Rams at Panthers
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 8th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Betting Odds: LAR – 3, 50.5 Total via Oddshark
Network: FOX
Sleeper: Gerald Everett
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
- Jared Goff
Jared Goff was being drafted as QB8 per Fantasy Football Calculator. That is about the correct spot for Goff, as he is on a stellar offense with plenty of weapons for him to throw to. But I don’t think this will be a great start to Goff’s year. The Panthers’ defense is headlined by their front seven. The Panthers added Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin, and rookie Brian Burns to a defensive line that already had Kawann Short, Dontari Poe, and Mario Addison. The Rams offensive line lost talent this past offseason. John Sullivan is being replaced by Brian Allen and Pro-Bowler Rodger Saffold left for Tennessee. The Rams better hope the offensive line holds up because Goff is a different QB under pressure. Per Bill Barnwell at ESPN, Goff’s QBR went from 83.8 to 11.3, which was the biggest slide for any QB. Goff also finished 24th in DVOA when under pressure, per FootballOutsiders. The Panthers will get after Goff in this game. Based on last season, he doesn’t look like he will be able to overcome it.
Running Backs
- Todd Gurley
- Darrell Henderson
- Malcolm Brown
Well this is tough, isn’t it? Projecting Todd Gurley this year is going to be a nightmare and week one might be the worst. This looks like a mediocre matchup for Gurley. The Panthers were 18th in DVOA against the run last season. But (and this is a huge one that will be here every week for Gurley), how much is he going to play? The Rams say that Gurley is healthy and will see plenty of touches. The issue is we do not know how or when those touches will be distributed. Will Gurley get 13 touches in the first half and then the Rams have a big lead and they rest him the second half? Will he test his knee out pregame and they decide to deactivate him? Or will they ride him hard because it’s a close contest and they need him? This is the dance we will have when deciding to start him each week.
So the Rams say Gurley’s healthy? Then why did they trade up to draft Darrell Henderson and matched Malcolm Brown’s offer sheet from the Lions? Actions speak louder than words, and the Rams showed they have concerns. Henderson should see passing game work as Sean McVay said he sees Henderson playing the Chris Thompson role. Last year, Carolina was fifth in DVOA against passes to the running backs which could limit Henderson’s impact. Brown may see some short-yardage and goal-line work, but not much else. Henderson will be a FLEX play this year but I’d pass on starting him this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Brandin Cooks
- Robert Woods
- Cooper Kupp
- Gerald Everett
As I discussed earlier, Goff could have some issues throwing the ball and this affects the pass catchers. If you drafted Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, or Cooper Kupp, you are most likely starting them. Its week one and you don’t bench the guys you drafted early. Cooks has the toughest matchup of the three as James Bradberry and the Panthers were strong against opponent number one WRs. The Panthers ranked fifth in DVOA against top WRs. Cooks only needs one play to make an impact though. So while he’s a fade for me this week, I understand you have to start him and he still has the upside and talent to overcome it. The Panthers were dead last in DVOA against number two WRs, 15th against all other WRs, and 23rd against TEs. This sets up nicely for Woods and Kupp. If Goff faces the pressure I’m expecting, he will be targeting Kupp and Woods in the short to intermediate areas of the field.
My sleeper pick for this game is Gerald Everett. Like I said earlier, the Panthers struggled against TEs last year. The Rams have talked him up as someone they want to get on the field more. On top of this, there have been several reports that the Rams will be using more 12 personnel (one RB and two TEs) instead of like their almost exclusive use of 11 personnel the past two years. Everett has the makeup of a breakout TE if the Rams get him on the field. He has all the talent, he just needs the opportunity. If you are streaming TE and don’t have any better options I’d give him a go. But if there are better options, put him on your watchlist and keep an eye on his playing time.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
- Cam Newton
Everybody breathe, Cam Newton is playing and the foot sprain doesn’t appear serious at all. Last season, Newton was off to a fantastic start. The Panthers were 6-2 until Newton injured his throwing shoulder. Then, the offense and team as a whole sputtered. Coming into the preseason, Newton said he was feeling healthy and video showed he changed this throwing mechanics. He tightened up his arm to lessen the burden on his shoulder and it looks much smoother. The Rams pose a strong test for Newton’s first game back. They were ninth in DVOA against the pass last season. The biggest concern I have for this week is that the foot might stop Newton from running early on. If so, Aaron Donald and the Rams can play Newton straight up. He should be a middle of the road play this week, but I still think Newton is going to be a top QB in fantasy this year.
Running Backs
- Christian McCaffery
Christian McCaffery is set up for a smashing week, but mostly on the ground. The Rams were 27th in DVOA against the run last season. CMC is the only RB on the Panthers worth giving the ball, so he should see plenty of opportunities to run through this weak rush defense. The Rams were fourth in DVOA in defending passes to the RB last year. The Rams lost Mark Barron, who handled a lot of the RB responsibilities, so they may not be as effective this year. If they slip a bit against the RB passes, CMC’s ceiling only goes up (it’s already pretty high). You don’t need me to tell you to start him, just do it and enjoy.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- D.J. Moore
- Curtis Samuel
- Greg Olsen
There has been a lot of hype surrounding D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel leading up to fantasy drafts. I think it was much deserved. Moore is a talented playmaker with yards after the catchability. Now in his second year, he should be able to take hold of the number one WR role and be Newton’s go-to target. The Rams were 28th in DVOA against number one WRs. Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are above average corners but they are susceptible to big plays and with the Rams usually playing from ahead passing volume rises. So, Moore probably will be kicking off his season with a strong game. Samuel is expected to make the signature third-year WR breakout. He was more of a gadget player coming out of Ohio State and the Panthers elected to bring him along slowly. That seems to have been the correct approach as he was getting rave reviews all training camp long. The Rams were ninth in DVOA against number two WRs. But with the limited passing options on the roster, Samuel should still see a good amount of target volume. Greg Olsen rounds out the top three pass-catching options (not including RBs) for the Panthers. Olsen had a rough season last year. He rebroke his foot during week one and then never hit his stride once he returned. Olsen almost retired and went into broadcasting this offseason. Olsen may not be the appealing TE option he once was but has been Newton’s favorite target and should still be rostered. I wouldn’t start him this week because the Rams were fifth in DVOA against TEs last year. I’d look for a streamer.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList)