Each week, I’ll use my OPPO metric (OPportunity POints) to go through who had the most valuable opportunities of the week, who has been scoring less than their looks would suggest, and who has been overperforming with the opportunities they’ve been given. This season’s data can be found here.
Highest OPPO
Brian Robinson Jr. is proving the viability of a zero-RB strategy. He’s been crushing it from a triple-digit draft position, with an ADP of ~100 (RB35 by NFFC). He’s been RB4 overall after being drafted at that discounted rate, and he may be getting better, as he just had his best week by OPPO. He saw 17 carries and 9 targets this week, which were good for 20.1 points on 20.8 OPPO. He was expected to earn 7.0 catches, 119.6 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. To put up a 20+ OPPO with that low of an expected touchdown total is impressive, and speaks to the high floor of Robinson’s workload. He’s absolutely going to win some leagues this season.
Keenan Allen has been a PPR darling for a decade now, averaging almost 6.5 catches per game for his career. That trend continued this week, as he saw 16 targets, which he turned into 27.6 points and 34.4 OPPO. That OPPO figure led the league by nearly 10 points this week and is the 4th-most by a player this season. Those targets were expected to earn 9.7 catches, 112.2 yards, and 2.3 touchdowns (most in the NFL this season). With Chargers wide receivers dropping left and right, Allen has been there to pick up the available targets, and he’s predictably making the most of them.
After being featured in the underperformers section last week, David Njoku led tight ends in OPPO this week. He earned 15 targets this week, tied for most by a tight end this season, and looks to be a core component of Cleveland’s post-Deshaun Watson offense. Njoku underperformed yet again, scoring 12.6 points on 21.9 OPPO. Those targets were expected to return 10.8 catches (most by a tight end this season), 81.9 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. He’s been putting up elite volume all season and could be an underappreciated performer come fantasy playoffs.
OPPO Underperformers
Jerome Ford has been a serviceable starting running back for the Browns, but he can be even more. He’s not a big factor in the passing game (~4 targets per week), but he should still see some improvement in his receiving stats (9 catches vs. 11.9 expected, and 45 yards vs. 80.2 expected). In addition to a more rounded profile from his positive receiving regression, he should also have earned 35 more yards on the ground. Ford should put up numbers closer to his 13.7 OPPO per game as he starts to find his footing as Cleveland’s lead back.
Pittsburgh has been a tough place to find useful players this season, but Diontae Johnson should definitely be one going forward. He’s seen nearly 9 targets per game over the last four weeks, but he’s only managed less than 6 yards per target. That number will go up (even with questionable playcalling and quarterback play). He’s underperformed by nearly 100 yards, and that should rebound going forward. Those extra yards will generally yield more touchdowns, and there is some positive regression to be expected there, as well. I’m absolutely not saying Pittsburgh will become a passing juggernaut, but Johnson deserves better results, and I’d look for him to score his OPPO of ~15 points per game going forward.
Another week of generally expected performance from tight ends, but I’ll still highlight Evan Engram as an underperformer. Jacksonville has a diverse set of skill players, and Trevor Lawrence does a good job of spreading the ball around. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for Engram, though, as he’s averaged 7+ targets per game over the last month, which is a hearty amount for a tight end. Those targets were expected to earn slightly more yards (154.8 expected vs 129 actual) and touchdowns (0.5 expected vs 0 actual). He won’t be a stud, top-of-the-league talent, but he’s more than useful as an injury/bye-week replacement and should have plenty of weeks where he scores around his 11.9 OPPO.
OPPO Overperformers
Jaylen Warren has been flying all over the field over the last four weeks. He’s averaged over 9 yards per carry across 40 carries, which is incredible (and incredibly unsustainable). Those carries were expected to return nearly half of the yards he’s actually earned from them (337 vs 184.0 expected). That type of overperformance in yardage always flows into an extreme overperformance in touchdown scoring, as is the case here (2 touchdowns vs. 0.1 expected). Warren has been counting on the big play, which is a treacherous skill to rely on week-to-week. Based on his opportunities, he’s still the #2 behind Najee Harris, though those roles may be shifting because of Warren’s performance. With that in mind, I’d expect him to score in the low double-digits, closer to his 10.0 OPPO per game than his 16.2 points per game.
Eagles receivers have been previously featured in the overperformers section, with this week’s member being DeVonta Smith. Smith is catching everything thrown his way, with 16 catches on 18 targets (11.5 expected catches). When you have nearly 40% more catches than expected, you’re going to have lots of trickle-down overperformances. Sure enough, Smith has nearly 100 yards more than expected and 1 touchdown more than expected. The Eagles have a top-tier offense, so you could argue that some overperformance is to be expected, but I’d still preach some caution if you’re expecting Smith to continue scoring 15+ points per game. I’d look for him to score closer to his 10.6 OPPO per game, probably somewhere in the low teens.
The Houston offense has been surprisingly good all season, and Dalton Schultz has been a notable part of it the last 4 weeks. On slightly more than 6 targets per game, Schultz has earned nearly 10 yards per target, compared to an expectation of 7.5. As I’ve previously discussed, yardage overperformance leads to touchdown overperformance, though Schultz has a marginal level of it (2 touchdowns vs 1.1 expected). When baking in his regression across the board, I’d look for Schultz to flirt with being a starting-caliber tight end. His OPPO of 10.6 is playable, especially in deeper leagues, but you may want to look and see if there’s a better option on the wire.
Quick Hits
Here’s where I call out players who didn’t earn a write-up but are still worth mentioning because of notable OPPO over the last four weeks:
RB: Rachaad White (16.6 OPPO per game; RB5), Joe Mixon (15.5; RB6), Rhamondre Stevenson (13.6; RB15), Aaron Jones (12.9; RB19), Alexander Mattison (11.9; RB24)
WR: Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (19.8; WR5), Adam Thielen (15.1; WR15), Ja’Marr Chase (14.6; WR18), A.J. Brown (12.9; WR24), Stefon Diggs (11.5; WR30)
TE: Trey McBride (15.0; TE3), Taysom Hill (12.8; TE5), Travis Kelce (11.2; TE12), Kyle Pitts (7.9; TE18)
Don’t agree? Think someone else has been even luckier/unluckier this season? Let me know at @blandalytics!
(Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)