Steelers vs. Browns
Steelers
What is happening with Le’Veon Bell and what should I do about it?
As recently as two weeks ago the only concern with Bell was that he might get a light week one workload. Suddenly it looks almost certain that he won’t play against the Browns in the opener. There’s some speculation that Bell will sign on Saturday of this week, much like Aaron Donald last year, enabling him to collect a week one paycheck. Donald missed week one last year, however. Suddenly James Conner is a locked in week one starter at running back and a must add waiver pick up. Jaylen Samuels seems to be the primary backup as a 5th round pass catching rookie. Conner and Samuels are both young players that didn’t test all that well at the combine, so we probably shouldn’t get too carried away. But a major role in the Steelers offense is certainly worth a fantasy roster spot. Just remember that as soon as Le’Veon returns, their value will disappear.
What will the Steelers offense look like with a new offensive coordinator and no Bell?
The Steelers new offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner was their quarterbacks’ coach last year and seems to have a good relationship with Ben Roethlisberger. With likely no Bell in week one, a pass-heavy no-huddle approach seemed like a distinct possibility. Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster appeared to be in line for a heavy workload, especially with tight end Vance McDonald out for week one. Rookie wide receiver James Washington has flashed in the preseason and looked to have a shot at some significant action. However, the weather report looks bad, with 20 mph winds and rain in the forecast. It has the potential to be the ugliest weather all season. Brown and Smith-Schuster are strong plays in every league in a normal week. You have to play Antonio, and probably JuJu as well, despite the weather. Conner is a worthy RB2/Flex in almost all leagues in Bell’s absence, and could be leaned on in sloppy conditions. Washington should be watchlisted and would continue to benefit from Bell’s absence if his holdout continues, but the weather kills any week one value. Jesse James could see an increased amount of dump offs if the weather is really bad, but a low scoring game would hurt his touchdown potential. Keep an eye on the weather up to kickoff, high winds are the main concern for fantasy.
Is the Steelers defense a solid streamer against the Browns anymore?
This matchup has been a lock for years when streaming, as the Steelers defense traditionally has its way with the Browns. The Browns have added Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry, among others, and look poised for an improved 2018 offensively. Yet in 2017 the Browns gave up the most points to opposing fantasy defenses, and with a new offensive coordinator, quarterback, number one receiver, and starting running back, a slow start would not surprise me. Tyrod’s lack of turnovers and home-field advantage for the Browns keep the Steelers from being an elite defensive option, so keep your eyes open for better defenses that hit waivers. But if you missed out on the best matchups, the Steelers defense is a solid option in week one. I’m willing to target the Browns for one more week and see if their struggles continue into the new season.
Should I worry about Ben Roethlisberger’s history of poor performances on the road in this week’s game at Cleveland?
Roethlisberger has always been better at home than on the road, but he did narrow the gap last year. If you have an elite alternative at quarterback then, by all means, use him. But if you aren’t willing to play Roethlisberger at Cleveland then you probably shouldn’t have drafted him. The Browns gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year, and until I see improvement from the Browns in the regular season, I am going to continue to target them. Without Bell, Roethlisberger should go to the air early and often. Ben projects as a mid-level QB 1 this week, with upside if it turns into a blowout or shootout.
-Erik Smith
Browns
How’s the weather up there?
Unfortunately, the weather is not going to be great in Cleveland on Sunday. Weather service does predict heavier rains in the afternoon, but it may make for more run-centric game planning than otherwise, we might see. Expect more usage for RB Carlos Hyde than may be normal. I’m thinking he could approach 18 carries if the game is as competitive as it is expected to be and the rains make passing difficult.
Fair enough. Actually, the most pressing question I have is about Josh Gordon- what is going on there?
WR Josh Gordon is supposed to be on a snap count, but we don’t know exactly what that means. It’s the type of non-committal statement head coaches love and for all the crap Hue gets about being a bad coach, it’s simply not something that can be relied on for insight one way or the other. Gordon himself says he is 100% healthy, so if the Browns are down, especially by a significant margin, I would expect to see more Gordon, if they’re ahead, maybe a little less. Either way, Gordon is probably not a volume dependent receiver, he’s a big play receiver. He’s also dominant against the best CB’s in the league pretty much off the couch as he showed last season against Casey Hayward. The biggest knock for Gordon is probably that long bombs are less likely than usual because of the rain, and harder to catch if they do come. Gordon has frequently made much out of nothing, though, so it’s really a crapshoot if you want to play Gordon. FWIW, I’m playing Gordon in every league I own him. I just wouldn’t be able to forgive myself if he went off on my bench.
What about Landry? All the hype throughout camp has been about his great connection to Taylor and how he’ll be an outside receiver now.
Well, if WR Jarvis Landry is going to be outside, then the Browns have smoke-screened us all pretty well. The majority of his routes during the preseason were in the slot, and that’s where he shines, anyway. Landry was a target monster last season, but it seems like overall Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley are interested in a strong vertical passing game which would favor long passes (I.E. Josh Gordon). I expect that Landry’s targets will regress to maybe 80-100, and to make 65-90 catches. Landry’s low yardage totals will probably follow him, and he’ll have about 4-7 touchdowns on the season. As for this week in particular, I think Landry can have about 5-8 catches by taking advantage of the Steelers’ zone defense scheme, and shorter passes are more likely in bad weather. Landry is an excellent route runner, so his only weak point is in yardage totals. Play him in PPR, for sure, but for standard formats maybe try to find a better match up. I am definitely not high on Landry for this game in particular where I have him pegged as a FLEX with WR2 upside.
The Steelers are a pretty dominant offense, is this going to be a shoot-out?
There’s actually a good possibility that this game remains fairly close, and as mentioned the weather makes running plays more likely than normal. If the Steelers do lean on the run, the Browns have a sneaky good run defense- they were a top 7 run defense last season and have only gotten better with everyone healthy as can be. They’ve also improved quite a bit in their secondary, and the Vegas lines reflect the Browns as the favorite to win by 2-3 points. That might just be because of where the money is being laid down and the Browns are getting so much hype because of the great team they are on paper as well as being featured in HBO’s Hard knocks, but it’s looking like the running backs from both sides will see plenty of work. QB Ben Roethlisberger’s home/away splits also indicate a closer than usual game for the Browns compared to the last two seasons. Add in weather concerns and the indication from the Vegas line is that game script will allow Hyde to see plenty of carries.
Will Nick Chubb split carries with Hyde?
I doubt that very much. Hyde showed very well in the preseason, so the role of lead back is his to lose. However, being a lead back still usually only means getting about 65% of total touches out of the backfield. So RB Nick Chubb will probably play as Hyde’s change of pace, but I don’t think he should be in lineups of 12 teams or fewer. Deeper leagues, or maybe teams that drafted both Bell and McKinnon may get lucky with a TD from Chubb, I just wouldn’t count on it.
What can we expect from Duke Johnson, Jr?
It’s hard to say at this point. Obviously, he’s the preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield, but supposedly he will see more route running this season. I think RB Duke Johnson is a great FLEX option for PPR leagues, but probably shouldn’t be played in standard.
What can we expect from Taylor?
QB Tyrod Taylor is someone I believe in as a top 10 QB on the season. However, with the weather concerns and the relatively low scoring predicted by Vegas, this may not be the best week to play Taylor. If you have no one else, just know that Taylor’s rushing should buoy his stats and keep him in the QB2 conversation at a minimum.
Are there any other Browns players of note?
Everyone should be aware of WR Rashard Higgins and WR Antonio Callaway. They are only speculative adds in deep leagues, but they could be in line for some major fantasy production if injuries clear the way.
How are you so handsome and rugged?
Oh, stop it, you!
-Sam Turrubiartes
Cards switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 this season, not the other way around