Patriots vs. Bills
Patriots
Well, I guess you could say we’ve been waiting all day for that Sunday night. Ugh. Now it’s stuck in my head. Again. We’re gonna have a mighty chill on the field that evening, as the Patriots attempt to roll in and fire off their fifth straight win in Buffalo. More than likely a high scoring affair for the Patriots as the Bills are unfortunately in need of large repairs, and quickly. This should be a fantasy whose who of “must starts” if you want to ask about Patriots, as long as they can get on the field. In post of writing my article for last week, Rob Gronkowski stayed back from the trip to Chicago, leaving the game more open of target dispersal to other players. If Gronkowski makes it out to Buffalo, right nearby, a lot of friends and family from his hometown will be looking out for the Gronk spike. Let’s dive on in ,and see what we may get from this frozen night matchup.
Brady brings matured body back to Buffalo
These divisional games do wonders sometimes for both sides, as Tom Brady will bring his team in to Buffalo on a mission to take out a fifth straight opponent, and one that could be considered as much as any other team as one “on the skids.” Nathan Peterman has surrendered interception upon interception, Josh Allen is week to week as the team attempts to keep healthy one of their lone high end drafted weapons, and so on Sunday night, we shall see the mighty matchup of Tom Brady versus…Derek Anderson? Yep, we get to see Derek Anderson play against the Patriots. With the wounded Bills in worse shape than a lot of their fans after they’ve found their way seemingly through a parking lot table, it would be of little shock to expect Brady to do less than a 350 yard output in this one. The fact of the matter however, is that we should temper our expectations a little due not to the divisional prowess of the AFC East teams against the Patriots, as yearly we go in expecting blow outs against lower end teams, and end up with a game won by a field goal or less. The Bills, per footballoutsiders.com, actually have the fourth best pass defense in DVOA, and actually have played pretty well in the air, so my personal expectations would be that Brady takes it to the air early, and often, to make up for the loss of Michel for the week, and with Gronkowski having a homecoming of sorts, expect a big game from Gronkowski on the stat sheet. If we’re lucky, maybe Brady we’ll have a nice running scamper. After a long week, a Sunday night game can be tough for me to watch after a long day, so I’ll be popping an ice cold Pepsi to keep me up during this one!
Patriots backfield currently needs duct tape for short term repairs
“I’m still not quite sure how good you are.” James Bond had it right with this line in Die Another Day, but really, I think he was discussing the future of and the past of the Patriots backfield. We’ve had a beginning of season hope that Sony Michel would be the anointed leader of the backfield when he was drafted early on in the draft. With the knee injury scare, the fanbase therein talked themselves in to a Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill combination to cobble it together until Michel got the hang of the team playbook and his knees were in tip top shape. As of week 3, we got to watch as Michel started to break out and we truly saw what the Patriots saw out of him. And now, well, after last week when Michel had his leg rolled over by a very mean Chicago Bears defender, now, we have KENJON BARNER. And James White, who while a very valuable back, is known mostly for his great hands, and ability to run a quick and precise route tree. Barner will more than likely take on the snaps Michel has left, and while Michel is closer to coming back than he is not, the running game will leave much to be desired in a semi-savory matchup, as the Bills are right in the middle of the pack for rushing defense. If we had much to expect, I could see Barner as being a poor man’s Michel, possibly getting eighty yards or so on thirty carries, and a touchdown or two, if we’re lucky. All of us in New England will be waiting with baited breath for the return of the Sony “playstation”. There have been no signings of note for the running game, so expect the backfield share to likely be a seventy/thirty split for Barner/White.
Gronkowski headlines a passing game transformation for this week in Buffalo
There’s a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game going in to week 8 for the New England Patriots. Just a month ago, there was little of note to speak about, and just a month later, removed from that statement, there is almost an ignorance of riches for them. Phillip Dorsett is no longer a focal point, as the key contributors in the passing game are now headlined by James White, Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski. One key touchpoint to note. Josh Gordon arrived for his first snaps in New England for the Dolphins game in week 4. Since then, he has seen his snap count rise from 22 to 26 to 81 to now 96 percent over the past four weeks. What many players have taken almost a year, if not longer to meld in with the Patriots tricky offensive schemes, Gordon is now on the field on almost every play the Patriots offense runs. Gordon will still be a gameplan weapon, where they need someone to go out deep, or for a long throw and catch play, but his role is being expanded to being the number one receiver that also isn’t a running back (White) or tight end (Gronkowski) and that can have value here. Edelman will continue to always be the elusive, available check down wide receiver who will make his hay on sheer volume of targets, but Gordon could become the player who compiles large piles of yardage, and I believe that with the ground game ailing, pick your poison for the Bills here. Gronkowski, White, and Gordon could all have huge games, and Edelman will also likely find himself somewhere between 10 to 15 targets. Start your Patriots offensive players, folks. Winter is coming.
-Matt Bevins
Bills
The Buffalo Bills are entering week 8 coming off a 37-5 loss that came at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts last week. The struggle to put up points week to week continues and at this point, there is no way that I can recommend that you put a Buffalo player in your fantasy football lineup on Monday night against the New England Patriots. This Bills squad is a team in which the lead RB LeSean McCoy is averaging just 40.6 rushing yards per game, starting QBs are averaging 156 yards passing per game, and the top WR Zay Jones is averaging just 32.2 yards per game. This is simply not a talented team and that means little fantasy relevance, especially this week against the Patriots who the Bills have only managed to defeat just three times since 2001. Each week provides different situations and new opportunities though so let’s take a look at the fantasy relevant information you need to know about regarding the Buffalo Bills this week:
Veteran QB Derek Anderson is back in as the starting QB this week, how will the Bills utilize his talents and what sort of performance can we expect?
Veteran QB Derek Anderson is back in under center in Buffalo as 1st round rookie QB Josh Allen continues to recover from an elbow injury. Anderson finished 20 of 31 for 175 yards last week against the Indianapolis Colts, and that came with 0 TDs against 3 INTs. He showed poise in the pocket through much of the game, getting the ball out quickly into the hands of his playmakers which is all that was really asked of him. I expect a similar sort of short/quick passing game plan this week against a New England Patriots team that is the clear division favorite in the AFC East. New England ranks 17th in terms of pass defense rank according to Football outsiders and have 9 sacks on the season which ranks 2nd worst in the league. The lack of pass rush may help Anderson find the time to get the ball out fairly consistently which could mean garbage time yards and scoring. Still, that is a tough thing to trust and Anderson should be on benches or on the waiver wire in all leagues unless desperate.
RB LeSean McCoy is listed as questionable at the moment, what can we expect his status to be come Monday and what will the RB touches look like for the group?
RB LeSean McCoy has made enough progress through the concussion protocol to practice, but not enough to take contact as he practiced in a non-contact jersey on Friday. This is going to be a game time decision on whether he’s able to play Monday, and I think it’s best to look at alternative options even if McCoy is able to play. Given the nature of his injury, I think it’s fair for the Bills to play things conservative with him, spreading his touches among the group, and likely using other options in short-yardage situations like the goal line where physical running is more common which means limited TD potential.
That could be a boon to backup RB Chris Ivory who is also recovering from an injury, a hamstring injury suffered last week, but looks on track to play Monday. The Bills have five double-digit scoring outputs from running backs this season, and Ivory owns three of them. He is Buffalo’s leader in rushing attempts with 67. He has been the man on short-yardage plays, and he is also a capable receiver in a game where the Bills will certainly look to utilize the backs in the quick passing game. He’s a safer bet this week if you’re investing in the Buffalo running game imo based on the injury situations.
3rd RB Marcus Murphy was explosive in limited action last week picking up 53 yards on just 4 carries including one 30 yard run in the 3rd quarter. He also caught 5 balls on 6 targets for 17 yards which highlights the trust that Murphy was able to quickly gain with Anderson under center. He’s a viable waiver wire pickup if desperate as he is the only truly healthy player in the backfield, but without a secure access to touches, he’s a low floor option at best.
Kelvin Benjamin showed some signs of life last week, can he or anyone else in the receiving group step up to propel the offense?
As suggested in the game preview I wrote last week, WR Kelvin Benjamin was a favorite target of QB Derek Anderson from their Carolina Panthers days and that carried into the game last week where Benjamin quietly put together his best game of the year. Benjamin finished with 4 receptions on 5 targets for 71 yards (17.8 YPC avg). He continues to struggle to get open as he posted just a 1.6 avg yards of separation at target mark, but he looked more motivated to win his contested catch situations and came down with almost all of them. He came down with a few 3rd down and long catches, and just looked like he cared for once this season and that’s encouraging if you’re a fantasy owner of his. Expect him to continue being a go-to target this week as Anderson is back under center. Interestingly, the Patriots rank 27th best in terms of defending the opposing team’s #1 WR which could mean fantasy relevance for someone like WR Kelvin Benjamin. It’s hard to trust anyone in this poor Bills offense, but if there’s a week to trust Benjamin, this might be it.
WR Zay Jones continued to look solid in the short/quick passing game last week catching 3 of 5 targets, but unfortunately his catches only went for a total of 27 yards. He continues to show solid separation skills with a 2.4 avg yards of separation at target mark for the season, and it has led to reasonable efficiency catching the ball with a season average of 55.88%. The Patriots rank in the top 10 in terms of defending team’s #2 WR and that makes this matchup a tough one for Jones. I believe in his skill set though, and if he had more competent QB play throughout the year, he would be more fantasy relevant. For now, he should be considered a bench or waiver wire option with upside.
TE Charles Clay has been used sparingly in the short/quick passing game in recent weeks, catching 3 passes on 4 targets for just 14 yards last week. The Bills are not utilizing his talents downfield, and the conservative nature of his routes have led to a completely mediocre and fantasy irrelevant line for most of the year. It’s become clear that without former Bills QB Tyrod Taylor under center, that Clay’s role in the offense is less valued and he should be considered a low-end bench option or more likely left on the waiver wire.
How about that Bills D/ST unit?
Despite being gashed by the Indianapolis Colts last week, including 219 yards on the ground to the combo of RBs Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins, the Bills defense remains a strong unit on both sides of the ball according to Football Outsiders. The Bills matchup well with the 4th best pass defense in the NFL who will do their best to limit QB Tom Brady and the gang. Brady should find success still, he has dominated the Bills throughout his career, and I expect him to utilize a short/quick passing game that highlights RB James White out of the backfield. White is a much better receiver out of the backfield than Mack who dominated the Bills last week, and White is currently New England’s leader in targets (61), receptions (45), and receiving touchdowns (6). He is also second on the team with 380 receiving yards. Indianapolis abused the middle of Buffalo’s defense last week, and New England’s personnel is superior to Indy’s. I think this is a sit for the Bills D/ST unit this week against a vastly superior team.
Boom: Kelvin Benjamin
Bust: LeSean McCoy
Sleeper: Chris Ivory
-Adam Garland