Bengals vs. Colts
Bengals
Will Andy Dalton take advantage of a bad Colts secondary?
If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s really hard to count on Andy Dalton. Every time you think he’s going to be awesome, he bombs, and often when you think he’s going to bomb, he throws four touchdowns and looks like a demigod. This week, I feel pretty safe relying on Dalton, as the Colts’ secondary is terrible. Last year, the Colts’ pass defense recorded a league-worst 28.5% DVOA and they don’t look all that different this year. While Quincy Wilson provides a small highlight as a capable corner, the likes of Pierre Desir and Nate Hairston make this secondary look pretty terrible, and Dalton has the receiving corps to take advantage.
How will the non-A.J. Green receivers perform?
I think it’s fair to expect a big game from A.J. Green, given how many targets he’ll likely see and the fact that Desir will likely be his primary defender. But beyond Green, what will John Ross and Tyler Boyd look like? That will be good to pay attention to. Can Ross use his blazing speed to beat the Colts’ secondary for some deep balls? Will Tyler Boyd get some love? Both are important to pay attention to, because both Ross and Boyd are talented receivers who could have some flex appeal later in the season depending on their roles.
What will the running game look like?
Obviously Joe Mixon will be the number one guy this week, and given that the Colts have a poor run defense (outside of Jabaal Sheard), I expect Mixon to take advantage. However, what will be interesting is seeing what role Giovani Bernard plays. Bernard saw a lot of work in the passing game last year, and if he continues to see that work, he could have some value in PPR leagues, so that’s worth paying attention to.
Will Tyler Eifert make it through the game without breaking?
Tyler Eifert is a talented tight end, but injuries have derailed his past two seasons significantly. Hopefully he can make it through this game without any significant injuries, however that’s not necessarily a given. That being said, if he’s healthy, Eifert can be a touchdown machine, he’s just a risky fantasy play. He’s likely to mostly see Clayton Geathers in this game, which should be a fairly even matchup, so look to see how his role shakes out this game.
-Ben Palmer
Colts
What is expected of Andrew Luck’s return?
First things first, Andrew Luck’s foot injury did not appear on the initial injury report. Unfortunately for him (and the rest of the Colts), the Bengals return a lot of 2017’s production with three draft picks (Sam Hubbard, Malik Jefferson, and Jessie Bates III) expected to make contributions on the defensive side. Indianapolis is expecting left tackle Anthony Castonzo to play, but with RB Marlon Mack likely on the sideline, look for the Colts to throw even more. Luck is a safe play any time he is healthy, but one of the key points to watch will be how his decision-making holds up later in the game/if his new receivers fail to create space.
Are there any playable options in the backfield?
There is nothing to suggest that Indianapolis is about to roll out an effective rusher this week. Cincinnati was among the league’s worst defenses against backs last season surrendering 109 yards to these same Colts a year ago. However, with the top two backs likely out for this week, rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines could take over a steady amount of work. Christine Michael may also emerge, but Wilkins looks like the only playable option. Nothing more than a FLEX play in standard-sized leagues, the Colts are likely to substitute short passing routes for a run game.
Is T.Y. Hilton still a WR1 option?
Owners who were plagued by T.Y. Hilton’s inconsistency last season will not be looking at this week’s matchup with too much optimism. The 2017 matchup with Cincinnati yielded just two receptions for 15 yards. The plus side is that Andrew Luck is now leading the offense, the downside is that the supporting cast is no better than it was a year ago. Expect Luck to look at Hilton early and often, but those targets may easily yield to the tight ends in this Frank Reich offense. More of a WR1/2 type this week, Hilton is still a must play with a scarily low floor.
Are the tight ends legit?
Put simply: Yes, yes they are. Andrew Luck has always found success with his tight ends (Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Jack Doyle), and the new offense should optimize that for maximum production. The running game will likely call for Doyle to find more snaps than Eric Ebron, but also look for the latter to emerge as a substitute in shorter routes. Both with eventually push downfield for more intermediate routes, against a defense that struggled against the position last year. Doyle touted a season-best 12 receptions, 121 yards and a score in the previous matchup with the Bengals.
-Michael Collins
Cards switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 this season, not the other way around