Each week, I’ll use my OPPO metric (OPportunity POints) to go through who had the most valuable opportunities of the week, who has been scoring less than their looks would suggest, and who has been overperforming the opportunities they’ve been given.
Highest OPPO
Austin Ekeler continues where he left off last year. Kellen Moore said Ekeler would be “the guy” for the Chargers, and he delivered on that promise, getting him 26.4 points on 23.5 OPPO. Those opportunities were expected to yield 3.7 catches, 91.0 yards, and 1.8 touchdowns. Ekeler did most of his damage on the ground and even underperformed his touchdowns (1.8 xTD vs 1 scored). If his recent ankle injury allows, he’ll be an elite RB in Los Angeles again with his combination of talent, versatility, supporting cast, and play calling.
Another familiar face from last season’s version of this series is Tyreek Hill. He lapped the league in both points scored and OPPO, earning 44.5 points on 33.1 OPPO. He did it in typical fashion: dominating air yards (227) and targets(15) which were expected to yield 8.5 catches, 138.1 yards, and 1.8 touchdowns. The Dolphins are going to look Hill’s way early and often, and if he can make big plays like he did this week (and his whole career), this is going to be his first of many appearances at the top of the ranks.
Wrapping up our top OPPO (tOPPO?) trio is Zach Ertz, because they have to throw the ball to someone in Arizona. In what is hopefully just a down week for TE (compared to last season, where this would only be the 35th biggest week), Ertz put up a meager 8.1 points on 16.9 OPPO, but just missed a touchdown by inches, one example of Joshua Dobbs showing his limits as a passer. Dobbs threw for a meager 192 air yards (Tyreek Hill, alone, saw 227 air yards), with 56 of them going toward Ertz (on 10 targets). Those targets were expected to result in 6.9 catches, 62.5 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns. Ertz’s floor makes him a decent filler TE for those in desperate need of an injury replacement, but there is no upside to speak of in that offense (until Kyler Murray hopefully saves the day).
OPPO Underperformers
Josh Jacobs remains the heart of Vegas’ ground game. He saw 19 carries (4th most this week), and chipped in a few targets, too. Jacobs uncharacteristically couldn’t capitalize on his looks, though, either by gaining chunks of yards (48 rush yards vs 74.2 expected) or by scoring (no touchdowns on 1.3 xTD). If he’s rostered by an impatient manager, I’d definitely look to put an offer in, as I think the 19.5 OPPO he earned this week showcases what he can be expected to bring most weeks. This is a guy who has a track record of elite volume and performance. One week should not undo weeks and seasons worth of evidence that he is a capital-D Dude.
Tee Higgins shouldn’t surprise anyone by appearing in the underperformers section. Zero receptions on 8 targets will do that. In a terrible day for the passing game, Higgins was one of a few Browns & Bengals who underperformed. He definitely won’t put up a goose egg every week, and I’d look for him to settle into the low double digits that we’re expecting from him (13.9 OPPO this week) as the #2 option in what should generally be an explosive Cincinnati passing attack.
In a game where Dallas could seemingly do no wrong, Jake Ferguson left some points on the table (3.1 points on 14.0 OPPO). Two receptions on 7 targets is definitely disappointing, but the biggest letdown has to be the 0 touchdowns. Dak Prescott looked his way a few times in the red zone, to the tune of 1.1 xTD, but had nothing to show for it. I don’t know that that pace is sustainable for a TE on an offense with a diverse passing game, but it does show that Dallas will scheme him some high-value plays. That has plenty of value in fantasy, and I’d look for him to rebound towards 8-10 points per game in the weeks to come.
OPPO Overperformers
Aaron Jones is picking up where he left off last season, scoring 26.7 points on 12.2 OPPO. Jones vastly overperformed through the air, earning 86 yards (on 2 catches!) and a touchdown on an expectation of 16.9 yards and 0.1 xTD. He even chipped in another touchdown on the ground (though that was likelier, based on his 0.6 rushing xTD). He generally outperformed his OPPO last season, but only by ~1.7 points per game. I think low double digits are a safe expectation for him in a Green Bay offense that put up a whopping 38 points in Week 1.
Brandon Aiyuk paced San Francisco’s passing game, catching all 8 of his targets for 32.9 points (vs 15.2 OPPO). Anyone who catches all of their targets will be overperforming their expectations (it’s the inverse of Tee Higgins’ blurb above), but Aiyuk also capitalized with the ball in his hands. Gaining 129 receiving yards on “only” 109 air yards is a pretty impressive feat. Some of that is scheme, as the 49ers are pretty clever about getting their playmakers the space to make plays, but I would preach a little caution in expecting that going forward. I still like Aiyuk and his mid-teens OPPO, but this may be the high point of his season.
Hunter Henry made do with the handful of looks he saw. Putting up 16.6 points from 5 catches and 6 targets is tidy work. I wouldn’t expect that going forward, given that he was tied for 5th most targets on the team (11% target share), and even that may be overstating his involvement, since Mac Jones threw the ball 54 (!) times against the Eagles. Henry should be a fine lower-tier TE putting up low double-digit points (11.3 OPPO this week), but I wouldn’t expect him to be TE1 overall (which he was this week) in future weeks.
Quick Hits
I wanted to have a space to call out players who don’t have a write-up but are still worth mentioning because of notable OPPO this week.
RB: Tyler Allgeier (17.5 OPPO per game; RB6 overall), Kyren Williams (15.4; RB11), Saquon Barkley (11.2; RB29), Jahmyr Gibbs (6.8; RB45), Najee Harris (5.5; RB48)
WR: Puka Nacua (24.7; WR2), Jakobi Meyers (22.4; WR3), Nico Collins (19.2; WR10), Garrett Wilson (10.1; WR44), CeeDee Lamb (16.4; WR73)
TE: Durham Smythe (13.4; TE4), Dawson Knox (6.1; TE23), Kyle Pitts (6.0; TE26)
Don’t agree? Think someone else has been even luckier/unluckier this season? Let me know at @blandalytics!
Feature photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire