Lions vs. Dolphins
Lions
The Lions bye came at a perfect time for the team, who pulled together an excellent divisional win against the Packers the week before some much-needed injury recovery time. They enter Miami to battle the Dolphins who pulled off a last-minute victory against the Bears in Week Six and are having a pretty decent season.
What’s the game script going to be like for Stafford?
Matthew Stafford, pre-bye week, had a major downturn in both passing attempts and fantasy reliability. While it’s safe to say he is unlikely to throw the only 26 pass attempts he threw in Week Five against the Packers (something that has only happened a few times in his entire career), it seems equally unlikely that he’ll be throwing the ball the 50+ times he did in Week One or Week Two.
The success of the running game has been a pretty large part in Stafford’s lack of pass attempts, but it’s hard to attribute it to that when two of the last three games have been scripted as quick, large leads. The Dolphins, led this week by Brock Osweiler, has a decent chance of coughing up a lot of points quickly. However, I would continue to expect those points to go to Stafford rather than the run game. All three of the Lions’ rushing touchdowns came in their most recent two games. It’s not a sure thing, as the Dolphins have excelled at limiting passing TDs, but Stafford’s consistent two TDs are pretty likely.
The Dolphins limit passing TDs. What does that mean for the Lions receiving corps?
Not much. For what it’s worth, the Dolphins haven’t played many top-notch wide receivers corps, nor very many good quarterbacks. Holding A.J. Green and Cincinnati down is the most impressive thing they’ve done as a pass defense all season.
We did see Marvin Jones close to his floor against Green Bay, despite catching a TD, and that’s a little scary despite the minimally concerning defensive match-up. That being said, I’m not particularly worried. The only thing this offense has shown with any consistency is that they’re willing to throw the deep ball to Marvin whenever applicable, and at least once a game. I don’t like his transition to boom/bust candidate, but he’s a lot more likely to end up with the boom than most of those types of receivers, which is nice.
Meanwhile, Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay are essentially must-starts. With Theo Riddick injured, Tate has no competition for any short ball or interesting play call involving a behind-the-line type of pass. You can bet he’ll get work, although expecting a touchdown might be asking a bit much. He is still the most likely player to lead the team in targets, however, and that’s big in a Lions offense that really hasn’t spread the ball much outside of its three primary receivers. Golladay is just a must-start in general. He comes down with every ball and Stafford is targeting him on a higher percentage of passes each week. Against Green Bay, he lowered his catch percentage drastically, but don’t be fooled by the stat sheet. Most of those were not on catchable plays.
Is this the week where we start Kerryon?
Honestly, I would say yes. He has been full practice all week and has no injury designation. With Riddick out, Kerryon Johnson is the clear player for third downs. He has proven to be a great check-down receiver, and the Lions are legitimately depending on him for the first time in his career. He’s running at well over 5.5 yards per carry this season, and despite Miami’s solid rushing defense metrics they have really only played one legitimate run threat in Joe Mixon and he was coming off of injury.
Another major note of importance is the health of T.J. Lang. If he is able to compete and play at full health this game, that is huge for the running game. Kerryon has shown this season that he only really needs to smallest of interior gaps to break away from consistent 15-20 yard carries. Lang is a huge part of that. If he’s active before the game, I would be much more confident in starting Kerryon.
Lions D/ST is looking like a good stream option this week.
That wasn’t a question. I’ll answer it anyway: yes. The Dolphins do not have a receiver I would trust to break away from coverage in the middle of the field or underneath, nor do they have a great tight end, which accounts for the majority of issues that the Lions have faced. Osweiler mostly tossed the ball to receivers who made the plays last week. He isn’t an amazing quarterback, and the Lions defensive scheme excels at taking away big plays. The Dolphins don’t give up a lot of sacks, which is concerning from a D/ST standpoint, but it could be a big week on the turnover side.
Matt Prater.
Matt Greater.
Final Thoughts?
If the Dolphins continue to keep the ball out of Kenyan Drake’s hands, this game could be over very quickly. However, as they’ve lived off of the turnover, the Lions might be in for some rough times in the early parts of this game. Stafford has done a remarkable job keeping the ball out of the opponent’s hands since Week One, so the hope is that he continues. From an opposing standpoint, starting Frank Gore or Drake against this Lions defense is a pretty solid winning formula.
-Ian Rye
Dolphins
So, the Dolphins are 4-2 and now get to face the Lions after upsetting the Lions divisional rival, the Bears. In an unprecedented effort, Albert Wilson juked the entire Bears defense for 155 yards and two touchdowns to get the Dolphins into a position to win. That’s good, because the Dolphins will head into this game once again without starting QB Ryan Tannehill.
Brock Lobster
One item that was all over Twitter on Sunday night was Brock Osweiler’s success against the Bears when that was his first start for a team (3-0). It seems as though Brock Lobster can beat the Bears, but not really anyone else. Osweiler was not particularly effective last week, missing most of his throws longer than ten yards, so expect a very horizontal attack from the Dolphins as a result. The Dolphins team is built to play horizontal (minus having a good line), so Osweiler could see success again on Sunday.
Free Kenyan Drake
We live in a world where Frank Gore keeps carrying the rock over more talented younger backs who don’t have the support of a good offensive line. Gore has done remarkably well in that role over the last couple of weeks, even putting up 101 yards on 15 carries against the vaunted Bears defense. The Lions aren’t the Bears (oh my), so if Gore continues to see 15 carries, he’s startable. Kenyan Drake is the enigma. He’s still on the field for nearly two thirds of the Dolphins snaps, so the Dolphins are trusting him in the offense as a whole. The problem is that they just aren’t giving him enough carries to build any type of rhythm. All of that being said, Kenyan Drake is best when running to the outside of the line and as a receiver, both places that the Lions struggle. There is hesitancy in saying to start Drake, but this week could be the one that starts to return some of that draft capital.
Go-Go-Gadget Receivers
So, the thing about the Lions defense is that the only thing they do well is tackle. Aside from that, their defense is middling at all of the other tasks of pass defense, including pass rush and coverage. Brock Osweiler isn’t going to wow anyone down the field (we have a lot of proof of that by now), so expecting Kenny Stills or DeVante Parker to have anything more than a token contribution to the game is wish casting. Where the Dolphins will eat Sunday is getting the ball into the hands of Albert Wilson or Jakeem Grant. Both receivers have excelled at catching the ball in space and juking defenders for long games. Wilson is the only “safe” play of the two, since he is on the field for more than 60% of the team snaps on average, and should be considered a deep-Flex. Grant makes up for his lack of snaps with his special teams contributions, but those are too difficult to predict. Danny Amendola is always out on the field and should be considered the team security blanket, but usually in the 4-40 type of way. That won’t change against the Lions.
Stafford vs. a Ball Hawking Defense
In Week 1, Matt Stafford threw five interceptions (as seen from the starting roster of five of my own teams). Since then, Stafford only has one pick on the season, but that could change this week. Miami has 11 interceptions on the year, being truly adept at playing the ball-hawk style of defense that is maddening for fantasy, but could be great at the end of any particular week. Where the Lions have struggled to run the ball (free Kerryon Johnson), the Dolphins have help opposing run offenses to good-not-great days. The ball will end up in Stafford’s hand to move the chains, which bodes well for the Dolphins as a fantasy defense. Consider Miami a good defensive streamer this week, especially if DE Cameron Wake and CB Bobby McCain are able to play (both were full participants in practice on Friday).
BOOM: Kenyan Drake
BUST: DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills
SLEEPER: Brock Osweiler
-David Fenko
good calls on Edelman and Gronk, Mr. Bevins….I see Brady getting it out quick to Edelman, and of course White, to avoid that Bears rush. Why did we let go of Hicks, dammit? lol
Can you guys add the “Game Previews” (and maybe Waiver Wire) as a section under the main navigation bar under articles? I love to read these but sometimes it’s hard to find. Thanks!!