Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 4

Lions vs. Cowboys

Lions

Welcome to Week Four of the Detroit Lions Wild Ride. After having lost two games that they probably should have won, the Lions came to play on Sunday Night Football and put on a dominant show against the New England Patriots. Now comes the real test: proving that it wasn’t a fluke. The Lions were showing signs of life throughout the second half of the 49ers game in Week Two, put it all together against the Patriots in Week Three in what might have been the most complete performance the Lions have had in a decade against, and now we get to find out if this is a team that can truly compete in the stacked NFC.

Is the Offensive Line for real?

Normally this segment begins with a question about Matthew Stafford’s potential performance in this week, but today we need to check back on the most pressing unit on the offense. The offensive line coming together to protect Stafford and deliver consistent holes in the running game is the reason why the team looked so in sync against the Patriots, and a continued performance from this group is going to spell a lot of misery for opponents.

Alas, I wouldn’t say we’re going to see a repeat performance from Sunday. In the first place, T.J. Lang and Frank Ragnow have both been limited in practice this week. The Patriots are also 30th in the league with 4 sacks on the season (just one in front of last place Oakland. Who knew losing a Hall of Fame level sack artist would lower sack numbers?) and New England is also giving up 4.7 yards per carry on the season. It’s entirely possible that the line looked so good last week because of the defense on the other side of them.

That being said, this line has a lot of talent and has had a ton go into them. Multiple first round picks and a ton of free agent money says to the layman that this should be at least an average line, if not above average or elite. Hopefully some of the confidence gained last week translates to some better output on a weekly basis, but with the Cowboys actually having a solid run game and pass rush I’m not expecting the world out of them.

Are Stafford’s efficiency numbers enough to carry him with low passing attempts?

It might not be this week, it might not be next week, but at some point there’s going to be a game where Stafford doesn’t throw the ball 35+ times. For the past three seasons, there’s always one or two weird outliers in which he throws the ball about 25 times in the entire game. First off, that’s pretty rare (which is great for fantasy purposes). Second, every time it’s happened Stafford has still put up excellent numbers. Here’s a quick list of every game since 2014 with less than 30 attempts:

10/25/2015 vs Vikings:    18/26, 256 yards, 2 TDs

12/21/2015 @ Saints:      22/25, 254 yards, 3 TDs

10/09/2016 vs Eagles:     19/25, 180 yards, 3 TDs

10/23/2016 vs Redskins: 18/29, 266 yards, 1 TD

09/18/2017 @ Giants:      15/21, 122 yards, 2 TDs

11/12/2017 vs Browns:     17/26, 249 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

12/03/2017 @ Ravens:    24/29, 292 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

12/31/2017 vs Packers:   20/29, 323 yards, 3 TDs

The alarming part of this trend is that four of the eight came last season, but the noteworthy thing is that the Lions only keep him below 30 if they’re doing really well. The Lions went 6-2 over this sample. He isn’t kept below 30 attempts because the defense is stifling him, it’s only when the Lions score enough points through the air in the first place that he’s able to lay off a bit. The Lions have zero rushing TDs so far on the season. See where this is going? Unless Stafford has thrown 2-3 TDs and the defense has held the lead, he’s going to keep slinging the ball.

In addition, his efficiency yards look awful if you just sort all the QBs. However, if you remove his massive Week One outlier, Stafford has a 68.5% completion rating and a 6.84 Y/A. The Y/A isn’t anything to write home about, which is a little concerning, but if we simulate a low passing attempt game with those stats and assume he’s only done passing because of the points he’s put up, we get something like a 17/25 for 175 yards and 2-3 TDs. That’s a good place to have a floor for a quarterback outside the top 3-4. With Dallas’ inept offense this far into the season, we’re going to put that as our ‘worst case scenario’. I’m also going to tag on an interception to his ceiling, because when Stafford starts slinging the ball 50+ times it more often than not ends up in the opposing team’s hands at least once.

Expectations for Sunday vs Dallas:

Matthew Stafford Floor:     17/25, 175 yards, 2 TDs

Matthew Stafford Ceiling:  35/51, 350 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT

Can you bench any of the Lions receivers?

Chances are no, but this might be the game to do it. The issue is who to bench, and it’s a hard call. I think Golden Tate is a lock to start this week. He specializes in catching the short ball in quick throw situations, and that seems like it might be a major part of the game plan this week with the Cowboys pass rush being so impressive. On top of that, Sean Lee is out for Sunday. Everyone is aware that linebackers don’t traditionally cover wide receivers, but there’s some variance here to consider. Sean Lee is incredible in coverage, and not having that swiss army knife in zone or even in man means the defense gets a lot easier for Stafford to read. Lee is also a force of nature when chasing down and tackling a ball carrier, and losing that against the nearly untacklable Tate is a big hit. Sean Lee is also adept at changing defensive package in response to audibles and formation changes on the offense, another huge loss for the Cowboys defense.

So it comes down to Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. I’m not nearly as low on Marvin Jones as some experts seem to be, especially watching Stafford regain his accuracy last week. Let’s not forget the several open deep routes Jones ran and was targeted on in the first three weeks. That being said, he’s very boom/bust in this match-up. There isn’t going to be a lot of time to throw the deep bomb, and we can’t assume that one good deep target will automatically result in a deep TD for Marvin. He’s still playable, especially if you’re looking for a high ceiling play to catch up to a superior opposing team in fantasy, but I would hesitate to start him in a projected close game.

Also, come on. Have you read any of these previews? Of course I’m not going to tell you to bench Golladay. In hyperbole, he’s the best wide receiver to ever grace the planet with his presence. In reality, he has the talent to end up as the second best Lions wide receiver ever. I have very high praise for Lions receivers of the 90s Herman Moore, Johnnie Morton, and Brett Perriman. Gail Cogdill was a prodigy well before the time of the wide receiver in the 60s. Golden Tate is even making his mark on Lions receiver history. However, Golladay is legitimately something special. If you aren’t watching Lions games, do yourself a favor and check some out. The highlights are one thing, but the presence Golladay has on the field every single play and target is special. You shouldn’t be benching him in any league unless you’re insanely stacked at WR.

Expectations for Sunday at Dallas:

Golden Tate floor:     8 targets, 6 receptions, 60 yards

Golden Tate ceiling:  14 targets, 12 receptions, 130 yards, 1 TD

Marvin Jones floor:  4 targets, 2 receptions, 30 yards

Marvin Jones ceiling: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 140 yards, 2 TDs

Kenny Golladay floor: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 65 yards

Kenny Golladay ceiling: 14 targets, 10 receptions, 130 yards, 2 TDs

Is this the week for Kerryon Johnson?

A resounding no.

Unfortunate, I know. I’ve been a huge touter of Kerryon Johnson since he was drafted, and it’s going to come. Trust me. But unless you’re forced by bye week or injury situation to start Kerryon, I wouldn’t. For all his offensive production last week, he still tied LeGarrette Blount in carries. He did well with them and looked great, but the Patriots run defense isn’t very good.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys run defense is solid. If the Lions are going to get the offense moving this week in Dallas, it’s probably going to be through the air. In the re-cap of Week One I mentioned Kerryon’s solid pass blocking ability being a huge factor in him getting on the field, and it may end up being the case again this week. However, with that Cowboys pass rush, that’s because he’ll probably actually have to stay in the pocket and do that blocking. Getting on the field is a benefit if you’re running routes or being handed the ball, but if he’s being asked to pick up blitzes or assist against DeMarcus Lawrence, he’s not going to be getting the ball all that much.

Meanwhile, Blount has become pretty much irrelevant from a fantasy perspective. We’ve seen very little of the Lions goal line snaps because they’re never on the goal line. A rushing TD would be huge, but I wouldn’t be expecting it.

Theo Riddick had what was essentially a dud last week, but it was mostly because the vertical passing game was working so well. I expect him to have a huge role this week with the same reasoning as Tate. Both the Giants and Panthers had success throwing the ball to RBs against Dallas.

Expectations for Sunday at Dallas:

Kerryon Johnson floor: 8 rushes, 21 yards, 1 reception, 5 yards

Kerryon Johnson ceiling: 15 rushes, 80 yards, 3 receptions, 25 yards, 1 TD

LeGarrette Blount floor: 5 rushes, 8 yards

LeGarrette Blount ceiling: 13 rushes, 70 yards, 3 receptions, 15 yards, 1 TD

Theo Riddick floor: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 45 yards

Theo Riddick ceiling: ~20 rushing yards, 12 targets, 11 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

A Lions tight end had three targets last week. Worth a look?

Luke Willson did indeed have three targets last week, a season high from the tight end position. Which means no. But at least he made it into the preview this week!

Matt Prater?

I actually might stay away from Matt Prater this week. He’s not a big enough name to consider holding on your bench, so if you want to keep him on your team you have to start him, but I’m not opposed to dropping him this week. It’s not an ideal situation for Prater, although the combination of the Cowboys offensive woes and defensive capability means the Lions might end up working with some short fields that they can’t convert into TDs. But I wouldn’t want to count on it.

The Detroit Lions D/ST is looking vaguely relevant. Are they streamable?

Nnnnnyes? No? Yes?! Man, I don’t know. No one does. Anyone telling you for sure yes or no is lying to you. The defense was fourth in the league in sacks after Week Three, aren’t giving up that many yards, and the scores are skewed by that miserable Jets game. They look serviceable. But they’re also the Lions defense.

A lot of the sacks are coverage sacks. Scratch that, all of the sacks are coverage sacks. The Lions pressure is so weird. They drop seven and rush four, and then the QB waits several minutes for someone to get open before the rush finally gets to him. It works, and a sack is a sack, but it seems so undependable. That being said, Dak Prescott is both bad and very sackable. The receivers aren’t good at getting open. Actually, they just aren’t good. It could very well turn into a sack-fest. However, if the Cowboys run the ball every play (which they should), it’s kind of hard to get sacks. But that also runs down the clock, which means less plays, yards, and points? So confusing.

If you want to take a shot on the Detroit D/ST, go for it. It could be a great play. I wouldn’t bet my life on it, though.

Are the Lions going to end up in first place in the NFC North after this week?

If the Bears and Packers lose, a Lions win puts them in first place. How? Who knows. Not me. Math, I guess. The Bears losing is likely. The Lions winning is a toss up. But, as I told renowned Michigan radio personality Brendan “L’il B” Riley this week, if the Packers lose to the Bills the week after the Vikings, I will eat my couch.

The response has led to much discussion on what the appropriate dipping sauce for eating a couch would be. Feel free to leave your choices in the comments, as long as you’re supporting me with my selection of BBQ sauce.

-Ian Rye

Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 13-24 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks, a game in which the team was never in control and fantasy points were hard to come by. This week they get a chance for a bounce back as they host the Detroit Lions in Jerry World. Is there anyone we can depend on this week in our fantasy lineups? Marc Salazar answers some questions about this week’s game.

We have seen some alarming trends from Dak Prescott the past several games. What’s your take on the situation?

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has yet to throw for more than 170 yards this season and has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns, two. What’s worse is he doesn’t have a true number one receiver, slot receiver Cole Beasley leads the team in targets. At the moment Dak cannot be trusted to start for fantasy owners, and he probably shouldn’t even be on a roster until things change. This week he draws another tough matchup, Detroit is ranked 1st in total passing offense, giving up just 152 passing yards a game, despite giving surrendering five TDs. With Dak not getting much from his receivers and unable to score a rushing TD, this is another week for you to look elsewhere.

How’s Ezekiel Elliott been playing, and what’s this week’s outlook?

Owners may be disappointed in RB Zeke Elliott’s “slow start” but look closer and you will see he’s the same dominant back we have become used to. Zeke is tied for the league lead with 274 rushing yards and tied for 10th with two rushing touchdowns. Dallas will continue to oil their engine all year and Zeke’s huge games are still to come. As good as the pass defense for Detroit is, they are dead last in rush defense, surrendering 149 yards per game. Dallas will feed Zeke early, often and if the game is close, late as well. Detroit struggles with outside zone run defense, the Cowboys bread and butter. This might be the best matchup Zeke will have for the next several weeks, so get him in your lineups and consider buying him up in DFS.

With bye weeks beginning, are any Dallas receivers worth starting this week?

Absolutely not. A primary receiver has yet to emerge and Detroit has been solid in the secondary. One problem is the receivers are unable to separate and present easy targets for Dak. The bigger problem is Dak’s struggles to throw outside the hash marks. Watching the tape will show you just how inaccurate and unsure Dak is throwing outside the numbers. When things change for this team, we will update you but for now stay away.

Is this week a good week to stream the Dallas defense?

This week I would stay away, Detroit has three dynamic receivers, including a slot WR Golden Tate, who has caught 90+ balls three straight seasons. Kenny Golladay could struggle against this defense, Dallas tends to shut down long, strong receivers and struggles with the smaller, quicker targets. Golladay will likely have a long, unproductive day but Tate will be matched up against Dallas’s weakest CB Anthony Brown and could have a productive day. For IDP owners, continue to start DE Demarcus Lawrence. Early in the year he’s already had 17 QB pressures, third in the league, and he looks like the War Daddy we met last season.

-Marc Salazar