Bills vs. Packers
Bills
The Buffalo Bills are flying high after a huge upset 27-6 victory over the Minnesota Vikings last week, and now they head to Lambeau Field to face QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in week 4. Let’s take a look at the potentially fantasy relevant information that you need to know heading into this game!
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen had a career-best game last week, can he continue that sort of success in his 3rd career NFL start?
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has about 11 more NFL seasons of experience than Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen. Still, Allen has been able to lead his team effectively during his short time as the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills and I think he could again this week against a Packers team that has given up 23+ points each week and ranks 23rd overall in yards allowed per week. Last week, Allen had three scores (2 rushing), and was 15 of 22 passing for 196 passing yards. Remember that he only had 4 pass attempts in the 2nd half because of the Bills early lead so in theory, he could have done even more. That performance was worth 27.7 Fantasy points which was good for 5th best among QBs last week. This week, ESPN have Allen projected for 15.3 points and Yahoo has him projected for 15.19. If he can combine another solid rushing game this week with some hits in the deep passing game (note that he’s had a couple near misses in the last two weeks including a brutal drop by WR Robert Foster on a perfectly placed throw that should have been a TD), Allen will provide surplus value for those who have him on their fantasy roster.
RB LeSean McCoy says he’ll play this week against the Packers. How effective can he be coming off injury and how many touches should we expect from him?
RB LeSean McCoy has come out said that he’s going to play this week. Ribs are a tough injury to manage for anyone, let alone a RB who takes a hit on nearly every play. I expect this to impact how McCoy is used, and I could see McCoy looking to bounce things outside frequently and being utilized in the screen passing game to try and avoid big hits. Even if he’s able to play through his rib injury this Sunday effectively, it makes sense for Buffalo to manage his workload and so I expect a true RB by committee situation this week with RBs Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy getting a fair amount of touches. I do expect the RBs to be a big part of the offense this week in what should be a run-heavy scheme designed to bleed the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. According the Football Outsiders, the Packers rank 26th in DVOA rush defense this season and were gouged for 166 rushing yards by the Redskins last week. Green Bay lost solid DT Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) for what may be several weeks and will likely have a hard time stopping runs between the tackles with him out. Between the tackles running should favor Chris Ivory, and I believe that he’s the RB to start this week if you are counting on the Bills running game.
Can anyone in the receiving group step up to fantasy relevance this week?
I’ll answer this quickly at the top and say no. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has notably spread the wealth when it comes to targets. He targeted passes to nine different receivers last week and while that’s a good thing in real life, for fantasy purposes, it means that relevance from the receiving group will be tough to find.
Presumed top receiving option WR Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t performed well this season at all. In three games, he has six catches and 58 yards on 15 targets. He also ranks in a tie for 2nd worst in the league with just a 1.4 avg yards of separation at target mark which means he’s forced into contested catch situations consistently. Last week he only had three catches on five targets. Those two misses? Clear drops, including one on the goal line. The continued red-zone looks are encouraging, but he needs to be better for his young QB. WR Zay Jones hasn’t had drop issues with a solid 6 catches on 10 targets so far this year and continues to show strong efforts in both his route running and blocking, but he hasn’t made much of an impact in the receiving game due to a lack of targets. He’s getting open reasonably well with a 2.4 avg yards of separation at target mark which ranks ahead of names like Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins and Chargers WR Keenan Allen among others, and I feel like there’s a breakout game coming at some point. He’s still not worthy of starting in fantasy until Allen starts looking his way more.
TE Charles Clay continues to underwhelm from a fantasy perspective, but he did secure 2 of his 3 targets last week with the one drop being in the end zone on a play in which the defender forced him into a difficult 1-handed catch situation. It’s clear that Allen doesn’t rely on his TEs the same way that former Bills QB Tyrod Taylor did, and that means that Clay should be downgraded to a non-starting role in fantasy at this point.
The Bills held the Vikings passing attack to 296 passing yards on 40 completions for just a 5.4 yards per completion mark. Can the D slow Packers QB Aaron Rodgers down enough to keep the Bills in the game?
After allowing 75 points in the first six quarters of the season, the Bills have held opponents to nine points in the last six. The difference has been Head Coach Sean McDermott taking over the defensive play calling from defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Bills defensive line was dominant last week in getting to the QB, but may struggle to do again against a Packers offensive line that PFF currently ranks 5th overall and has the 7th best pass-blocking grade in the NFL after 3 weeks.
The key will be the health of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers going into this game. Arguably one of the best quarterback ever, Rodgers has multiple lower-body injuries hampering him. One leg has had a nagging knee injury, his left one. When he throws and plants his front foot, it just looks awkward now. Same when he scrambles. On his right leg, he had a bit of a hamstring situation last week, but Rodgers said that’s all good. If the Bills can apply pressure and force him into throws with unstable footing, then they stand a chance to force inaccurate passes which means potential turnovers. Given the talent of the offensive line of the Packers, I think that’s a poor bet to occur consistently and I would advise leaving the Bills D/ST on the waiver wire this week.
-Adam Garland
Packers
What is the strength of the Bills defense and how will it affect Aaron Rodgers?
The dominance the Bills defense displayed over the Vikings offense was surprising. The Vikings went nearly the entire game without crossing half field! It happened because the Bills edge rushers Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes pressured Kirk Cousins on nearly every play. For all the talent on this Vikings team, the offensive line was exposed. The good news for the Packers is that his left tackle David Bakhtiari is the best pass blocking tackle in the league and should be able to handle these edge rushers. Although Aaron Rodgers is still hobbled, their quick passing game and strong line anchored by Bakhtiari will score a good amount of points. The Packers have faced three very good defenses and the Bills remain another tough challenge. I expect Rodgers to have his best week as he slowly gets back into form but do not overreact to his performance in these tough matchups.
Fantasy Expectations:
Aaron Rodgers: 260 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int
How good can Geronimo Allison be? Will his hot start continue?
Geronimo Allison’s fantasy production has been better than expected, scoring touchdowns in 2 of the three weeks and drawing enough targets to have good yardage totals. It seems he has carved out a role as the deep threat in this offense which makes him a high upside play every week. However, Allison is still running fewer routes than Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Jimmy Graham. He is also fourth on the team in targets as well. Relying on a fourth option, even in an Aaron Rodgers led offense, can be very tricky. A fourth option can disappear in any given game and that is important to remember for Allison, even though he has been hot lately.
Fantasy Expectations:
Geronimo Allison: 4 catches, 60 yards
Will Tre’Davious White shadow Davante Adams? How will this affect the other pass catchers?
Tre’Davious White, if you are unfamiliar, is the Bills second-year standout corner. He allowed a passer rating of only 64.9 on balls thrown his way last year which is extremely impressive. You may remember him as the guy Gronk forearm smashed because he was frustrated someone could actually cover him. Point is, White is talented and if he shadows Davante Adams, Adams would be in for a very tough week. Generally, the Bills do not shadow but White will still face Adams and Geronimo Allison regularly on the outside. This gives Adams and Allison a bit of a downgrade this week while boosting slot wide receiver Randall Cobb. Outside of the receivers, Jimmy Graham has been better the past two weeks and will always have touchdown upside.
Fantasy Expectations:
Davante Adams: 6 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 8 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD
Jimmy Graham: 4 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD
Who is the running back to start this week?
This question does not really have anything to do with this matchup. While the Bills run defense has been decent, the key is trying to decipher who will get touches. In his first game back Aaron Jones had the most carries on the team—with 6. Jamal Williams had 5, Ty Montgomery had 4. The game script was not favorable for the run game but it is pretty obvious the Packers are going with a committee. Until one of these backs starts to dominate the touches in this offense none of them are good plays. I think Jones could be that guy moving forward but this week they should all be on the bench.
Fantasy Expectations:
Jamal Williams: 8 carries, 30 yards
Aaron Jones: 7 carries, 35 yards
Ty Montgomery: 3 carries, 20 yards; 3 catches 30 yards
– Stephen Dudas
Start Golloday or Tate this week? Cowboys are awesome against the slot, but Sean Lee is out and Tate is safer……