Falcons at Vikings
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 8th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: MIN -4, 47.5 Total via Oddshark
Network: FOX
Sleeper Spotlight: Brian Hill
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
- Matt Ryan
This Falcons offense is one that I want to invest in this season and it all starts with the quarterback Matt Ryan. He quietly finished as the QB 2 in fantasy last season and the Falcons made significant upgrades to his offensive line in the offseason. They used two first-round picks on a lineman and brought in a couple of guys in free agency as well. This isn’t the best matchup against Minnesota; they ranked fifth in pass defense DVOA in 2018 and they bring back most of their starting unit. I am willing to bet on Ryan, playing in a dome with great weapons around him, to be a mid/low QB1 without the ceiling that he will usually have in this game. It should also be noted that Minnesota is expected to move towards a run-heavy approach this year, controlling the clock and thus limiting higher-end play counts for opposing offenses.
Running Backs
- Devonta Freeman
- Ito Smith
Minnesota also has a great run defense ranking 11th in run DVOA last year. If you have Devonta Freeman you are starting him as he is most teams first or second running back. Freeman returns from an injury-plagued 2018 that only allowed him to play in two games. The Vikings do stop the run well but they gave up the 12th most receptions by running backs last year. Freeman does catch the ball well out of the backfield catching at least 50 balls in two of his last three healthy seasons. The Falcons other running backs Brian Hill, Ito Smith, and Qadree Ollison did nothing in the preseason to suggest they earned any kind of role while Freeman is healthy. That should lock Freeman into a near every-down role. Freeman should be an RB 2 this week on volume alone and if he can find his way into the endzone he could wind up an RB 1.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Julio Jones
- Mohamed Sanu
- Calvin Ridley
- Austin Hooper
The Falcons boast one of if not the deepest receiving corps in the NFL. They are running out superstar Julio Jones, second-year stud Calvin Ridley, and reliable veteran Mohamed Sanu at wide receiver to go with dependable tight end Austin Hooper in the middle. People are going to have the notion that this is a tough matchup for Jones, being shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes finished outside of the top 100 cornerback rankings in 2018 according to PFF and doesn’t seem like the same shutdown corner he used to be. Sanu and Ridley will be cannibalizing each other’s targets all year, unless we see new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter prioritize getting Ridley more looks this year. This makes neither one a reliable fantasy option, but both can score touchdowns any week in this high-powered offense. Hooper is just a low-end TE 1 against the Vikings where he should see four to six targets, but they will likely be of the low yard variety. Jones is a locked-in WR 1 every week, and I want shares of him in my DFS lineups because I think he could be mistakenly under-owned this week. Ridley and Hooper are probably in your lineups if you have them but they don’t stand out as particularly strong options this week.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
- Kirk Cousins
I was excited to see what Kirk Cousins could do in his first year in Minnesota last season. It didn’t go particularly well. Cousins finished 16th in points per game at the position and averaged only 27 attempts per game after OC John DeFilippo got fired. Coming into this year it is clean Mike Zimmer wants to use Cousins as a game manager and run the ball early and often. Cousins does have two outstanding receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to work with. The Falcons have one of the poorer pass rushes in the league (25th in sacks in 2018) and didn’t address it much in the offseason. Cousins should have a relatively clean pocket to work with and if the Falcons high-powered offense can put up points we could see Cousins forced to throw the ball more than planned. Cousins wasn’t drafted in most one quarterback leagues but he should be confidently played in leagues this week.
Running Backs
- Dalvin Cook
- Alexander Mattison
The Vikings are one of the only teams in the NFL that utilizes a true three-down running back. That back is Dalvin Cook and this lines up to be a great matchup for him. Cook was drafted as top-ten back in most leagues and will be fired up in every league that he is owned. The Falcons defense is widely known for giving up a bunch of receptions to running backs and the Vikings are home favorites and want to be a run-first offense. Rookie Alexander Mattison is the number two running back behind Cook. I would expect Mattison to have a bit of a role as he is a bigger back and maybe will be used into the old Latavius Murray role. That role produced about four carries a game. Murray was used in a clock-killing role and Mattison could be used in that if the Vikings get a big lead late in the game. Cook should be used a confident RB 1 this week and should be fired up in DFS lineups as well. We want to wait and see with Mattison, see if he can carve out any standalone value with Cook healthy. He remains a great stash because of Cook’s extreme injury history.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Adam Thielen
- Stefon Diggs
- Kyle Rudolph
Both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs were top-ten in the NFL in targets in 2018. There still is no significant competition for targets here besides Cook out of the backfield so their floors remain safe. The only concern with the two is the change in offensive philosophy for the Vikings this coming season. The Falcons best cornerback Desmond Trufant doesn’t shadow opponent receivers so the Vikings will have no problem in moving Thielen and Diggs around to avoid him when they want too. The other Falcons cornerbacks are unproven Isaiah Oliver and converted safety Damontae Kazee. Diggs and Thielen should both be confidently used in all fantasy leagues and I think they are viable in DFS in a game that could be a sneaky shootout. There aren’t exciting options behind Diggs and Thielen. It looks like Chad Bebee is the third receiver and will have to show some sort of opportunity before we consider rostering him at all. The Vikings will probably use two or three tight end sets throughout the game as they still have veteran Kyle Rudolph, second-year man Tyler Conklin, and drafted Irv Smith Jr. in the second round of the 2019 draft. None of these guys will provide enough volume to be usable in fantasy leagues and should be avoided for the most part.
–Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)