Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 6

Bills vs. Texans

Bills

The Buffalo Bills are entering week 6 coming off a 13-12 victory over the Tennessee Titans last week, one in which they racked up a total of 223 yards on offense. This lack of offense isn’t a new trend either, as lead RB LeSean McCoy is averaging only 43 rushing yards per game, starting QB Josh Allen is throwing for 150 yards per game, and the top WR Zay Jones is averaging just 33 yards per game. Each week provides different situations and new opportunities though so let’s take a look at the fantasy relevant information you need to know about regarding the Buffalo Bills this week:

How will Josh Allen handle the Texans pass rush and can put up QB2 type numbers this week?

The Bills top fantasy scorer, QB Josh Allen, is still a low-end option at his position, and really shouldn’t be a starting option going into this week unless you’re in a 2 QB league. Last week I talked about Josh Allen’s struggles when under pressure, and he didn’t show much improvement last week against the Titans. In fact, his success when being pressured fell further down the scale and Allen now has just a 1.6 QB rating when being pressured. That ranks last in the NFL among QBs by far.

This complete lack of success while under pressure doesn’t bode well for Allen’s matchup against a Texans defense this week that includes superstar DE J.J Watt and DE Jadeveon Clowney. The Bills offensive line has been leaky too which doesn’t help the situation. They have given up a league leading 22 sacks so far. Interestingly, Josh Allen has been given the most time to throw in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats with a 3.17 mark so perhaps it’s not all on the offensive line for the sack issues.

If he can find the time to throw, pushing the ball deep and putting pressure on the Texans secondary seems like a potential matchup to exploit for Allen and the Bills. According to Football Outsiders, the Texans pass defense ranks 25th. They also rank 24th best in the NFL against #1 WRs on the opposing team, 27th against #2 WRs on the opposing team, and dead last against TEs on the opposing team. The Texans secondary is clearly exploitable, but I’m not sure that Allen will be able to take advantage given his struggles against pressure and propensity to hold the ball.

To achieve fantasy relevance this week, Allen will have to continue to use his legs effectively. Allen has 3 rushing touchdowns on the year to go with 135 rushing yards, buoying his dreadful passing stats (748 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). Overall, I think this is a matchup to avoid unless desperate.

The Buffalo Bills were very committed to the run game last week. Will that continue and could that mean a big day for RBs LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory?

Volume is what McCoy gave his fantasy owners last week as he received 24 of his 45 total carries this season last week. McCoy did appear much healthier last week, but he is still likely dealing with some lingering impact of the rib injury he suffered in Week 2. Still, if he’s going to get the sort of volume that he got last week, he’s worth a start in pretty much every fantasy league. Buffalo ran the ball on 43 of 63 plays from scrimmage last week, and if that holds true again this week then we can expect McCoy to have another week of 25 touches.

Now the Texans front seven is quite formidable and currently rank 2nd best in the NFL in Rush Defense according to Football Outsiders. This could mean an inefficient day for McCoy running the ball. Now the Bills interestingly have a much better ProFootball Focus grade when running against a defense that has stacked the box to date with an 83.5 rushing grade when facing 7 or more box defenders compared to a 41.7 rushing grade when facing 6 or less box defenders. The Bills also rank 13th best in terms of yards after contact per carry. I don’t really know what to make of this beyond the Bills are clearly reasonably effective with their zone run scheme no matter the number of players in the box.

I anticipate McCoy to be used as a receiver out of the backfield fairly often in this game as a safety valve for Allen, and a way to get the ball out quickly to avoid the pass rush. Overall, I think there’s a good chance for McCoy to return Flex value this week.

Will anyone from the receiving group jump into fantasy relevance this week?
Presumed #1 WR Kelvin Benjamin continues to be a frustrating player both in real life and in fantasy football. He genuinely struggles to create separation with a 1.7 avg yards of separation at target which ranks in a tie for 2nd worst in the NFL. That forces him into contested catch situations far too often and it’s resulted in a very poor catch efficiency of 30.77% which again ranks 2nd worst in the NFL. He’s a sit for me until he proves he can get open and or catch contested balls.

The presumed #2 WR Zay Jones has stepped up into the de facto #1 WR role, and despite a lack of targets, he shows potential. He consistently has shown a strong effort this season with his route running and run blocking and I think he’s now put himself in a position to be the main receiving threat for this team. Now that doesn’t say much when they are averaging about 150 yards passing per game, but still, Jones is the guy to own if you are looking for a cheap flier on the Bills. His season average of 2.4 avg yards of separation at target ranks ahead of names like Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones, LA Chargers WR Keenan Allen, and Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins. Those separation skills have helped Jones to a solid 61.9% catch rate on 21 targets, and with the Bills newfound focus on the short passing game, Jones could see more targets going forward.

TE Charles Clay continues to underwhelm from a fantasy perspective, He did secure his only target last week for 12 yards. It’s clear that Allen doesn’t rely on his TEs the same way that former Bills QB Tyrod Taylor did, and that means that Clay should be downgraded to a bench or waiver wire role at this point.

How about that Bills D?

Buffalo’s defense has very quietly put together a fantastic 14-quarter stretch. After allowing 75 points in the season’s first six quarters, the Bills have only allowed 43 since CB Vontae Davis retired at halftime of the home opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. For the season, the Bills have 12 sacks, three interceptions, and six fumble recoveries.

After totaling -1 points through the season’s first two weeks, the Bills’ defense has scored 16, 3, and 13 over the last three using ESPN standard scoring—giving them the 12th-best total for the season at the position. Would you have known that the Bills D/ST unit has officially been a 12 team starting caliber unit? Buffalo’s defense is available in 92.5% of ESPN leagues, and they could be an intriguing option this week given the uncertainty surrounding Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson’s health (Chest injury).

Boom: LeSean McCoy

Bust: Josh Allen

Sleeper: Bills D/ST

-Adam Garland

Texans

Will Bill O’Brien please stop trying to kill Watson?

Last week, I talked about how QB Deshaun Watson was either running himself into perilous situations or was being called upon to almost sacrifice himself due to an awful play design. In this very winnable game against Buffalo, it’s paramount that Watson gets the protection he needs and, simply, have better plays called. They have too many good players around Watson to not take advantage and be more creative while keeping him healthy. This game is at home, which bodes well for Watson and Co. The hopes of Houston in their quest for a division crown have to be higher based on the fact that the defense has really shown up lately and if this offense can get into a rhythm here and start stacking wins, the division could be up for grabs.

Keke, do ya love me…or my fantasy hopes?

I understand how old this line is by now, but I had to get in on it at some point. In all seriousness, he has shown to be far more effective than what WR Bruce Ellington had been providing, before getting injured. He has fought through hamstring issues to be a good route runner and has great hands. With WR Will Fuller V also battling hamstring soreness, WR Keke Coutee could become a major contributor on a consistent basis – finding space from the slot and churning out yards after the catch, but also being dangerous down the field. I’d expect he still has not warranted a start in fantasy, but like I said above, if this offense can get going, he might be worth a shot.

Can the running game finally get going?

The return of RB Lamar Miller should help them in some capacity, but it doesn’t really matter who they face, it seems. They simply cannot get the push upfield from the offensive line. The second leading rusher is their quarterback and it’s not by much. Between Miller and fellow RB Alfred Blue, they should be getting close to the century mark, at least. It’s a pretty important part of any team’s strategy but the book is out on their ineptitude in the run game, as of right now. That has to change fast. Will it? I doubt it.

Who will have more sacks, Watt or Clowney?

It doesn’t really matter, but the point is that the Bills are running into a defensive front that is on fire right now. No one is slowing DEs JJ Watt or Jadeveon Clowney down and it won’t change Sunday. I believe rookie QB Josh Allen will be a good quarterback in this league someday. As of right now, he is still looking like a rookie. He’s very athletic, which will help in avoiding big time contact. I don’t think he’ll escape this one unscathed, however. The pressure up front will be too much. I predict the defense to get three sacks in this one and a fumble recovery.

Boom: Hopkins

Bust: Miller

Sleeper: Coutee

-Joe Hanretty