Welcome back to the Dynasty Futures Report. I took February off. Needed time to recharge the batteries and take a vacation. Back this month with a little twist.
This month I give you four players who are great dynasty stashes and then re-visit an old entry and give you some updates on where they are now and how the outlook for them has changed. As a refresher, these are guys you may know but you can either get off waivers or very cheaply. I wouldn’t pay more than a mid 3rd round rookie pick for these guys. I lay out the pathway for them to have relevancy and what they can do physically and on the field even if it is in limited snaps. Continued are the five guys you can cut, and five other players you should hold onto.
Khalil Shakir: WR, Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are clearly in their Super Bowl window. They have built the team to compete now. They have some great offensive weapons notably quarterback Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. The Bills have also seen production from wide receiver Gabe Davis and tight end, Dawson Knox. The Bills have struggled to find their third wide receiver. In 2021 they tried to roll with Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. In 2022 they signed Jamison Crowder and used Isaiah McKenzie. They even brought in Beasley last season for the playoff run. Despite some of them having a decent number of catches and yards they have failed to get in the end zone and haven’t been more than a one-year fill-in. One of the Bills’ biggest needs this offseason has been a wide receiver and while they can still bring some in it won’t be a piece for the long haul. Stefon Diggs is turning 30 and has three more years on his contract. Once he is up for a new deal the team will have to make a tough choice on what to do with the 33-turning 34-year-old receiver. After this season as well like Gabe Davis will be a free agent and the team just cut Isaiah McKenzie. The Bills started to look to the future in the 5th round of the 2020 draft when they took Khalil Shakir from Boise State. He has to contend with Deonte Hardy and Trent Sherfield.
Shakir had a good four-year college career at Boise State. Twice he led the team in receiving. Despite being only 6’0” and 196 lbs at the combine he was able to produce in college putting up 20 touchdowns and 2878 yards. He was very consistent with those touchdowns evenly spread over his last 3 years. He had a good combine running a 4.43 forty time and average times in the other drills. He came to the Bills last season and was slower to get into his role. He had to wait for Jameson Crowder to get injured and then still fell behind Isaiah McKenzie in snaps. He did start finding more opportunities later in the season. He finished the year with only 10 receptions for 161 yards and a score but watching the film you saw what could be. Looking at the Week 7 game against the Steelers, Shakir had five targets, catching three of them for 75 yards and a touchdown. He had 25 of those yards after the catch and finished the year with just over half of his total yards after the catch. Compare that with his teammate Stefon Diggs who only had 30% of his yards after the catch and Gabe Davis who had only 17.5% of his yards come after the catch. Posting 51.5% of his yards after the catch is a great sign. He should take the next step in his sophomore year. With Josh Allen throwing the ball, the sky is the limit for Khalil Shakir.
Teagan Quitoriano: TE, Houston Texans
Let’s just face it. The Houston Texans’ offense was not great last year. They struggled at most of the skill positions. It took three games for Damien Pierce to take over the role and then he missed the end of the season due to an injury. The quarterback position was a mess with Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel taking turns under center. The receiving core saw a rotating cast with none of them playing all 17 games. The tight end room saw six different guys catch passes. One of them was Teagan Quitoriano. There has been a lot of hype for fellow tight end Brevin Jordan but he has missed 14 games in two seasons. Last season Jordan Aikens and O.J. Howard played the majority of the teams’ snaps and received a large chunk of the teams’ tight end targets. Both Aikens and Howard are gone from the team now. 2023 will have newly acquired Dalton Schultz in the starting job. Based on last year there is room for another tight end to have opportunities. The Texans are lacking real wideout depth. Their best player Brandin Cooks has been looking for a trade for what seems like a whole calendar year. They will have Nico Collins but he has struggled with injuries. Reports are John Metchie is making positive strides in returning from his battle with cancer. They will most likely draft a wideout or two this year. They have five picks in the first 3 rounds including 2 and 12 overall. It’s a lock that they will take a quarterback at 2 and could use 12 for the top wide receiver on their board. Either way, it’s a new group. It’s also a new coaching staff who isn’t beholden to any previous draft capital or depth charts. This should open the door for Quitoriano to shine.
A point I would like to make here and now is that we as a fantasy community start calling him TQ. It’s easier to say and much easier to type. So henceforth he will be referred to TQ.
The rookie tight end played in only nine games and only had 7 receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns. In those games, he played over 60% of the snaps 6 times. Fantasy managers love Brevin Jordan but he has had health issues. TQ should be the one with the hype. He was healthy for all his games and just inactive to start the season. despite playing two fewer games than Jordan he ran one fewer route. He ran routes on 73.7% of his passing snaps. He had lower college production than we really want to see. He only caught 6 touchdowns in four years and 26 games. He played in the Pac-12 for Oregon State so got some games against some future NFL players. He was a 5th-round draft pick so there isn’t a ton of draft capital involved but he has some athletic traits that make him stand out. He is 6’6” and 258 lbs. He is a massive human out there on the field. He also is a touchdown machine. In college, he caught only 40 passes but had 6 touchdowns. In his rookie season, he caught 7 passes with 2 touchdowns. I don’t think that touchdown rate can continue with increased production but he can be a fantasy producer. He has a basketball background which allows him to use his big frame to get position and go get balls. He is a capable blocker which allows him to be on the field in all situations. He needs to continue to work on his route running but that is a normal thing for rookie tight ends. With a rookie quarterback incoming, the tight end position could be crucial. New head coach DeMeco Ryans comes in from the 49ers. Although he was on the defensive side of the ball he saw what a good all-around tight end can do for a team while watching George Kittle.
Samori Toure: WR, Green Bay Packers
The Packers’ offense is in a state of change. They are turning the page and handing over the offense to Jordan Love, three years after drafting him in the first round. They let their leading wide receiver, Allen Lazard walk in free agency. They will head into the 2023 season with a receiving core of Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Samori Toure. The scheme will be the same that saw them be top 10 in total passing attempts despite only passing the ball on 56.61% of their plays. They have two good rushers in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon who both can catch the ball out of the backfield. The Packers will continue to get young over the next few years. They have three solid young wide receivers. There is always a chance they bring in a veteran. The Packers have some tough choices next off-season. Dillon is set to hit free agency and Jordan Love’s fifth-year option is coming due. The Packers have been a the bottom half of the league in passing play percentage since Matt LaFluer took over as head coach. He will continue to grow and change his offense based on his team’s needs and skill set. The Packers have traditionally not been ones to trade away or acquire many high draft picks and have often used them on the defensive side of the ball when they do have them.
Samori Toure was a seventh-round pick in the 2022 draft. he split his college career between Montana before finishing at Nebraska for his senior year. In his Senior year 46 receptions for 898 yards and 5 touchdowns. He also added one rushing touchdown. Those numbers did not fully translate to his first year in the NFL. He played in limited games only seeing 10 total targets. He did catch 5 of them, one of which was for a score. He is a tall receiver at 6’3” and 191 Lbs. He lined up 63.2% of the time in the slot with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs on the outside. He has a smooth running style both in the open field and in traffic. He isn’t overly fast but runs solid routes and has good hands which are an inexperienced quarterback’s best friend. He can be used in motion. He has good vision and finds a way to get extra yards. He isn’t afraid to run around people or run through them. He has the height to be a solid blocker in the run. Watching college film he seems to enjoy mixing it up with DBs. His frame is big enough that he can hold the edge. He might struggle against more physical slot corners or safeties but get in the way enough to leave room for the rushers. He can also be a very solid red-zone threat. He rounds out the wide receiver trio that all measure above 6’1”. He has also spent the past year spending time with the second team where now starter Jordan Love was throwing. He comes into this year with the chemistry and opportunity to take the next step.
Colby Parkinson: TE, Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks shocked everyone last year by not drafting a quarterback and giving the starting job to Geno Smith. They ended up having a great season. They go into this year’s draft with the 5th overall pick thanks to the trade with the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks have a young core with running back Kenneth Walker and wide receiver D.K. Metcalf. They have some other veteran pieces around those guys like Tyler Lockett and Geno. The Seahawks have been pricing together the rest of the offense with failed draft picks and non-productive veterans. The Seahawks have utilized the tight end position to fill in the offensive gaps. In the past two years, two of the top five targets leaders for the team have been tight ends and they usually have three in the top 10 of targets on the team. The team received Noah Fant in the trade last year when they sent Russell Wilson to the Broncos. He led the tight end room with 50 receptions. He was followed by Will Dissly with 34 and then Colby Parkinson with 25. The Seahawks ran two tight end sets% of the time which was the most in the league and three tight end sets 13% of the time which was the second most in the league. In fact, the last time they weren’t in the top 5 in two tight-end sets was back in 2019. While it’s great to be out on the field it is more, the tight ends often cannibalize the opportunities from each other. While all three ran routes on over 80% of their snaps none of them ranked in the top 15 of all tight ends in targets. The Seahawks have to start making some choices on their roster going forward. While Geno has been good he is 32. They should be bringing in a new quarterback sooner rather than later. Noah Fant and Cody Parkinson will be free agents after the 2023 season and Will Dissly hits the open market the following year. Cody Parkinson could end up being the one that Seattle sticks with for the longer term.
Parkinson is the youngest of the three. He is just over 24 years old. Fant is a year older and Dissly is two years older. Parkinson is also a giant of a man at 6’7′ and 251 lbs compared to Fant and Dissly who are both 6’4” and 250 and 265 lbs respectively. There are some good metrics that point to Parkinson taking the next step in his development and importance to the offense. He had five deep targets last season which was the 19th most. He also had 6 red zone targets, ranking 32nd. He also had 144 yards after the catch. With his frame and size, it’s hard to bring him down. Parkinson is entering his fourth year which is usually the breakout year for NFL tight ends. Parkinson came to the Seahawks in the 4th round of the 2020 draft. He was a junior coming out of Stanford. He had to work behind Dalton Schultz for a chunk of his college career but was able to post 12 touchdowns over his 3-year, 31-game career. He had a letdown of a junior season where he only had one touchdown but had a career-high in receptions with 48 and yards with 589. He fits the mold of a big slot receiver more than an inline tight end and even in that group he is a bigger tight end. At 6’7” he creates a mismatch against slot corners or linebackers. He has solid route-running skills and good hands. Coach Pete Carroll can move Parkinson around and get that missed matches to create opportunities. Parkinson isn’t the best blocker so he needs to be out running routes. With his age and size and experience, he can be a piece for the Seahawks going forward. If the Seahawks decide to not sign him after this season he should get a role on another team.
Kyle Trask: QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Below is my write-up on Kyle Trask from December 2021. I thought it would be good to review this since things have drastically changed since then. His college stats and accolades remain. He learned from Tom Brady for two years and got tutelage from Bruce Ariens, Todd Bowles, and Byron Leftwich. He now is in competition with Baker Mayfield. Mayfield got $4 million, 1 year which puts him outside the top 5 in backup salaries. While many believe that Baker will be the starter they are forgetting he was on 3 different teams last year. It’s not as if he was dominating the league. The Bucs still have great receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Rookie Cade Otton looked good at the tight end position. They have moved on from Leonard Fournette but Rachaad White looks more than capable of carrying the load. It’s a weak division and while the Bucs can make a run at the division title they could also just be bad and go for a better draft pick in 2024 and rebuild the offense around Trask, White, and Otton. It would have been nice to have seen Trask get more regular season reps. We did see in Week 1 of the pre-season that Trask completed 25 of his 33 attempts for 258 yards, a score, and a pick. That’s a completion percentage of 75.75% completion percentage. That was without Evans or Godwin playing. It was a sign of what he can do. Week 2 of the preseason didn’t go as well. Trask only completed 11 of his 24 attempts for 105 yards and an interception. Tampa will have to sure up the offensive line to protect Trask or Mayfield. At this point in the offseason you have to buy a guy who has a 50/50 chance of starting. Even if he is the back up he will probably play. Last season almost all the backups played in at least a few games and some teams had to roll out three different quarterbacks.
From December 2021:
Tom Brady is the goat. Even at age 44, he is putting up top 5 QB numbers. But the fact remains he is 44. His battle with father time has to come to an end at some point, and he has only been signing 1-year contracts with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This prompted the Bucs to Draft Kyle Trask in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft. Other than Trask the Bucs have 10-year vet Blaine Gabbert who is also finishing up his one-year contract. The 2021 NFL draft was loaded with quarterbacks. We saw the first 3 picks be used on what teams and fans were hoping would be franchise quarterbacks. We had 5 go in the first round in total and much has been written and discussed about them. Lost in that was the 6th quarterback taken, in Trask.
Kyle Trask is no joke a good quarterback. Let’s take a look at the Heisman Finalist. You have winner DeVonta Smith, future first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, Patriots rookie star Mac Jones and then 4th is Florida Gator product, Kyle Trask. He beat out the 5th place guy. A running back you may have heard of named Najee Harris. Kyle Trask broke records during his time with the Gators. He holds the record for most yards in a season with 4283 which beat Tim Tebow, Rex Grossman, and Danny Wuerffel. He has 2 games with 474 yards which only trail Tebows 2009 sugar bowl performance of 482 yards. He holds the single-season passing touchdown record with 43. The kid just balled out his senior year. He now gets to sit behind and learn from the greatest quarterback of all time. Some of the knocks against Trask in the draft process are some of the things Brady is great at. Trask lacks adaptability and liked to go throw his progressions. Brady is great at that. He is a big body at 6’5” 236 lbs. He doesn’t have the athletic ability of some of the other guys so he is a pocket passer. Brady is an amazing pocket passer.
The Buccaneers have a great coaching staff, some of which will probably end up coaching other teams in 2020 but he still benefits from them for a year. He would inherit a great pass catcher in Mike Evans. Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski don’t project to be with a Brady-less Bucs team in 2022. He would probably get a new running back as both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are free agents after the 2021 season. Honorable mention to KeShawn Vaughn as a stash. He would have Tyler Johnson who he has probably been practicing with and who has shown signs of being a capable NFL wide receiver and tight end Cameron Brate who isn’t horrible. There would certainly be growing pains for Trask as he has yet to take an NFL snap but he is the air apparent on a good team with a great system of coaches and players around him to get him ready to take over whenever Brady decided to retire.
5 Cut Candidates
Tyler Badie- RB, Denver Broncos
Two teams in his first year. Only one NFL carry.
Jeremy Ruckert- TE, New York Jets
Didn’t play as a rookie. Behind veterans. QB play does not favor TEs.
Gerrid Doaks- RB, Houston Texans
Reserve/future deal. Was on and off the practice squad last year.
Dez Fitzpatrick- WR Pittsburgh Steelers
Reserve/future deal on his 2nd team in year 3.
Simi Fehoko- WR Dallas Cowboys
The team added veterans. 5th round draft capital. Almost no snaps.
5 Hold Candidates
Noah Fant- TE Seattle Seahawks
Has led the team in TE receptions. 1st round draft pedigree.
Daniel Bellinger- TE New York Giants
Still young and showed promise as a rookie. Waller is constantly hurt.
Zach Wilson- QB New York Jets
High draft capital. Gets to learn from a Hall of Famer.
Jalen Tolbert WR Dallas Cowboys
The team added veterans. 3rd round draft capital. can move up the depth chart with injuries.
Terrace Marshall- WR Carolina Panthers
2nd round draft capital and college pedigree. new team offense.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire