Ravens at Dolphins
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 8th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Betting Odds: BAL -7, 37.5 Total via Oddshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Albert Wilson
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
- Lamar Jackson
This seems like a total smash spot for the Ravens defense and their running game with the Dolphins in full-on tank mode this year. It will be great to see quarterback Lamar Jackson fully unleashed in this new Greg Roman offense after the Ravens didn’t allow him to run much in the preseason. This doesn’t set up as a ceiling game for Jackson. He shouldn’t be asked to throw a lot, and I could see the Ravens not asking him to run the ball much either because this should be game they handle fairly easily. Jackson remains a nice floor play at QB and is in more of the low-end QB 1 territory for me this week.
Running Backs
- Mark Ingram
- Gus Edwards
- Justice Hill
My favorite play from this whole game is Mark Ingram at running back. I see Ingram being the lead back on the team that should run the ball the most this week and that includes goalline work as well. The Dolphins ranked 24th in rush defense DVOA last year and haven’t done much to improve that unit heading into this season. One concerning element for Ingram is that Jackson doesn’t pass the ball to his backs much, opting to run the ball himself. He only targeted backs 3.6 times per start last season. I’d expect Ingram at 15-20 carries and maybe a target which should be enough to bring back mid-to-high RB2 numbers this week. If this game gets out of hand, I would expect to see more Gus Edwards and Justice Hill than we normally would. They should have a role every week, but if this is a blowout, the Ravens will want to save the veteran Ingram from unnecessary hits. Neither Edwards or Hill should be started in leagues this week. Keep an eye on Hill’s usage early on this season as we look to churn the backend of our benches. If he isn’t getting any playing time he could be a drop come week four or five.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Marquise (Hollywood) Brown
- Xavien Howard
- Miles Boykin
- Willie Snead
- Mark Andrews
- Nick Boyle
- Hayden Hurst
The outlook isn’t as great for the receivers and tight ends this week. I would expect the Ravens to be in the bottom-five in pass attempts for week one in the game with the lowest implied total on the week. The Dolphins boast one of the top cover corners in the league in Xavien Howard. The Ravens don’t have a true number one so I don’t see Howard shadowing anyone. We will get a look at exciting rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin, both should play significantly on the outside. Neither should be started this week but I’d like to see how many snaps they each get and if Jackson feeds them a decent number of targets compared to other players. Slot man Willie Snead is a nice security blanket for Jackson and can post some solid floor games for fantasy owners, but this game sets up as low volume pass attempt day so Snead should remain squarely on your bench. Mark Andrews has garnered a lot of buzz at the tight end position coming into this year and was reportedly the “star of training camp” this year. Andrews will be in there on most passing situations and some of the two-tight ends looks. The problem is, this game should set up as a run-heavy day for the Ravens and that means we see a lot of run-blocking specialist Nick Boyle at tight end. Last year’s first-round pick Hayden Hurst should also see an expanded role in 2019 after an injury-plagued rookie season. It remains to be seen how much his role will expand. Andrews is still the top option in the passing game but he will be a low-end TE1 that doesn’t have much of ceiling this week because of the expected low volume of pass attempts.
The Ravens Defense is one of the top options on the slate with the Dolphins recently trading solid left tackle Laremy Tunsil and burner Kenny Stills to the Texans. They boast one of if not, the best secondary in the NFL and go up against gun-slinging turnover-prone quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Ingram and the defense are the only ones I will be playing in DFS this week as the game sets up well for both of them against this tanking Dolphins team. Jackson and Andrews can also be added to those two as low-upside season-long plays this week.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
There isn’t a lot to love about the Dolphins for fantasy this week. They are going up against one of the top defenses in the league and have the lowest implied team total on the slate. Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at quarterback and was a great fantasy option last year when he started. He had the fourth-highest points-per-game of quarterbacks that started at least eight games last year. He should have a couple of great fantasy games this year as he is known for his high-risk/ high-reward style of play. Things don’t set up well for him in this game, however. The Dolphins traded his top deep threat Kenny Stills and his starting left tackle, and best offensive lineman, Laremy Tunsil a few days ago. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Fitzpatrick under pressure all game with one of the poorest offensive lines in the league. Fitzpatrick is a low-ceiling and low-floor play and should be avoided in all fantasy leagues this week.
Running Backs
- Kalen Ballage
- Kenyan Drake
The Dolphins come into the season with a two-man backfield. Sophmore Kalen Ballage and veteran Kenyan Drake are the two to watch and it is unknown how the workload will be split. I am expecting Drake to play on most if not all passing downs and to get some of the early-down work. Ballage and his 6-2, 230lb body should handle the goalline work along with some early-down work as well. A key to watch for in my opinion is if Ballage gets any passing down work. He only caught nine balls last season and if he isn’t trusted in that area, it will be harder for the Dolphins to keep him in games. Especially when they are behind on the scoreboard which is expected more often than not this season. The Ravens have a strong defensive line with Brandon Williams and Michael Pearce upfront but lost all-pro middle linebacker C.J. Mosley in the offseason. The Dolphins should try to run the ball early and often to limit possessions and keep themselves in the game. I’d prefer Drake over Ballage just for the passing game work, but neither back should be in lineups except as a low-end RB3/Flex.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- DeVante Parker
- Albert Wilson
- Preston Williams
- Allen Hurns
- Isaiah Ford
- Mike Gesicki
- Jakeem Grant
At the receiver and tight end positions, there isn’t much to be excited about in this matchup with the Ravens. DeVante Parker has struggled with consistency, despite showing flashes at times in his career. He will match up with one of solid-veteran Jimmy Smith, or stud third-year corner Marlon Humphries on the outside. Albert Wilson should split time between the slot and outside this week. He is a guy to watch as he was first in the NFL among receivers in yards after the catch and forced missed tackles per reception last year until he got injured in week seven. At 5-9, 195 pounds he could give 6-2, 210 pounds Jimmy Smith problems if they lineup across from each other. Also, running routes against slot corner Brandon Carr isn’t too intimidating as he is a solid veteran but not someone to run away from. I like Wilson’s outlook for the rest of this season more so than in this game. After those two, expect to see some sort of rotation between preseason-star Preston Williams, Allen Hurns, and gadget-player Isaiah Ford. None of these guys should be in your lineups this week but I would like to see how many snaps Williams gets and how Wilson looks off of his injury last season. We are in a wait and see mode for Mike Gesicki at tight end. He didn’t produce much as a rookie with only 2.5 fantasy points per game and 32 targets in his 16 games played. There are new coaches and quarterbacks in town so he might become an option later on in the season if he takes a big step in year two.
There just isn’t much upside with the Dolphins this week and most of them should be out of your season-long and DFS lineups, except for Ballage/Drake if you are desperate at flex already.
–Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)