Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 1

Jets vs. Lions

Jets

QB Sam Darnold is making history before even stepping onto the field for his regular season debut. Darnold will become the youngest quarterback to start a season opener in the Super Bowl era; 21 years and 97 days old come kickoff in Detroit against the Lions on Monday night. While he’s certainly not worth deploying as your QB to kick off your fantasy year, this means the Lions defense is. However, that doesn’t mean Darnold won’t have a productive game. Let’s take a look at who the rookie signal caller can rely on.

Which running back should get the start?

If you roster one of Isaiah Crowell or Bilal Powell, you can bet on either back to be involved in the run and short-pass game. They may not ‘wow’ your stat line, but bank on Darnold to look their way if the pressure is on and he needs to release the ball in a hurry.

If Darnold has time in the pocket, which wide receiver will get looks?

It’s Monday Night Football, and receivers want to show out on the national stage. Darnold has a nice arm, so I would look for WR Robby Anderson to be featured as a top option – flex consideration or even WR3 status depending on how your team is built. With Jermaine Kearses’ status up in the air still due to an abdominal injury, both Quincy Enunwa and Terrelle Pryor are bound to see their fair share of targets as well.

Expectation: Pryor is the WR to score for the Jets in the red zone. A nice confidence booster for him in an attempt to bounce back from a dreadful year with the Redskins.

How about the tight ends?

The TE room for the Jets is pretty much a crapshoot as it has been for quite a few years. With four being kept on the roster – Eric Tomlinson, Neal Sterling, Jordan Leggett, and Chris Herndon, none are currently worth adding to your team. Look to see how it plays out over the next few weeks, and if Darnold builds a rapport with any one of them.

My guess: Herndon, while currently listed fourth on the depth chart, emerges as the teams go-to TE come by the middle of the season.

-Matt Cava

Lions

The Lions ended the 2017 season disappointed, missing out on the playoffs with a 9-7 record that was a few inches or seconds away from being a 10-6 tie-breaking, playoff-making record. But that’s in the past, now, and with new coach Matt Patricia joining the cavalcade of talented Matts on this team (along with Matt Prater, Stafford, and Matt Cassel [who I am sure is talented at at least something]) we’re going to be spending the season opener analyzing his personnel choices, blitz packages, time management, and the general feel of the playcalling under his management. Here’s what we’re looking at in different facets of the game:

Quarterback

The past couple of seasons has seen Stafford’s efficiency raise in nearly every category. His INT% has been down, his TD% has been (mostly) up, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, etc., all better in the past two to three seasons than they were in his first six seasons. This can be attributed to growth as a veteran, but it also might have something to do with the coaching. We won’t actually know until this season, but the hope is that Jim Caldwell, the now ex-coach of the Lions, wasn’t the cause.

The issue with Stafford is that, while his efficiency has risen, his attempts have started to fall off. No longer do the Lions have to pass the ball 650 times a season to have success, and the continued move toward improving the run game with draft capital going toward Frank Ragnow and Kerryon Johnson makes me think they want to continue decreasing Stafford’s workload.

The other issue is sacks. Stafford has been sacked 173 times in the past four years, which is about three times a game. For those of you keeping track at home, that is bad.

We’re not worried about Stafford’s talent. What we’re watching for during the game on Stafford’s behalf is how often they’re passing during the early game, when game script doesn’t matter, and how long the offensive line is giving him to stay up.

If we see Stafford throw the ball 15-20 times in the first half and he has enough time to launch 5-6 of those more than 20 yards downfield, I’m much more interested in Stafford being a top 5 QB worth holding onto.

Fantasy expectations:

Ceiling of 35 PA/320 yards/2 TDs (mostly if the Jets are keeping in the game late)

Floor of 25 PA/200 yards/0 TDs (if the Lions try to depend on the run game, or Stafford is being pressured consistently)

Wide Receivers

The Lions officially have three mouths to feed in their wide receiver corps, and the big question is whether they’re going to rely heavily on any of them. Between Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., and Kenny Golladay, I’m looking at three completely different things on Monday.

For Tate, how often is he targeted on third down and in between the 20s? We’re in a pickle with Tate, due to his contract situation and possible free agent release at the end of the season. The Lions are clearly making moves with pass catchers to potentially phase Tate out of his pivotal role on the offense, so we need to look at what that role is. More than any player on the Lions last season, Tate was targeted in 3rd down situations. The bulk of his targets by a large margin came between the 20s. If he’s still getting those targets, he’s going to continue being an excellent WR2. If some of those targets start leaking to other players, we’re going to have an interesting season.

For Jones, I’m paying attention to the deep ball. Golladay is going to be playing and has shown the ability to go up and get deep passes from Stafford. If this means Jones gets less attention deep down the field, his value from last season is going to plummet. He was already an expected candidate for regression, but that’s built into his draft price. If he regresses from efficiency and has fewer chances at the deep ball, that’s really bad. I’m not concerned with him getting three or four deep shots on Monday, but I want to at least see one, just to confirm that they’re still putting that home run ball on the table each and every week.

For Golladay, it’s all about snap count. The talent is there, the chemistry with Stafford seemed there last season, and he has a year under his belt already. If he’s on the field 75-80% of the time, he’s an immediate WR2 candidate. If he’s on the field around 50% of the time, then I’m not convinced he’s going to find a major role in the offense. Golladay isn’t a rookie who needs time to find his way into the offense. He’s been here, the coaching staff knows him, and he’s shown his talent. If the coaching staff is still only putting him out there sparingly, I’m definitely concerned.

Fantasy expectations:

Marvin Jones: 6-7 targets, 4 receptions, 60-70 yards, 50% shot at a TD

Golden Tate: 7-8 targets, 6 receptions, 60-75 yards, 20% shot at a TD

Kenny Golladay: 4-5 targets, 3 receptions, 50 yards, 40% shot at a TD

Running Backs

LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, and Kerryon Johnson are all being started on at least someone’s roster this week. That’s a scary thought, as it’s going to be rough sledding out the gate.

The situation with all three of these guys is essentially the same. Who is the ball going to? Is it situational, or will someone be the go-to player?

Blount has made a career of sitting behind an offensive line for a few seconds before shoving through it for a few yards. His yards/attempt make him seem like a very efficient runner, but it’s got a lot to do with the line he’s behind. The Lions don’t seem to have a very good offensive line, so what I’m watching for here is how efficient he is when there is no hole to push through.

Riddick is the pass-catching back, but what I want to see is how often he lines up as a receiver when there’s another RB still in the backfield. That would be huge for Riddick, who might be attempting a reverse Ty Montgomery in transitioning from a running back to a receiver. That would also be huge for Johnson and Blount, who would then be able to see more time on the field.

The coaching staff has discussed Kerryon extensively, and the general rumbling is that Kerryon can earn his way to more touches by doing well on the field. As such, I don’t expect him to receive 15 touches on Monday. I’m more concerned with what he does with the touches he gets, and what types of touches he gets. Is he able to run up the middle with success, or bounce to the outside, or turn short passes into first downs? These are all very relevant bits of information. What he’s successful at will determine his role moving forward, and if he’s successful at everything we might see him in a nearly workhorse role.

Fantasy expectations:

LeGarrette Blount: 10-12 rushes, 40-50 yards, 40% chance of rushing TD

Theo Riddick: 2-3 rushes, 5-10 yards, 1% chance of TD / 6-7 receptions, 40-60 yards, 30% TD

Kerryon Johnson: 8-9 rushes, 50-60 yards, 3-4 receptions, 10-20 yards, 25% chance of any TD

Ameer Abdullah: Exists on the field in some capacity

Tight Ends

If you’re reading this with some hope of gleaning insight to a tight end position that you can stream, then I’ve got some great advice for you: stop.

The tight end position from a fantasy position on the Lions is a mess. I’m only concerned with seeing if literally any tight end is targeted more than four times. If any of them are, then I’m paying attention next week to see if they continue to make a home in the offense. Otherwise, skip it.

Fantasy expectations:

None

Defense / Special Teams

I am so extremely interested in seeing Patricia’s defense that I don’t even really know what to look for. I’m examining schemes, personnel packages, blitz decisions, literally everything I can get my hands on, just for a chance to see what on earth we’re going to see this season from the Lions.

However, don’t get too excited if the Lions do well here, and don’t get too upset if they don’t. Darnold is a rookie and the Jets are potentially very bad on offense. We don’t really have anything to use as a control group in this experiment, so we shouldn’t glean too much information here.

One of my issues with starting the Lions D/ST in week one is going to be the lack of turnovers and sacks. Darnold hasn’t been pretty in pre-season, but he has shown that he gets the ball out quickly and throws almost exclusively very short passes. That’s not good for sack numbers or for interceptions, so while it may limit the Jets total points and yards I wouldn’t expect an amazing showing from the Lions D/ST this week.

Keep an eye out on one thing statistically this week: the Lions’ yards per rush allowed. If the run defense is decent here, I consider it a big win moving forward.

Fantasy Expectations:

If things go well, 13 PA, 250-300 yards against, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions

If things go poorly, 27 PA, 350-400 yards against, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions

Kicker

Prater at home.

Fantasy Expectations:

3/3 FG, 1 over 50 yards, 3/3 PAT

-Ian Rye