Packers vs. Patriots
Packers
Will Aaron Rodgers eclipse 300 yards passing?
In only two games of seven this season, Aaron Rodgers has passed for 300 yards or more. While New England is an even better match-up to bounce back against after a disappointing Week Eight against the Rams than it appears. New England’s only two great weeks that buoy its defensive value were against Miami and Buffalo, two of the league’s weaker offenses. Removing those two performances, New England has one of the league’s worst passing defenses. Rodgers is a strong play in Week Nine.
Then there were Two
Ty Montgomery was traded at the deadline after a game-losing fumble in Week Eight, leaving only Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to carry the load. Jones already had 62% of the snaps in Week NIne and is likely to take over the bulk of Montgomery’s touches. Jones is a great FLEX play as he should see season-high touches in Week Nine. Green Bay has not relied much on the run this season, but against New England the team should try and get a running game started early.
Then there were Four
Whether it was to ease Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back in after an extended time out with injuries, Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw the most snaps of any receiver behind only Davante Adams. In what was already a crowded receiving core, only Adams remains a safe play in Week Nine. Rodgers will spread the ball around, but if it is to four or five receivers – targets will be limited. Weeks NIne and Ten should give clarity to how Green Bay intends on using its receiving core moving forward.
Low Targeted Tight End
Jimmy Graham brought in his only target in Week Eight. New England has stout coverage against tight ends, letting up 42% of opposing tight end fantasy points in one week against Indianapolis. Graham makes five primary passing targets, lowering his target share. Graham is still a good shot for several red zone looks and in Green Bay’s high-volume offense means Graham should never be counted out.
Boom: Aaron Rodgers
Bust: Jimmy Graham
Sleeper: Aaron Jones
-Brennen Gorman
Patriots
Hey, a Sunday night football game that should live up to our anticipations! The two arguably best QBs in the league for the past five years will face off against each other in Gillette Sunday, as the 6-2 Patriots, hot off of five straight wins, will gameplan up against a 3-3 Packers team that’s in flux from a flurry of trades and injuries, as they’ve lost change of pace/swing back Ty Montgomery, and one of their best defensive players and swarming cornerback, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. It should be a high scoring affair, something many of us would expect the Over/Under line of 57 to be well over, even with the injuries both teams have recently experienced. Who should you run out there on Sunday night, and who can you trust in game-time decisions with it being an 8:20 pm affair? Let’s dive in, and find out!
Brady and his brigade attempt to bring a six-week win streak to Tennessee
Tom Brady, in his five-game winning streak, has averaged 69.1 completion percentage, an actual percentage that is five points above his career average, as his “speed” ( I use that very, very generously) and deep ball opportunity has been transitioned to accuracy and precision targeting on his options, employing a variety of players like James White, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski who can make plays and break tackles close to the line and have for the most part soft hands. He’ll seek to capitalize off a defense that’s ranked 20th overall from footballoutsiders.com, and showcases a few bright spots on defense, including Clay Matthews and Tramon Williams, and young upstart Blake Martinez. Brady could look to capitalize off the lack of defensive depth and fresh faces, but with the potential rush of Martinez and Matthews, I would expect that there is going to be a large portion of short passes, and run game to throw off the Packers, while we all wait to hopefully see if Sony Michel suits up, just a week removed from a horrific looking injury. Without Michel at one hundred percent/there at all last week, Brady had his highest passing total last week, and I would expect somewhere between 40 and 45 passes made. Depending on passing touchdowns, you should have a floor of five to eight on the QB ranking this week, especially with six teams on bye. Start him with confidence, as per usual.
Will Sony have a week 9 release date?
All the signs on this path, this winding path for running backs are leaning towards “YES” in regards to Sony Michel making his anticipated return to the injury-depleted New England backfield on Sunday night. In week 8, we saw Cordarelle Patterson tote the rock 10 times, with James White(8 carries) and Kenjon Barner(2, this longshot pick backfired) distant rock runners behind him. While Michel was drafted to eventually inherit the role that Dion Lewis had bequeathed prior to him, consequences of injury had him thrown into the role lightly in week 2, and slowly working his way up from there. Michel will be the heir supreme for a long time to come in New England, if draft pedigree and signs show us, so if Michel is not in tip-top shape, the Patriots will not risk him being overrun. Expect some odd mish-mash of Michel, White, and Patterson to throw off the Packers in this one. Green Bay is averaging just shy of 5 yards per carry so far this season, and should be a ripe matchup for the Patriots to pick on, so I’m banking on if Michel plays, he goes just shy of 15 carries, with Patterson toeing somewhere between 8 and 11 carries, some being trick plays, and White is out there on many snaps, but mostly to block and pass catch. Bank on Michel for a short-yardage touchdown, Patterson to potentially get the most snaps, and White to do his usual thing, unleashing a ten catch assault on the Packers defense.
Brady continues to roll while finding his targets
The defense for Green Bay struggles more on the rushing side of the ball than in the air, so I’m tempering my expectations slightly for Brady, while I think he could ease into a potential top 3 qb line purely by sheer volume alone. Brady’s options on the menu seem to continue to grow, as in just a short spurt with the Patriots, Josh Gordon has factored in to 61 percent of snaps the Patriots have played. In that time, he has caught 17 passes, only one time hitting one hundred yards, but it seems less due to his talent, and more due to the litany of options Brady has at his disposal. Now fresh off suspension, there’s a calling list of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Hogan as the primary targets that aren’t rushers, with James White rounding out his favorite passing targets. Gordon has been limited with a hamstring injury during the week, and has been off and on the injury report since arriving in New England, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he played to see him used mostly as a decoy this week, but the upside of a deep pass or two is a possibility, with Clinton-Dix gone and Brady looking for any way of outscoring opponents in the air as possible. Our safest bets for this game in terms of receiving is to go with the weekly consistency all stars, as you should start your Edelman and White stocks. White has averaged just under 7 receptions per game through eight weeks, and seems to be the clear top tier of running backs in terms of catching duties, and Edelman has averaged just above 6 receptions per game. These two will continue to thrive in this offense, especially without a healthy Michel or Gordon, and Gronkowski has a potential chance of breaking out, if Matthews and Martinez are focused more on the pass rush than they are on protecting the tight end route trees.
Boom: James White
Bust: Rob Gronkowski
Sleeper: Cordarelle Patterson
-Matt Bevins