Chargers vs. Browns
Chargers
Will the Browns defensive line be a problem for Philip Rivers?
Myles Garrett, Genard Avery, and Larry Ogunjobi form a very strong defensive line that can create pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Chargers one glaring weakness is their offensive line which will likely mean that Philip Rivers will be under pressure all game. For Rivers this is nothing new. Rivers has been under pressure on 35% of his dropbacks which is 12th most in the league. Despite that, Rivers has passed for a whopping 121.2 Passer Rating when pressured which is by far the best in the league. The next closest QB (Kirk Cousins) sits at 98.0. Rivers has been a wizard under pressure this year. This kind of performance is due for regression but with his current supporting cast Rivers is more than capable of playing under pressure. While most quarterbacks would receive a significant downgrade in this situation, Rivers should remain a solid middle tier QB1 against the Browns.
How will the Browns coverage matchup against the Chargers receiving corps?
Overall, the Browns secondary is solid. Denzel Ward has played incredible on the outside thus far and the safeties Damarious Randall and Jabrill Peppers have held their own on the back end. Even Joe Schobert at linebacker has been stellar in coverage. This gives nearly every position a downgrade this week. The major weakness of this defense is in the slot. Briean Boddy-Calhoun has been horrendous. The good news for the Chargers is that their best receiver often plays in the slot, Keenan Allen. This might be the monster game we have been waiting for from Allen, as the other options (Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler) have tough matchups. Mike Williams has been quiet since his 2-touchdown performance in week 3 and he is merely a WR3 this week. Not to mention Mike Williams spends the least amount of time in the slot on this team. Tyrell Williams has played in the slot on 40% of his snaps this year which should allow him to catch some passes this week. Tyrell’s upside is severely limited by the array of options ahead of him, especially in the red zone. While Mike continues to have more upside, they are both downgrades this week. Travis Benjamin is again unlikely to play with a foot injury. The tight ends, Virgil Green and Antonio Gates have seen little usage in this offense. Despite a touchdown last week, Green is not a good option. Gates always seems to find his way into the end zone so if I was forced to choose one of them this week I would go with Gates.
Can Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler continue to produce together?
Melvin Gordon is dominating the touches. He has drawn 19 more targets, ran 52 more routes and rushed 39 more times. Melvin Gordon also is the primary goal-line option in this offense. Despite Austin Ekeler’s strong performance in 2018, none of this is changing anytime soon. While Ekeler has the talent to produce, his lack of usage keeps him from being a relevant fantasy option. The efficiency at which he’s produced fantasy points is likely to regress further decreasing his value. Some might stretch for upside in his receiving value but Melvin Gordon continues to dominate those snaps as well. Finally, Melvin Gordon is the superior blocker as well which is another factor keeping him on the field. Gordon is an elite fantasy running back, while Ekeler is simply a backup. The Browns stout defense will likely lead to another inefficient day on the ground for these backs but Gordon’s volume and touchdown chances keep his outlook positive.
Boom pick: Keenan Allen
Bust Pick: Mike Williams
Sleeper Pick: None
–Stephen Dudas
-Stephen Dudas
Browns
So here we are in week 6 already. I’m so pumped that we’re deep in football but I feel like it’s passing too quickly! In any event, week 6 sees my Browns facing off against the beatable LA Chargers. It should be a great game with a Vegas over/under of just 45 points with a 1 point favor for the Chargers. The biggest questions are if the Browns’ defense can hold the Chargers back and if the Browns can overcome their mental mistakes on offense. If both of those questions are answered with a yes, then I think the Browns will win. So let’s see what’s up this week!
Will Baker Mayfield continue to be awesome?
Whoa, I didn’t expect such a softball question to open this up, but the short answer is “Yes!” and the long answer is also “Yes!” But seriously, QB Baker Mayfield has been incredibly accurate on throws and has been elusive in the pocket. The biggest problem for Mayfield since he started has been receiver drops. The Browns have 10 drops so far this year, but their drops have been especially egregious. I’m not saying that Baker is perfect, he has had his own struggles, but he’s pretty darn close and it looks like his mental mistakes are reducing each week. By the end of the season, he will likely be in the running for Rookie of the Year and he’s entering a slate of very juicy matchups with relatively weak defenses that should help him overcome his mental mistakes and gain even more confidence and comfort in his role as QB. The Chargers have been up and down against opposing QB’s, but that’s kind of what you would expect when performances by Mahomes and Goff are interspersed by performances from Josh Allen, CJ Beathard, and Derek Carr. Mayfield just threw 342 yards against a very tough Ravens defense so fire him up with confidence.
With Rashard Higgins out and Callaway struggling with drops, what can we expect?
Without a doubt, WR Rashard Higgins being out while dealing with an MCL sprain is a blow to the Browns’ offense. Higgins wasn’t quite performing at an elite level, but he reliably came up with big plays to help keep the offense moving (not to mention scoring the lone touchdown against the Ravens). With Higgins out and WR Antonio Callaway struggling with drops, WR Derrick Willies is likely to see a decent target share this week. Willies stepped in after Higgins went down and saw 5 targets, turning 3 catches into 61 yards. He makes for an intriguing pickup, and maybe not a bad bye-week filler. As for Callaway, out of 25 targets over the last three weeks, Callaway has a paltry 10 catches. He is just a rookie, so hopefully, those drops will reduce as he continues to adjust to the NFL, but he remains just a speculative hold if you have room on your bench. It will be a real shame if receiver drops is what holds the Browns back from the “W” this week. Callaway is also likely to see the most coverage from CB Casey Hayward, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Callaway had a relatively limited performance this week. The Chargers are giving up a ton of fantasy points to receivers, but Callaway is just so hard to trust. WR Jarvis Landry, of course, will see double digit targets as he always does and is a WR2 with upside against this so-so secondary. Desmond King, the Chargers’ slot corner, is good but beatable.
The backfield remains in Hyde’s hands, will Chubb push him for work?
I don’t expect any change in the Cleveland backfield, no. RB Carlos Hyde continued to dominate snaps and carries last week against the Ravens after HC Baby Huey said RB Nick Chubb was going to see more work in light of his explosive plays against Oakland in week 4. I correctly predicted that as just “coachspeak” and Chubb again saw just a handful of touches against BAL. The Chargers haven’t been anything special against the run, so Hyde is probably a mid-to-low end RB1 this week, but Chubb could be a reasonable DFS tournament play since he could break off big plays with limited touches and should thus have limited ownership percentage. But I digress. I suspect Hyde is actually the biggest threat to Mayfield’s production as the Browns are very committed to the run near the goal line so it is very unlikely that Mayfield will throw touchdowns in those situations. RB Duke Johnson, Jr, is a very intriguing prospect for me this week. Higgins is out, Callaway is not trustworthy, and Willies is only starting his second game, so there is a possibility that The Duke will see a mild uptick in targets. It makes me think Duke will be a FLEX option or a half-decent bye-week filler, but I would tag him with a medium-to-high bust probability given his relatively low involvement in the offense altogether. Buyer beware.
David Njoku is trending up, is there anyone else of value here?
Probably not. TE Darren Fells is getting minimal targets each game and did have a TD on a catch-and-run against Oakland but the only TE of interest is TE David Njoku. His targets share remains high and given the TE landscape, Njoku is about as safe as it gets as far as his involvement in the offense and target share. That being said, the Chargers are no slouches against TE’s, so while Njoku should have a pretty safe floor in terms of targets I do think he could be sat for a Cameron Brate or an Austin Hooper type guy. Basically, he’s probably a mid-to-low TE1 with downside, if that makes any sense.
What’s going on defensively?
The Browns have been performing incredibly well against very good QB’s of late, and that is likely to continue this week with two caveats. The first caveat is that their slot coverage is not great and Keenan Allen is one of the league’s best slot WR’s so he could feast. The rest of the Browns’ secondary is pretty darn good. The second is that Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are performing at an elite level and are both involved in the passing game as well as the run game. The Browns are probably more beatable by those two than by Mike or Tyrell Williams. After all, Javorious “Buck” Allen had 6 catches against the Browns but both Gordon and Ekeler are far more dangerous than Allen so 6 catches would yield much more yardage and touchdown potential. Phillip Rivers is a QB prone to throwing INTs on occasion and their pass rush is good, so I would still expect the Browns D/ST to have a pretty high floor for sacks and turnover.
-Sam Turrubiartes
Nice work once again by Mattie Bevins…this will be a fantastic matchup, for fantasy and reality…