Opportunity Report: A Look At Week 2 Matchups Using Volume Metrics

Why Volume?
Efficiency production gets the attention and highlights in your Twitter feed, but having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see what players are getting the best opportunities to produce on the field, thus scoring you fantasy points. After all, your players can’t score fantasy points for you if they never get the opportunity. You want as many dart throws at scoring fantasy points as possible.
Reading the Opportunity Report

 

Let’s take a look at who is historically getting all the opportunity in each matchup in Week 2.

 

Thursday Night Matchup

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

 

Tampa Bay at Carolina Panthers – Offenses

 

Tampa Bay @ Carolina – Running Backs
  • Unsurprisingly, Christian McCaffrey falls in the “Elite” categories for volume. He led all backs in targets in Week 1 with 11.
  • What may be somewhat surprising was the usage of Dare Ogunbowale. With many fantasy managers avoiding the Tampa Bay backfield, Ogunbowale finished above average in receiving opportunities for the Buccaneers. Keep an eye on his usage as the season progresses.
Tampa Bay at Carolina – Pass Catchers

 

  • With all the preseason buzz about Curtis Samuel, some managers may be a bit panicked by his Week 1 usage. If you have one of those owners in your league, this may be a buy-low window for the talented receiver.
  • Greg Olsen may be old and injury-prone, but there is no doubt that Cam Newton looks for him downfield. Olsen finished in the “Elite” category for tight ends in the market share of air yards in the Panthers offense.

 

Sunday Early Games

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

 

Dallas at Washington – Offenses

 

  • Washington is currently sitting on a sky-high passing play rate of 78%. All the more surprising is that Washington led for a good chunk of this game. Could there be overlooked value in this offense?

 

Dallas at Washington – Running Backs

 

  • Chris Thompson was a focal point of the Washington offense. If he remains healthy, Thompson should continue to get volume in this offense.

 

Dallas at Washington – Pass Catchers

 

  • After Week 1, rookie Terry McLaurin looks to be a receiver that Washington wants to get the ball to down the field. He had seven targets but racked up an impressive 149 air yards or about 21 air yards per target.

 

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Tennesee Titans (1-0)

Indianapolis at Tennessee – Offenses

 

Indianapolis at Tennessee – Running Backs

 

  • Marlon Mack had 25 touches, all of which were rushes. Indianapolis never abandoned the running game, but continue to be wary of starting Mack in games in which the Colts are more than a touchdown underdog. He is game script dependent.

 

 

Indianapolis at Tennessee – Pass Catchers

 

  • Rookie A.J. Brown looked like Tennessee’s number one receiver last week. He had the third-most snaps at the receiver position, but look for that to increase as he continues to be efficient with his opportunities.
  • T.Y. Hilton scored two touchdowns in Week 1, however, Hilton had an “Elite” level of the Colts target share. If the run-heavy playcalling tendencies continue, Hilton will need continued touchdown help to return the expected value.

 

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

 

Seattle at Pittsburgh – Offenses

 

  • Russell Wilson continues to be forced to be extremely efficient in order to put up QB1 numbers. Seattle continued the 2018 trend of running a  low-volume offense. Players in this offense will need to make the most of the few opportunities they get to keep pace.

 

Seattle at Pittsburgh – Running Backs

 

  • Chris Carson had only a 6% target share within the Seattle offense in 2018. Carson led all running backs in target share in Week 1. As mentioned before it’s a large slice of a small offensive play pie in Seattle, however, it is worth monitoring if this was simply taking what the defense was giving them or a new wrinkle in their offensive scheme.

 

Seattle at Pittsburgh – Pass Catchers

 

  • After Week 1 it looks as though Pittsburgh wants to get James Washington to ball deep. He put up “Elite” yardage in air yards on only six targets. This could make Washington a boom or bust option, especially if we can wrestle the WR2 position away from Donte Moncrief who only caught three of his ten targets.

 

  • D.K. Metcalf, not Tyler Lockett, led Seattle in targets and air yards. He and Carson were the Seahawks offense. D.K. Metcalf is still only 46% owned in Yahoo leagues. Check your waiver wire.

 

Buffalo Bills (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

 

Buffalo at New York – Offenses

 

Buffalo at New York – Running Backs

 

  • Frank Gore was not a major part of the offense in Buffalo. Devin Singletary dominated the snaps. Although he only had nine total touches, the Bills showed they want to see what they have with their rookie.

 

Buffalo at New York – Pass Catchers

 

  • If you were paying attention (or stacking in DFS) in Week 1, you should know about the new John Brown to Josh Allen deep connection. Under the radar, Cole Beasley cobbled together nine targets and could be a viable PPR receiver this year.

 

  • The Giants offense had the top tight end when considering volume in Evan EngramSterling Shepard got his targets, but Cody Latimer also posted intriguing numbers. It’s a small samples size, but make a mental note and continue to monitor his volume going forward.

 

New England Patriots (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

 

New England at Miami – Offenses

 

  • Miami was playing catchup all afternoon in Week 1, yet they only had 47 plays on offense. That is extremely low and is not promising for any Dolphins that may be on your roster.

 

New England at Miami – Running Backs

 

  • Rex Burkhead turned in a better performance than James White from the volume perspective. With Damien Harris inactive for the first week, Burkhead had a clearer path to work. This is the Patriots backfield, so proceed with caution.

 

New England at Miami – Pass Catchers

 

  • Despite the abysmal start on offense, there were signs of life, especially with Mike Gesicki. The athletic tight end was a popular flyer at the position in drafts. In Week 1 he posted above-average numbers for the position.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Houston Texans (0-1)

 

Jacksonville at Houston – Offenses

 

Jacksonville at Houston – Running Backs

 

  • Jacksonville was telling the truth when they said they wanted to get Leonard Fournette more involved in the passing game. Fournette got as many targets or more as guys that we think of as pass-catching backs, including Week 2 opponent Duke Johnson.

 

Jacksonville at Houston – Pass Catchers

 

  • DeAndre Hopkins was “Elite” in every metric I measured, but you knew that.

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

 

Minnesota at Green Bay – Offenses

 

  • You read that correctly, Minnesota had only 11 passing plays. At the risk of sounding like an overreaction, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs owners may want to consider selling on name value while you still can. This coaching staff has made it very clear that this is a run-first offense.

 

Minnesota at Green Bay – Running Backs

 

  • Aaron Jones did not have a great first impression for the 2019 season. He also played the Bears on the road in Week 1. The volume numbers show pretty definitely that Jones is the running back that’s going to get the touches. Hold him and his efficiency will hopefully catch up to that volume.

 

Minnesota at Green Bay – Pass Catchers

 

  • Something strange happened with the new Green Bay offense in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers threw the ball to his tight end, Jimmy Graham. Graham had an “Elite” air yards performance with above-average targets for the position. Fantasy owners that took a gamble on him, may be rewarded.

 

Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0-1)

 

Los Angeles at Detroit – Offenses

 

  • Detroit’s 80 plays run in Week 1 is a byproduct of overtime and their Arizona Cardinals uptempo offense. They ran an average of 63 plays per game in 2018. Don’t expect a repeat performance in Week 2.

 

Los Angeles at Detroit – Running Backs

 

Los Angeles at Detroit – Pass Catchers

 

  • Danny Amendola put up huge volume in Week 1. He may have a rapport with Matthew Stafford. Remember Detroit ran about 17 more plays than their 2018 average so don’t expect 13 targets from week to week.

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

 

San Francisco at Cincinnati – Offense

 

  • Cincinnati was much more uptempo with Zac Taylor than their 2018 offensive average. They ran pass plays on an insane 80% of their plays. While that won’t sustain, there may be increased volume for Bengals pass catchers going forward.

 

San Francisco at Cincinnati – Running Backs

 

San Francisco at Cincinnati – Pass Catchers

 

  • That’s right, John Ross. John Ross had 12 targets! He was top 10 in average separation at the point of catch or incompletion according to Next Gen Stats. Check your waiver wires.

 

Arizona Cardinals (0-0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

Arizona at Baltimore – Offenses

 

  • Get a part of the pass-happy Arizona offense. Week 2 has them playing the Baltimore Ravens who led the league in plays per game in 2018 with about 71 plays per game. This one may be full of opportunity for your players to get you points. Take note for regular and daily fantasy.
Arizona at Baltimore – Running Backs

 

  • Maybe Baltimore was hiding Mark Ingram once the Miami game got out of hand, but the splits on touches in this backfield are too close. We may have a three-headed committee at running back and a very capable runner at quarterback in Lamar Jackson. That’s not enough volume to go around. I’m avoiding this backfield.
Arizona at Baltimore – Pass Catchers

 

  • Marquise Brown may have stolen the show in Week 1 with his super-efficient performance on just eight receiving routes run, but Mark Andrews showed he’s the guy to own in this offense. Andrews easily saw the most looks and was near the top in his position in tight end volume. Feel comfortable with him going forward.

 

  • Rookie KeeSean Johnson saw an above-average amount of targets and air yards in Week 1. He is only owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues. He may be your entry point into this offense if new addition Michael Crabtree doesn’t absorb some of his looks.

 

Sunday Late Games

 

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-0)

 

Kansas City at Oakland – Offenses

 

Kansas City at Oakland – Running Backs

 

  • Those concerned about LeSean McCoy eating too much into Damien Williams role may feel slightly better after seeing the Week 1 splits. Williams holds the pass-catching role as of now and more than doubled Shady in snaps. Just remember this isn’t the same offense Reid ran in Philadelphia with McCoy. The timeshare may increase as McCoy gets more familiar with the offense.

 

Kansas City at Oakland – Pass Catchers

 

  • One game sample, but Darren Waller was on par with Travis Kelce in volume. The offensive options are fairly narrow in Oakland. I’m not saying he’s Kelce but his path to opportunity looks really good. Is he still available in your league?

 

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

 

New Orleans at Los Angeles – Offenses

 

New Orleans at Los Angeles – Running Backs

 

  • Alvin Kamara is who you drafted. Congratulations if you hit the draft lottery.

 

New Orleans at Los Angeles – Pass Catchers

 

  • Cooper Kupp picked up right where he left off prior to his injury. It’s picking your poison with this Rams receiving corps. In DFS, take the cheapest option and feel confident in production.

 

Chicago Bears (0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)

Chicago at Denver – Offenses

 

Chicago at Denver – Running Backs

 

  • Tarik Cohen had similar volume as Cooper Kupp. According to Pro Football Focus, he led all running backs with 32 snaps and 6 targets from the slot. He’s still in the Top 12 in targets to the slot when you include wide receivers.

 

Chicago at Denver – Pass Catchers

 

  • Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders looked to be Joe Flacco’s favorite targets, but tight end Noah Fant just missed the “Above Average” cut in targets and air yard market share and target share. With Flacco’s past success throwing to the tight end and the two getting more time to build a rapport, Fant could be someone to watch.

 

Sunday Night Matchup

 

Philadephia Eagles (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

 

Philadelphia at Atlanta – Offenses

 

Philadelphia at Atlanta – Running Backs

 

Philadelphia at Atlanta – Pass Catchers

 

  • The Philadelphia pass game looked like it was ready to take things to the next level with the deep connection between Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson. Jackson was the most targeted receiver on the Eagles and impressed with an 89% catch rate with an average depth of target of over 15 yards! If Jackson can main more boom than bust outings, he could be a WR1 by year’s end.

 

Monday Night Football

 

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)

 

Cleveland at New York – Offenses

 

  • The Browns struggled to keep Baker Mayfield upright in Week 1 giving up 5 sacks on 16 pressures to Tennessee. Their Week 2 opponent, the New York Jets, got 17 quarterback pressures in Week 1. Unless the Browns sure up their line or get rid of the ball quicker, it may be another uncomfortable day for Mayfield.

 

Cleveland at New York – Running Backs

 

  • With reports that Adam Gase never wanted Le’Veon Bell, Gase didn’t have a problem deploying the running back giving him 23 touches total. Bell was in the “Elite” category in both targets and receptions for running backs.

 

Cleveland at New York – Pass Catchers

 

  • Jamison Crowder led all receivers in targets and target share in Week 1. It’s well known that quarterback Sam Darnold loves to throw to his slot receiver dating all the way back to his time at USC. We will have to see what kind of hit his volume will take with Darnold out with mono.

 

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com, AirYards.com, PFF.com

Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire

Kenny Hyttenhove

Kenny loves the underdog. He's spent his entire football watching life making arguments about the teams and players he loves most. My namesake Ken "The Snake" Stabler (HOF), Emmitt Smith (Better than Barry), Colts (Peyton v. Brady) and so on. A self-described data nerd. He lives with his wife and daughter in Columbus, Ohio and his day job is an elementary school teacher.

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