up the slack.
Fantasy Expectations:
Phillip Dorsett: 5 for 70
Rob Gronkowski: 8 for 80, 1 TD
Cordarelle Patterson: 2 for 40
Chris Hogan: 5 for 35
Is the defense salvageable? Or back to the junk heap of midtier they were in 2017?
Right now it’s safe to say we keep tabs only on them for future use. They have talented players in Stefan Gilmore, Patrick Chung, D’onta Hightower, and some lesser pieces. Losing Ja’Whaun Bentley is not helpful, as he seemed to be the spark plug for a younger era of Patriot’s defensive players. He was flying up the depth chart so quickly he was actively play calling in the preseason for the whole defensive squad, and is now out for at least the length of injured reserve. We could absolutely look at this squad and see some potential, but I would well enough stay a few feet away and possibly poke it with a stick to see if it wakes up over time.
-Matt Bevins
Start Golloday or Tate this week? Cowboys are awesome against the slot, but Sean Lee is out and Tate is safer……