Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 1

Bills vs. Ravens

Bills

The Buffalo Bills will begin their season on Sunday without the cloud of trying to end a lengthy 17-year playoff drought as they look to build upon last year’s success. Ad lot has changed over the offseason in Buffalo though, including a change at QB after they traded away QB Tyrod Taylor to the Cleveland Browns and moved up to draft QB Josh Allen out of Wyoming. It is not Allen who will be starting in this game though, it will be 2017 5th round draft pick Nathan Peterman under center. If you remember, Peterman notably had one of the roughest 1st halves of NFL football in recent memory a year ago in his NFL starting debut as he threw 5 INTs against the Chargers. Now, basic logic would suggest that he can only go up from here, and he’s proven capable of shaking that off with a solid preseason in which he went 33 of 41 for 432 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.

Now, Peterman has a track record of bouncing back from adversity and perhaps he will be able to again this week. In his first college start at Tennessee, Peterman had a hand in four turnovers — two interceptions, a fumble while being sacked and a botched handoff — before being pulled during a 31-17 loss at Florida as a redshirt freshman in 2013. He then transferred to the University of Pittsburgh following his sophomore year and excelled in his final two seasons. At Pitt, Peterman completed 61% of his attempts for 5,142 yards with 47 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 26 games, which led Buffalo to select him in the fifth round of the draft.

The task this week will be a difficult one though as the Ravens defense finished first in INTs a year ago and will have the talent to wreak havoc on the Bills 30th ranked O-Line and pressure the QB. The Bills will try and manage that by utilizing their zone run scheme where RB LeSean McCoy will again be the focus.

The Ravens finished middle of the pack last year in terms of rushing defense, but there is a case to be made that they underperformed given their trio of DT Brandon Williams, OLB Terrell Suggs, and DT Michael Pierce all ranked within the top 10 of their positions in terms of run-defence grade according to Pro Football Focus.  With another year of development from LBs C.J. Mosley and Matthew Judon, and it seems like running lanes will be difficult to find and the result is that I think it’s tough to project McCoy for a big game this week. I do think he could be more of an asset this week in PPR leagues as the Bills will likely look to keep Peterman upright by utilizing a quick, timing-based passing offense that should emphasize getting McCoy into space.

On the receiving end, WR Kelvin Benjamin and TE Charles Clay could be decent value plays this week as the top receiving options in a matchup that could see the Bills playing from behind. Benjamin finished with 17 catches and 226 yards with 1 TD as a member of the Bills last year including the playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Benjamin picked up 6 of those receptions, 91 of those yards, and the only TD while Peterman was under center last year and it’s clear that there’s a strong rapport between the duo. Baltimore will be without top CB Jimmy Smith in the game, meaning that either second-year man Marlon Humphrey (6’, 203 pounds) or veteran Brandon Carr (6’, 210 pounds) will have to cover the 6’5,” 245 pound behemoth that is Benjamin and I think that presents an opportunity for Benjamin to return Flex value this week. Charles Clay is the 2nd option in the passing game and should be targeted enough to have a chance at returning low-end TE 1 numbers. He was targeted 6 times in the main pre-season audition against the Bengals with the starters.

Kicker wise, Stephen Hauschka is a lower-end option this week based on the likely low-scoring output of the Bills this week, but he might be able to take advantage of a bend but don’t break Ravens D and kick a couple FGs. If you’re in a league that rewards kickers for long field goals, congrats on a cool league and note that Hauschka was 7 of 9 from 50+ yards in 2017 so he may be able to help you there. Then looking at the D/ST of the Bills, I think this matchup is a low-end streaming option at best currently. The Bills ranked 29th a year ago in rushing defense and ranked 30th in first downs allowed. Yes, they added some nice players like DT Star Lotulelei, DE Trent Murphy, and LB Tremaine Edmunds and should see some improvement from players like DE Shaq Lawson, but this defense is still very much unproven. The Ravens offense should be able to execute their game plan effectively behind RB Alex Collins and his elite 15.1% DVOA from a year ago which was good for third-best in the league.

-Adam Garland

Ravens

What’s Joe Flacco going to look like?

Over the years, Joe Flacco has looked like the best quarterback in football and the worst quarterback in football. Last year, he looked a lot more like the latter than the former, and considering first-round draft pick Lamar Jackson is waiting in the wings, Flacco needs to show he’s still got enough in the tank to make the Ravens’ offense relevant. Unfortunately, he’s going to be going up against a good secondary highlighted by Tre’Davious White and a deadly safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Flacco has talented receivers to throw to, but a tough secondary to go against. Fortunately, he’ll likely have plenty of time to throw, as the Bills’ pass rush is pretty bad.

How will the receiver workload pan out?

The Ravens signed three receivers who all have fantasy relevance in their pasts: Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead. Crabtree is the number one receiver and the one most likely to snag a touchdown, but both Brown and Snead are very talented receivers who can make an impact. I expect Crabtree to be covered mostly by Vontae Davis, which should be advantageous to Crabtree and could put him in a good spot for fantasy points. Brown, on the other hand, will likely see White most of the time, and Snead will likely see Taron Johnson, both of which put them at a disadvantage. Still, it’ll be interesting to see how the target shares pan out.

What will the running game look like?

It’s abundantly clear that Alex Collins is the bell cow in Baltimore, especially after the excellent season he had last year, but how will Javorius Allen and Kenneth Dixon be used? Dixon, I expect, will merely be a change-of-pace back for Collins, whereas Allen will likely be in on passing downs, giving him some potential value in PPR leagues. I also expect this game to be more run-heavy than pass-heavy, as the Bills have a good secondary and a pretty mediocre run defense. However, the addition of Tremaine Edwards in the draft this year for the Bills could improve their run defense, so it’ll be interesting to see how that shakes out.

What about the tight end?

Unfortunately, Hayden Hurst is injured and won’t be playing in Week 1, leaving Nick Boyle as the likely candidate to get tight end targets. Flacco has shown love to tight ends plenty in the past (remember healthy Dennis Pitta?), so it’s possible Boyle could see some action, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in that passing game. Plus, Boyle is likely to be primarily defended by Poyer, which puts him at a significant disadvantage.

-Ben Palmer