Browns vs. Steelers
Browns
So here we are in week 8, halfway through the fantasy season. I hope it’s going well for all of you. Week 8’s matchup for the Browns is a tough one. They faced the Steelers in week 1 and tied them, but that game had Tyrod Taylor under center and the remains of a hurricane affecting the game. I’m not sure there’s much we can take from that first encounter, but I’m excited for my boys as they face off with a division rival again. If they can pull off the upset, this will be big. So let’s get started looking at what may happen.
Baker Mayfield made the Bucs’ defense look good- should we expect more of the same from him this week?
While I am a big believer in QB Baker Mayfield, I’m not super hopeful about this week. Mayfield’s biggest problem at the moment seems to be that he holds on to the ball way too long and the Steelers have a fearsome pass blitz, and they will probably dial it up against the Browns. With the O-line looking like hot garbage most weeks now, I think the Steelers have a great opportunity for sacks. That being said, their secondary is still weak and they are still without LB Ryan Shazier, so if the Browns can start sending Mayfield out on designed runs or giving him even a little bit of pocket space, he will do great. As it is, I think this week he will either be a middling QB2, or a mid-range QB1. He has a medium-high bust potential. Still, I’m rolling him out over guys like Flacco, and of course, Case Keenum and the like. I’m also starting him over Sam Darnold who doesn’t have much going receiver-wise, and there are just plenty of QB’s that maybe don’t have as much upside. If you want to roll him out, good luck- you’ll need it!
If Baker struggles to stay upright all game, will the receivers struggle as well?
Well, for all the troubles Mayfield is likely to suffer this coming weak, the Steelers secondary is exploitable. WR Jarvis Landry had a pretty good bounce-back week against the Bucs, and I think that will continue this week. I like Landry as a high WR2 in PPR, a mid WR2 in standard. WR Antonio Callaway rightly had his target volume reduced, catching just one of 2 targets last week, so he will likely see a few targets again, but who knows if he will catch him regardless of who is defending him. I thought WR Damion Ratley, who is filling in for injured WR Rashard Higgins, would be a sneaky start. He saw 8 targets for 6 catches and 82 yards against the Chargers in week 6, but then completely disappeared against the Bucs. I’m really not sure if we can expect anything from him this week, but it would be nice if either he or Callaway could help the offense in some way. Higgins could be a decent stash if you have the bench space, but there are so many receivers with potential he is probably not worth the roster spot outside of very deep leagues.
Nick Chubb had a great first start against a strong run D, will the Steelers hold him down? Will Todd Haley stop being terrible and get Duke more involved?
I have to think that something will break. The game script for RB Nick Chubb is not projected to be great, but the Browns defense does show up several times every game, and Roethlisberger is better at home but still can throw an interception or two, so while I think the game will start fairly run-heavy, that may not last more than a couple drives. Outside of that, Chubb will get goal-line carries so he has a fair chance for a touchdown if the Browns get downed near the goal line, and he does have big-play ability if he can get a nice hole. I think of Chubb this week as a low-end RB2 with strong upside. I also think that with Callaway underperforming and Ratley a non-factor, the Browns basically have to use RB Duke Johnson, Jr. Right? Right?? I mean, Duke makes big plays every game and the Browns are short of playmakers. Haley has been pretty disastrous as a play-caller so far, but Hue is worse so unless everyone gets canned, it’s going to be hard to depend on Duke even though he is worthy of being depended on. I would absolutely love to see Duke get 8 targets and maybe 10 carries but that is unlikely. He’s a low-end Flex play for me, with high bust potential.
Will Njoku continue to play at a high level?
Absolutely. TE David Njoku is facing a defense that has been terrible defending TE’s, has a decent target share, and is a red zone threat. He has the only short pass TD the Browns have thrown all season, and he’s just a great athlete. Against a weak Steelers defense, He and Jarvis are the only Browns players that I truly want to have in my lineup. This week Njoku has high TE1 probability.
The defense showed up against the Bucs, will they do as well against PIT?
This question is hard to answer. They started the year off hot with 5 turnovers against this very Steelers team. But that game had winds and rain and everyone on offense on both sides looked pretty bad. That being said, the defense has continued to make big plays most weeks. You could do worse than the Browns defense, but Big Ben at home typically does very well and his pass-catchers are elite, as is James Conner out of the backfield. Fire them up with doubt, and good luck this week!
-Sam Turrubiartes
Steelers
How similar will this game be to the week one tie between these two teams?
A lot has changed since the Browns and Steelers played to a week one 21-21 tie. The Browns have moved on from Tyrod Taylor and are now starting Baker Mayfield. Carlos Hyde has been traded, making way for Nick Chubb at running back. The week one matchup was played in Cleveland in rainy and windy conditions, while this week will be played in Pittsburgh in much better weather. This matchup should be much more conducive to fantasy scoring than week one was.
Who will be Roethlisberger’s preferred targets against the Browns?
Ben Roethlisberger has really consolidated his targets so far this year, making fantasy projections fairly easy for the Steelers passing game this year. Antonio Brown leads the way with 72 targets, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster with 63. The two have gone back and forth as the target leader from week to week, with Brown scoring more touchdowns while Smith-Schuster has been the more explosive and efficient option. Smith-Schuster has actually seen more red zone usage, which might give him a slight leg up on Brown going forward. In this week’s matchup, expect Brown to see a lot of Denzel Ward, which may leave Smith-Schuster as the preferred option. Regardless, this is a scenario which should produce two high-end fantasy performances.
The secondary options are led by running back James Conner with 35 targets on the year, followed by tight ends Vance McDonald and Jesse James with 25 and 21 targets respectively. McDonald has separated himself from James in recent weeks, and while the two still eat into each others value at times, McDonald has established himself as a starting fantasy tight end with 60+ yards in three of five games. While the Browns have been able to limit tight end production this year, some of that may be attributed to their schedule. James was able to reach 60 yards week one against the Browns before McDonald returned from injury, so McDonald’s owners shouldn’t worry about the matchup and should start him with confidence. The rest of the Steelers passing game options are not on the fantasy radar.
Can James Conner continue his recent dominant performances?
All signs point to James Conner building on his impressive 2018 season in week eight, as the Steelers are eight-point favorites at home against a Browns team that he posted 192 total yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 touches in week one. If the Steelers jump out to a lead, expect them to continue to feed Conner as the Browns have been susceptible to big running back performances this year. Conner is seeing elite level usage as he is essentially the Steelers only running back option, a rare thing in today’s NFL. He’s a strong play in all formats.
Should I stream the Steelers defense or kicker this week?
The Steelers D has been a very underrated option so far this season and makes for an excellent streaming option against the Browns. Baker Mayfield has been sacked 5 times in each of the past 3 games, and the Steelers were able to sack Tyrod Taylor 7 times in week one. The Steelers are likely to be playing with a lead, which is what you want when streaming a defense.
Chris Boswell has righted the ship after a shaky start to the season and is a decent streaming option at kicker this week. Pittsburgh is a tough place to kick, however, putting him a step down from the elite kicking options.
Predictions:
Boom: James Conner
Bust: N/A
Sleeper: Vance McDonald
-Erik Smith