Chiefs vs. Browns
Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-and-1, their only loss being a final minute defeat to the defending AFC Champion New England Patriots. This week they visit the Cleveland Browns, a team that fired their head coach and offensive coordinator earlier this week. All signs point to a thrashing of last place Browns but stranger things have happened when struggling teams make changes at the top. What should we expect from the explosive KC offense this week?
Who is the league MVP midway through the season?
Midway through the season and second-year QB Patrick Mahomes should be considered the front-runner for NFL Most Valuable Player. Mahomes currently leads the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns and if you think that is an outlier, some sort of fluke, then you haven’t been paying attention. Mahomes is currently the top-ranked quarterback by Pro Football Focus grading, DVOA QB value ratings, and ESPN Total QBR. It seems everyone who watches the kid play comes to the same conclusion, Mahomes is an absolute stud.
The Browns, despite being just the 28th ranked defense overall, including more than 275 yards passing per game, they have been stingy to fantasy QBs. Cleveland allows just 15 fantasy points to opposing QBs and has relied on the big play to compete. They lead the league with 12 interceptions and a league-high 33 sacks. Mahomes will be under pressure all day and has shown stretches of ill-advised throws and turnovers. This week should be no different, with Mahomes facing pressure and sure to end up with a turnover or two. Regardless Mahomes will light up the Brown defense and is an easy start.
What should be expected from the KC run game this weekend?
As tough as Cleveland has been on opposing QBs, running backs have absolutely had a field lit them up, already allowing 10 rushing touchdowns and nearly 30 points a game to the RB position. KC RB Kareem Hunt is on a roll as of late, six straight weeks of 15 fantasy points or more. What’s more, has been heavily involved in the passing game recently and Cleveland just doesn’t have the horses to keep up with Hunt. He’s an RB1 this week, should be relied on heavily on the road and is an excellent start.
The Browns have a great pass rush but can they cover these KC weapons?
Leading wide receiver Tyreek Hill has a quiet but game by his standards in Week 8 but looks to be over his groin injury and is a full go. This week will be tough to handicap, as Hill draws rookie CB Denzel Ward who is having a fantastic rookie season. Ward won’t back down from anyone and is certain to be looking forward to going head to head with the speediest receiver in the league. I think Ward wins this battle as Hill has another slow day but he is still a player that you need to start regardless. The ultimate boom or bust weapon, Hill may just spring for a long TD.
With Hill being shadowed by a tough corner, WR Sammy Watkins should be in line for another big day. Last week Watkins has his first two touchdown, 100-yard receiving day in more than a calendar year. Watkins is the clear second receiver on the team, even the third option in the passing game, but he is on a pace to finish with 100 targets on the year, WR3 territory. In fact, in the last 4 weeks, Watkins has been targeted 8 or more times which is WR1 territory. With so much attention on Hill and other options, Watkins is a great start as a fantasy WR3 or FLEX and this week I see him scoring a touchdown.
At the tight end position, All-Pro TE Travis Kelce has been everything fantasy owners could have hoped for. This week Kelce may be in for a tough matchup, the Browns have three solid safeties who have performed above average against the tight end position and have allowed just three passing touchdowns. The tandem of Damarious Randall and Jabrill Peppers will have their hands full but if KC can scheme some intermediate looks for Kelce he could have some catch and run opportunities. Just don’t expect a red zone TD this week from the standout TE.
With so many teams on bye this week, fantasy owners may be scanning the wire for a longshot player to get into the lineup and this week WR Chris Conley is that player. You can be certain HC Andy Reid has identified a weakness in the Browns defense at slot corner that he could exploit. A Conley touchdown would not surprise me one bit.
Boom: Kareem Hunt
Bust: Travis Kelce
Sleeper: Sammy Watkins
-Marc Salazar
Browns
So week 8 was such a disaster that not one, but two coaches were fired. No one is really surprised, though, as Hue Jackson was terrible. Like the 2nd worst coach in all of NFL history terrible. Kind of ironic that in this disaster of a season, it was his best with the team. And I don’t know what was going on with Todd Haley, I really expected a lot more from him calling the shots, but that clearly wasn’t the case. There’s a lot of dysfunction between those two, so hopefully, with that cancer removed, the team can thrive. Or continue to tank, I’m really just not sure. Given that literally no one knows what to expect, I’m faced with a bit of choice in how to write this preview. Rather than go with my first instinct, however, which is to simply put up pictures of Hue Jackson looking confused after each question, I’m going to respond in a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. So you’ll have two guesses, and in reality, the outcome will likely be somewhere in between.
Baker’s obviously still the starting quarterback- is there any hope for Mayfield to have a good week?
Best Case: Absolutely. QB Baker Mayfield is clearly a champion in the making, and now that the dead weight is cleared out, and interim HC Gregg Williams is in charge, things are going to change. Williams has taken an attitude where he has zero f#^&$ to give besides each person on the roster playing their position well. He’s going to whip these boys into shape, and the Browns have a fair shot at overcoming their struggles to pull off the upset. The offensive line will feel the increase in energy and play their hearts out, just like the entire team did when Mayfield came in against the Jets, allowing Mayfield time to find his receivers and extend plays. This game will be about discipline and each man on the Browns’ 53 will be putting in extra effort as a big F-U to Hue and Co. Mayfield has mid QB1 value this week with upside against a defense that makes opposing QB’s look great.
Worst Case: Absolutely not. Freddy Kitchens, the new offensive coordinator has zero experience calling shots, having been a position coach for his entire career so far. He does have some experience with some great shot-callers, but he’s going to feel a ton of pressure to succeed in the wake of the disaster that was Hue and Haley, and he’s going to flop, at least at first. Not mention that the KC defense has been playing better the last few weeks and even having home field advantage won’t help. QB Baker Mayfield can only do so much when he’s getting thrown to the ground on every play. Mayfield will eventually start winning games. This is not the week he can do it. Mayfield is a low-end 2-QB league play. Expect a lot of high school/college style plays where the offense tries to get cute but fails because they’re playing against professionals and not high schoolers/college players.
Callaway looked much better, and Jarvis is not dropping many passes, either. Is Higgins back and what will the receivers be able to accomplish this week?
Best Case: You are correct- WR Antonio Callaway caught 5-of-6 last week, including a touchdown pass while being horrendously PI’d in the end zone. He didn’t play football in all of 2017 and struggled at the start of the year, but he looks like he’s getting much better. He should be able to get free for some big plays this week against a weak KC secondary. They’re luckily getting the Chiefs at home so the Browns don’t have to compete in Arrowhead, which is a tough stadium to visit for seasoned veterans. WR Jarvis Landry will likely see double-digit targets again this week, but with Callaway stretching the field, he should have a decent day. He and Callaway each have a good chance for a touchdown. I like Landry as a high-end WR2 with upside and Callaway as a boom or bust WR3. As for WR Rashard Higgins, he is supposedly back to full speed at practice, so it looks like he will play this week. He is sorely needed and will make WR Damion Ratley doubly irrelevant since Ratley was already irrelevant. I won’t try to predict Higgins’ performance since he’s been out for so long and wasn’t really flex-worthy for fantasy purposes, but he had plenty of catches that moved the chains for the Browns and they need all the help they can get.
Worst Case: It is true that WR Rashard Higgins appears to be back at practice, but it won’t matter much. The KC defense has started to ascend, and the only offense in the last 4 weeks that has been able to score more than 23 points against them was New England. 2 of the last offenses in the Jags and the Bengals scored fewer than 15 points each, though it may simply be that those teams are also terrible. But the Browns offense made the Bucs’ defense look good and completely collapsed against a very beatable Steelers defense. Kansas City will have plenty of sacks and even more pressures, and because WR Antonio Callaway is barely NFL ready and WR Jarvis Landry is not a true #1 receiver, the offense will once again struggle to move the ball. Callaway has a medium chance for touchdown targets and a much higher chance for dropping touchdown targets. Landry will be smothered in coverage as the only competent receiver, but his catches will all come within about 6 yards of the LOS as Mayfield struggles to stay upright until Landry can get much further out. Higgins is not worth a stash, Callaway will either disappoint you in your lineup or boom on your bench, but whatever decision you will make will be the wrong one, and Landry basically begs to be played during a terrible bye-week but will have similar stats as those from last week.
Nick Chubb looked pretty good the last couple weeks, will that continue? Will we finally see more of Duke Johnson?
Best Case: RB Nick Chubb is probably the brightest spot on the team right now. Kitchens is a former TE and RB coach, and a lot of the expectation is that Chubb will be fed the rock plenty of times. Lord knows the Chiefs struggle against the run so Chubb should feast. I’m expecting close to 20 carries (he had 18 in each start the last two weeks), and maybe even some dump-offs as Kitchens will want to simply complete passes and gain yards. Usage for RB Duke Johnson, Jr, is harder to predict, but Kitchens ain’t no fool. He saw the misuse under Hue and Haley and will not make the same mistake. Expect Duke’s touches to come way up this week. I’d even give a 25% chance for a Duke TD. Chubb should be a low-end RB1, and Duke should be flex-worthy in standard and maybe a mid-range RB2 in PPR leagues.
Worst Case: RB Nick Chubb is the only bright spot on the team right now and the Chiefs know that as well as anyone. The defensive game plan will be to stack the box and Chubb will have trouble finding room to run. He will still get plenty of touches, but I predict most of those to go for zero or negative yardage. Chubb is still the goal line back, however, and even bad teams can occasionally score, so I would guess Chubb has at least RB3 value this week, and might even hit low RB2 numbers. RB Duke Johnson, Jr, is only a stash until we see how the Williams/Kitchens Browns will look.
David Njoku was still on the field while getting zero targets against a soft TE defense last week. Will this week be any different?
Best Case: Yes. TE David Njoku was still out on the field and running routes. The game plan against the Steelers was so bad that it got 2 coaches sacked, so Williams and Kitchens will be smart enough to actually use their weapons. Njoku has been playing well and seeing plenty of targets, so expect a return to form. I like Njoku as a low-end TE1 with upside this week.
Worst Case: TE David Njoku will get some targets, but the overall anemia of this offense will severely limit his production. I barely see 50 yards for him this week, though even that feels optimistic. There’s not much going on with TE’s this week, so I guess Njoku is as good as any other lottery ticket TE out there. Certainly, you shouldn’t drop Njoku. Yet.
The Cleveland Defense played relatively well. Certainly, their secondary is better than their run defense. Will they be able to stop the Chiefs, or even limit them?
Best Case: The defense has played well, that is correct. Tyreek Hill practiced in full Wednesday and then was limited Thursday. So who knows what’s going on with his groin injury, but if he can’t play, the Browns look well positioned to at least limit the Chiefs. If Hill sits, we will probably see Denzel Ward on Sammie Watkins, and Chris Conley will contend with whoever else. The Browns will limit those two fairly well, and this game will likely be a big game for Kelce rather than a wide receiver. If Hill is in, it may be to simply limit the defensive scheme and make it easier for Mahomes and Watkins. But the Browns will probably continue to generate turnovers and Mahomes has been throwing picks every once in a while. Kareem Hunt will have a decent game, as Conner did last week.
Worst Case: The defense is gassed. The simple truth is that they have been playing exceedingly well, but they are on the field far too much and have played a lot more football than the Chiefs simply by having so many overtime contests. They will tire easily and that will open up everything. It doesn’t help that the Chiefs are so dynamic this season and Andy Reid is coaching at his best with Mahomes under center. This will be a slaughter, and perhaps even close to a shutout with the Browns defense on the field for a huge chunk of the game. The bye can’t come soon enough.
I hope this was as fun to read as it was to write. Thank you for sticking with me through this experiment.
-Sam Turrubiartes