Game Previews: All Fantasy Relevant Players For Week 1

49ers vs. Vikings

The San Francisco 49ers started off last season losing their first 9 games before finally winning a game and looking like they were in a competition with the Cleveland Browns for the first overall pick in the draft. Then Jimmy Garoppolo happened in Week 13, and the Niners won their final five games to finish the year 6-10. During the first 12 weeks, the 49ers averaged an abysmal 17 points per game. Once Garoppolo took over, that number skyrocketed to nearly 29 points per game, including dropping a whopping 44 points against Jacksonville, the best defense in the league. The man known as “Jimmy G” remains undefeated heading into 2018, but he’ll be facing perhaps his greatest test to date in Week 1 with a road tilt against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings completed a magical season last year, highlighted by the “Minneapolis Miracle” before falling one game short of the Super Bowl. Unlike the 49ers, the Vikings are legitimate Super Bowl contenders again this year. Gone is Case Keenum, replaced by arguably the biggest prize in free agency this offseason, Kirk Cousins, under center with a bevy of playmakers and an elite defense to back him up. Cousins was considered the favorite to sign with former coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco before the now infamous trade for Garoppolo. Cousins vs. Jimmy G will undoubtedly be the story of the game. Can Garoppolo keep the 49ers’ winning streak going? Is Cousins the answer in Minnesota? A date at U.S. Bank Stadium awaits in Week 1.

49ers

With Jerick McKinnon out for the season, how are the 49ers likely distribute their running back touches? Will they be successful this week?

The team brought in Alfred Morris off the street to pair with Matt Breida. In 5 games started for Dallas last season, Morris averaged 4.8 yards per attempt with a long rush of 70 yards on one carry. While not known for his receiving chops, Alf also reeled in 7 of 9 targets as well, though he should not be expected to be a consistent contributor in the passing game the way Jerick McKinnon would have been. Morris is still only 29, with far less wear and tear than most backs his age. He is very familiar with coach Kyle Shanahan’s system from their time together in Washington, where Morris was a two-time Pro Bowler and ran for over 1,000 yards three consecutive years. It’s been four years since the two paired together for that kind of prolific production and he’s still reacclimating himself to the offense, so Breida will probably shoulder the better part of the timeshare against Minnesota. Additionally, expect fullback Kyle Juszcyk to help pick up the slack a bit on the passing downs, as Breida tied for the NFL lead in drops last year on only 36 targets. The matchup against Minnesota is not a favorable one at all. The Vikings held opponents to 83.6 rushing yards per game last season and a meager 3.7 yards per attempt. Consider both Morris and Breida in the RB3 range at best this week.

Fantasy Prediction:

Alfred Morris: 10 carries, 42 yards; 1 catches, 6 yards

Matt Breida: 12 carries, 48 yards; 2 catches, 15 yards

Kyle Juszcyk: 2 carries, 8 yards; 3 catches, 26 yards  

Can Jimmy Garoppolo put up some points on the road in Minnesota?

Kyle Shanahan is perhaps the best offensive play caller in the NFL, and he’s had an entire offseason to prepare for the Vikings. That being said, planning and execution are two different things. Minnesota allowed a league-low 13 TDs and 6.0 yards-per-attempt to opposing quarterbacks last season. Further dampening the outlook is the fact that the Vikings only allowed 192 yards per game to quarterbacks last year as well. An entire offseason mastering Shanahan’s playbook, along with added playmakers Pierre Garcon (injured last season before Garoppolo took over) and explosive 2nd rounder Dante Pettis moving around the formation should help, but the Vikings’ defense returns all their significant starters, added DL Sheldon Richardson, and spent a 1st round pick on CB Mike Hughes, a physical press corner who should manage the slot. With more tape on Garoppolo for Mike Zimmer’s defensive to digest, expecting more than middling QB2 numbers from “Jimmy G” might be a fool’s errand.

Fantasy Prediction:

Jimmy Garoppolo: 23-37, 227 yards, 1 TD; 3 rushes for 16 yards

The 49ers pass catchers feature an array of mismatches and athletic, SPARQ profiles. Who is most likely to be a difference maker in this game?

None have enticing matchups. Elite cover corner Xavier Rhodes may not have the speed to matchup with WR Marquise Goodwin, so it won’t be surprising to see him glued to Pierre Garcon. Coming off a neck injury and having very little time to build a rapport with Garoppolo, Garcon could be rendered a non-factor unless he can pull down a contested catch in the end zone. Goodwin emerged as the go-to receiver last year, and there’s a good chance he’ll remain so this season after showing improved route running skills. He’s a burner, but DB Trae Waynes can fly as well, so Goodwin’s best asset may not give him much of an advantage at all. He’ll get his targets though, and there’s always the chance for a big play. The 49ers best chance to move the ball on key downs may be to attack rookie CB Mike Hughes in the slot with WRs Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis and underneath routes to fullback Kyle Juszcyk and TE George Kittle. Kittle emerged as the team’s premier red zone weapon last year, but he missed most of the preseason with a shoulder injury. He should be full-go for this game, but fantasy owners hoping for a solid return will likely need to hope for a score considering how few yards the Vikings are projected to allow tight ends this season. None of the 49ers receivers are recommended plays, but if forced into playing one, Goodwin and Taylor have the best chance to produce, with Kittle the most likely to lead the team in red zone targets whenever the 49ers sniff the goal line.

Fantasy Prediction:

Pierre Garcon: 4 catches, 45 yards

Marquise Goodwin: 6 catches, 60 yards

George Kittle: 4 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD

Dante Pettis/Trent Taylor: 3 catches, 35 yards

With Cousins at the helm, is the 49ers defense a poor stream this week?

Not necessarily. As mentioned in my preseason Offensive Line rankings, the Minnesota line arguably does not feature a single solid starter, and it’s the lowest rated overall PFF rank of any line in the league. The 49ers don’t yet have the outside pass rush presence required for DC Robert Saleh’s scheme to truly thrive yet, but DT DeForest Buckner could be looking at a breakout year. That being said, FA corner Richard Sherman is coming off a torn ACL and stud ILB Reuben Foster is suspended for the first four games. The secondary boasts some young talent, but they will be tested by star WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, along with touchdown maven, TE Kyle Rudolph. New Vikings’ OC John DeFilippo gets a lot of credit for his work with the Eagles last season, but Philadelphia possesses the best offensive line in football. The motley crew Minnesota will be trolling out every week could restrict some of what DeFilippo would like to replicate from his success in Philly. The 49ers will look to manufacture pressure and force Cousins into a few sacks and ill-advised throws in this game. On the road against what could be a prolific offense despite its line woes, the 49ers are not a recommended defense stream, but this game will be worth watching to see how they fare against a potentially explosive offense.

-Paul Ghiglieri

Vikings

After Kirk Cousins average preseason, what do you expect from his first game in a Vikings uniform?

Kirk Cousins had a boring preseason, going 24-40 with 236 yards 1 TD and no turnovers. He now gets the 49ers who were the 25th ranked defense and allowed 23 PPG last season. To put it simply, the 49ers defense was not good. An extra year of growth from DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead on the defensive line, as well as another year of growth from LB Reuben Foster should help with pass rush and the addition of CB Richard Sherman will assuredly help, but I don’t see them doing enough to stop Cousins from having a solid first half, before turning to Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray in the second half. Kirk will enjoy his new toys in Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph and will navigate his team to handing Jimmy Garoppolo his first loss as a 49er.

Fantasy Prediction:

Kirk Cousins: 22-35, 232 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

With two potential top 10 WRs in fantasy this year, which WR will be the one to watch for the Vikings, Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs?

Last season we saw a breakout from Adam Thielen, posting 91 catches for 1,276 yards and 4 TDs. Now paired with Captain Kirk, I am expecting Thielen to post his first 100 catch season as a pro. Jamison Crowder was Cousins favorite target out of the slot for the Redskins, and I expect that Cousins will be Hooked on a Thielen early and often in this one. Although I am locking in on Thielen being a target hog, he won’t be catching the lone Cousins TD in this one. Stefon Diggs is awesome when he is healthy, catching 8 TDs last year in just 14 games. He had two games last year where he had multiple TDs and this season he is primed for many games where he is targeted in the end zone. Listen, if you have one of these two WRs, you are starting them every week (until Diggs gets hurt). In PPR, I like Thielen to put up more points, but just barely.

Fantasy Prediction:

Adam Thielen: 8 catches, 93 yards

Stefon Diggs: 5 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD

Will Latavius Murray do enough to have any flex appeal in week 1?

The short answer here is….no. If we look back to last year, Latavius Murray only had 6 carries through his first 3 games with Dalvin Cook as the starter. Yes, I know that McKinnon was also present, but all in all, in a week where no one is on bye, there are simply better options available. I think he may get 8-10 touches in week 1, but those won’t turn into much. Don’t get cute in week 1, you probably only have Murray if you also have Dalvin Cook or don’t believe in his health. I would feel much more comfortable starting an upside play like Jeremy Hill if you are desperate and hoping he pulls off a Mike Gillislee 3 TD Patriot debut.

Fantasy Prediction:

Dalvin Cook: 22 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD, 4 catches

Latavius Murray: 7 carries, 24 yards, 2 catches

Are there any sleeper fantasy plays that you are looking out for?

If you have the studs for the Vikings, you are playing them – Cousins, Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, Cook, and their nasty defense that was one of the top fantasy defenses from a year ago led by Xavier Rhodes. However, one guy that I’m looking to that I have on my fantasy watch list given the injury history of Stefon Diggs is Laquon Treadwell. He has been running as the WR opposite of Diggs with Thielen in the slot and I am watching to see if he can form any sort of connection with Kirk Cousins, especially in the red zone. Am I starting or even picking him up this week? No, there is no need as you would be the only one that owns him other than his parents. However, if he can snag a few early season TDs, he could quickly be put on some radars as a bye week fill in.

–Matt Dean