Opportunity Report: Week 1 Review

Why Volume?

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

Reading the Opportunity Report

Color	What Does It Mean?	Category Name
The player is highlighted in blue	The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position.	I call this the “Elite” category.
The player is highlighted in green	The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position.	I call this the “Exceptional” category.
The player highlighted in yellow	The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position.	I call this the “Above Average” category.

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets) of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Running Back

Week 1: Running Back Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	IMPLIED TOUCHES	TOUCHES	rATT	GZ rATT	TGT	FPTS
Derrick Henry	TEN	61	75.3	34	34	31	2	3	16.1
Josh Jacobs	LV	49	77.8	31	29	25	1	6	35.9
Christian McCaffrey	CAR	65	97	27	26	23	2	4	28.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	46	66.7	27	25	25	6	2	19.8
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	63	87.5	26	25	22	2	4	27.7
Saquon Barkley	NYG	59	86.8	24	21	15	1	9	12.6
Malcolm Brown	LAR	44	60.3	22	21	18	2	4	26
Aaron Jones	GB	42	53.8	22	20	16	3	6	17.6
Joe Mixon	CIN	40	58.8	21	20	19	0	2	6.1
Austin Ekeler	LAC	50	67.6	20	20	19	0	1	9.7
Alvin Kamara	NO	45	66.2	20	17	12	2	8	23.7
Raheem Mostert	SF	37	59.7	20	19	15	1	5	25.1
Ronald Jones II	TB	33	47.1	20	19	17	1	3	10.2
Benny Snell Jr	PIT	29	45.3	20	19	19	0	1	11.3
Todd Gurley II	ATL	36	45.6	19	16	14	3	5	13.7
Kareem Hunt	CLE	36	49.3	19	17	13	1	6	12.1
Kenyan Drake	ARI	58	70.7	18	18	16	1	2	14.5
Melvin Gordon III	DEN	37	62.7	18	18	15	2	3	15.6
James Robinson	JAX	34	68	17	17	16	0	1	10
Peyton Barber	WAS	29	41.4	17	17	17	6	0	14.9
Adrian Peterson	DET	24	30.8	17	17	14	0	3	14.4
Devin Singletary	BUF	51	58.6	16	14	9	0	7	10.3
David Montgomery	CHI	29	44.6	16	14	13	0	3	8.4
Latavius Murray	NO	23	33.8	16	15	15	1	1	4.8
David Johnson	HOU	48	81.4	15	14	11	0	4	19.9
Nyheim Hines	IND	39	52.7	15	15	7	1	8	27.3
Jonathan Taylor	IND	26	35.1	15	15	9	1	6	14.9
Cam Akers	LAR	24	32.9	15	15	14	0	1	5.3
Dalvin Cook	MIN	30	57.7	14	13	12	3	2	21.8
Zack Moss	BUF	39	44.8	13	12	9	3	4	11.7
Myles Gaskin	MIA	39	62.9	13	13	9	0	4	10.6
Chris Carson	SEA	28	45.2	12	12	6	0	6	24.6
Joshua Kelley	LAC	18	24.3	12	12	12	2	0	12
Boston Scott	PHI	38	55.9	11	11	9	0	2	7.4
Nick Chubb	CLE	35	47.9	11	11	10	0	1	5.6
Jamaal Williams	GB	31	39.7	11	11	7	1	4	8.2
Chase Edmonds	ARI	28	34.1	11	9	6	0	5	13.5
Antonio Gibson	WAS	18	25.7	11	11	9	1	2	6.4
Mark Ingram II	BAL	21	35.6	10	10	10	0	0	2.9
Sony Michel	NE	19	29.7	10	10	10	1	0	9.7
Alexander Mattison	MIN	19	36.5	10	10	6	0	4	12
James Conner	PIT	15	23.4	10	8	6	0	4	3.7
Tarik Cohen	CHI	30	46.2	9	9	7	0	2	6.7
Darrel Williams	KC	23	33.3	9	9	7	0	2	5
D’Andre Swift	DET	34	43.6	8	6	3	1	5	11.3
Le’Veon Bell	NYJ	32	57.1	8	8	6	0	2	6.6
J.D. McKissic	WAS	31	44.3	8	4	3	0	5	0.9
Corey Clement	PHI	25	36.8	8	8	6	0	2	4.1
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	19	32.2	8	8	7	1	1	4.5
James White	NE	19	29.7	8	8	5	0	3	8.2
Jerick McKinnon	SF	19	30.6	8	6	3	0	5	13.4
Jordan Howard	MIA	9	14.5	8	8	8	3	0	6.7
J.K. Dobbins	BAL	23	39	7	7	7	2	0	14.2
Carlos Hyde	SEA	21	33.9	7	7	7	1	0	8.3
Kerryon Johnson	DET	20	25.6	7	7	7	0	0	1.4
Rex Burkhead	NE	19	29.7	7	7	7	0	0	3.2
Marlon Mack	IND	11	14.9	7	7	4	0	3	8.6
Devontae Booker	LV	8	12.7	7	7	4	0	3	8.2
Avg. Wk. 1 RB	NFL	25	37	10	9	8	1	2	8

Josh Jacobs led all running backs in PPR scoring in week 1. We always knew he could get it done on the ground, but he showed he was dangerous through the air as well. The Raiders targeted him six times on Sunday, which was tied for 5th for all running backs. Unfortunately, none of the targets were within the red zone or even closer in the green zone, but we will take it after Jacobs’s lack of involvement in any meaningful way in 2019. If this continues, you can count of Jacobs being a bell-cow back with overall RB1 potential.

The talk of fantasy Twitter since draft night has been Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH did not disappoint in his debut on the Thursday Night opener. Much had been made of how CEH would fit as a dynamic pass catcher in the powerful Chiefs offense, however, he did most of his work on the ground. He ran the ball 25 times and was only targeted twice. If you look closely, however, you will see the Edwards-Helaire received an astonishing six carries within the 5-yard line! Though he was unable to capitalize on those green zone touches, if he continues to see these looks and can reach the end zone (which he will if regression kicks in), the sky is the limit in an offense as high-powered as Kansas City’s. Oh yeah, he can catch too, so there is that avenue for future growth. Look for continued Elite numbers from CEH.

Nick Chubb looks like a game-flow dependent back. Since Kareem Hunt has come to Cleveland, Chubb averages 15 PPR points per game and only 10 PPR points per game when trailing according to rotoviz.com’s Game Splits tool. The volume and PPR points told the same story in week one. As the Browns trailed Baltimore, Hunt saw 19 implied touches, which includes six targets and a green zone rush. Chubb saw only 11 implied touches with one target and 0 rushes within the green zone. Make sure to watch the Vegas lines when the Browns play. If it looks like a negative game script, get Hunt in your lineup.

Wide Receiver

Week 1: Wide Receiver Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Davante Adams	GB	70	89.7	43	17	42%	163	48%	96%	41.6
DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	77	93.9	49	16	43%	103	54%	102%	29.1
Amari Cooper	DAL	68	94.4	43	14	38%	113	40%	85%	18.1
Jamison Crowder	NYJ	48	85.7	38	13	39%	109	41%	88%	24.5
Calvin Ridley	ATL	68	86.1	50	12	23%	41	10%	42%	33.9
Julio Jones	ATL	65	82.3	47	12	23%	188	46%	67%	24.7
Russell Gage	ATL	55	69.6	46	12	23%	89	22%	50%	20.4
Will Fuller	HOU	47	79.7	32	10	32%	129	46%	80%	19.2
John Brown	BUF	81	93.1	50	10	22%	102	36%	59%	19
Diontae Johnson	PIT	55	85.9	34	10	32%	63	29%	68%	9.7
Quintez Cephus	DET	62	79.5	35	10	24%	129	35%	61%	7.3
Odell Beckham Jr	CLE	55	75.3	33	10	29%	129	34%	67%	5.2
Sammy Watkins	KC	55	79.7	28	9	28%	59	40%	70%	21.5
Stefon Diggs	BUF	82	94.3	52	9	20%	89	31%	52%	16.6
Parris Campbell	IND	61	82.4	39	9	20%	107	37%	55%	14
Allen Robinson	CHI	53	81.5	36	9	25%	148	47%	70%	12.3
Mike Williams	LAC	58	78.4	30	9	31%	147	44%	77%	10.9
AJ Green	CIN	45	66.2	30	9	26%	132	45%	70%	10.1
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	44	74.6	28	9	25%	100	33%	61%	9.6
DJ Moore	CAR	58	86.6	37	9	27%	100	36%	65%	9.4
TY Hilton	IND	59	79.7	40	9	20%	109	38%	56%	9.3
Adam Thielen	MIN	50	96.2	31	8	32%	143	54%	85%	31
Darius Slayton	NYG	58	85.3	42	8	23%	102	44%	65%	28.2
Robby Anderson	CAR	55	82.1	35	8	24%	82	29%	56%	25.5
DK Metcalf	SEA	61	98.4	39	8	23%	118	55%	73%	19.5
Robert Woods	LAR	61	83.6	29	8	29%	18	13%	52%	17.9
Tyler Lockett	SEA	58	93.5	38	8	23%	77	36%	59%	17.2
Corey Davis	TEN	66	81.5	39	8	20%	95	36%	55%	17.1
Marvin Jones Jr	DET	71	91	47	8	20%	70	19%	42%	9.5
Curtis Samuel	CAR	50	74.6	29	8	24%	70	25%	53%	9.3
Keenan Allen	LAC	70	94.6	31	8	28%	88	26%	60%	7.7
Chris Godwin	TB	66	94.3	39	7	21%	66	23%	47%	13.9
Danny Amendola	DET	43	55.1	31	7	17%	67	18%	38%	13.1
Julian Edelman	NE	37	57.8	19	7	37%	61	60%	98%	13
Terry McLaurin	WAS	65	92.9	36	7	23%	70	28%	55%	11.1
Cole Beasley	BUF	55	63.2	37	7	16%	48	17%	35%	9.8
AJ Brown	TEN	66	81.5	39	7	20%	51	19.30%	44%	8.9
Greg Ward	PHI	30	44.1	25	7		36			8.1
DeSean Jackson	PHI	37	54.4	30	7					6.6
Preston Williams	MIA	56	90.3	33	7	23%	104	41%	64%	6.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	55	85.9	36	6	19%	31	14%	39%	24.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	42	53.8	29	6	15%	129	38%	49%	19.6
Anthony Miller	CHI	27	41.5	22	6	17%	109	35%	49%	17.6
Tyreek Hill	KC	59	85.5	30	6					15.6
Marquise Brown	BAL	37	62.7	24	6	24%	114	45%	68%	15.1
Scott Miller	TB	43	61.4		6	18%	56	20%	40%	12.9
Jarvis Landry	CLE	52	71.2	33	6	17%	76	20%	40%	11.1
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	59	81.9	40	6	16%	37	13%	33%	10.9
Adam Humphries	TEN	44	54.3	33	6	18%	42	15.90%	37%	10.7
Sterling Shepard	NYG	53	77.9	42	6	15%	37	15.90%	34%	10.7
N’Keal Harry	NE	51	79.7	19	6	32%	22	22%	63%	6.9
Demarcus Robinson	KC	33	47.8	17	6	19%	42	29%	48%	5
Keelan Cole	JAX	33	66	22	5	25%	31	35%	62%	15.7
Emmanuel Sanders	NO	33	48.5	23	5	17%	24	15%	36%	10.5
Henry Ruggs III	LV	42	66.7	22	5	18%	93	51%	63%	9.6
Michael Gallup	DAL	69	95.8	43	5	14%	76	27%	39%	8
Cooper Kupp	LAR	62	84.9	30	5	18%	19	14%	36%	8
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	65	79.3	41	5	14%	15	8%	26%	7.4
Tyler Boyd	CIN	55	80.9	39	5	14%	35	12%	30%	7.3
Tim Patrick	DEN	50	84.7	28	5	16%	62	20.50%	38%	6.9
Kendrick Bourne	SF	57	91.9	36	5	16%	58	26%	42%	5.4
Breshad Perriman	NYJ	56	100	39	5	15%	37	14%	33%	4.7
Michael Thomas	NO	55	80.9	31	5	17%	45	29%	45%	4.7
Dontrelle Inman	WAS	36	51.4	27	5	17%	70	28%	45%	4.1
Brandin Cooks	HOU	31	52.5	19	5	16%	46	16%	36%	4
John Ross III	CIN	57	83.8		5	14%	62	21%	36%	3.7
Trent Taylor	SF	21	33.9	14	5	16%	33	15%	34%	2.7
Christian Kirk	ARI	63	76.8	45	5	14%	70	37%	46%	1
Allen Lazard	GB	68	87.2	38	4	10%	41	12%	23%	18.2
Willie Snead	BAL	39	66.1	20	4					16.4
Laviska Shenault Jr	JAX	31	62	18	4	20%	36	40%	58%	13.7
DeVante Parker	MIA	23	37.1	12	4	13%	40	16%	31%	8.7
Bisi Johnson	MIN	33	63.5		4					8.6
Mike Evans	TB	65	92.9	39	4	12%	47	17%	29%	7.2
Miles Boykin	BAL	40	67.8	26	4	16%	25	10%	31%	6.7
Jalen Reagor	PHI	40	58.8	30	4	10%	136	26%	33%	6.5
Jakeem Grant	MIA	33	53.2	21	4	13%	28	11%	28%	5.5
Isaiah Ford	MIA	46	74.2	29	4	13%	26	10%	27%	3.3
Chris Hogan	NYJ	51	91.1	37	4	12%	49	19%	31%	1
John Hightower	PHI	27	39.7	19	4	10%	32	6%	19%	0.8
Avg. Wk. 1 WR	NFL	40	59	27	5	17%	59	23%	42%	9

Davante Adams presented his case for being the WR1 for 2020 in week 1. In a similar situation as Michael Thomas in 2019, the Green Bay Packers have a narrow range of options to funnel targets. Adams saw Elite scores in targets (17) and target share (42%). No one else on the Packers saw more than a 15% target share. Look for a monster season to continue.

Mike Williams looked to be Tyrod Taylor‘s new favorite weapon in week 1. He saw a team-leading and Exceptional 31% target share. He also racked up an Elite score for his 147 air yards with an average depth of target downfield 16.3 yards. The catch likelihood drops the further downfield the target is, but the fantasy point reward is higher. Add in the fact that he should be scoring more touchdowns this year than last based on regression and Williams looks like a great pick at his ADP if he remains healthy.

Trade rumors are already swirling about Odell Beckham Jr. It seems no one is happy with his play at the moment. Although Baker Mayfield told reporters that he can’t force the ball to OBJ, the volume he did get should have been more than enough to get him in double-digit fantasy points, instead, it got him 5.2. Cleveland ran 77 plays and threw the ball on 60% of them. Beckham led the team with 10 targets and a 29% target share. The hope is that the volume continues, but the quality of said volume improves. Of the 10 targets, only 4 were deemed catchable according to Pro Football Focus. Look at this as a buy-low window for Beckham as Mayfield settles in or improves as their schedule eases up.

Tight End

Week 1 Tight End Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	RZ TARGETS	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Dallas Goedert	PHI	54	31	9	21%	1	57	11%	40%	9
Logan Thomas	WAS	52	31	8	27%	1	72	29%	60%	8
Hunter Henry	LAC	59	29	8	28%	1	73	22%	57%	8
Darren Waller	LV	56	27	8	29%	1	30	17%	54%	8
Jonnu Smith	TEN	59	27	7	18%	1	13	5%	30%	13.6
Jimmy Graham	CHI	52	31	7	19%	3	-1	0%	29%	7
Jared Cook	NO	44	23	7	23%	1	66	42%	64%	7
Zach Ertz	PHI	58	37	7	17%	1	57	11%	33%	7
Chris Herndon	NYJ	40	22	7		0				7
Evan Engram	NYG	64	43	7	18%	2	33	14%	37%	2.9
Noah Fant	DEN	43	24	6	19%	1	56	19%	41%	19.1
Mark Andrews	BAL	42	26	6	24%	4	63	25%	54%	6
OJ Howard	TB	37	19	6	18%	2	75	27%	45%	6
Travis Kelce	KC	61	30	6	19%	2	14	10%	35%	6
Mike Gesicki	MIA	45	27	5	17%	1	56	22%	41%	5
CJ Uzomah	CIN	49	31	5	14%	1	46	16%	32%	5
George Kittle	SF	61	31	5	16%	1	26	12%	32%	5
TJ Hockenson	DET	50	28	5	12%	1	22	6%	22%	5
Hayden Hurst	ATL	62	45	5	10%	0	38	9%	21%	5
Dalton Schultz	DAL	50	24	4	11%	2	14	5%	20%	4
Jack Doyle	IND	54	33	4	9%	1	43	15%	23%	4
Greg Olsen	SEA	41	22	4	11%	1	19	9%	23%	4
Tyler Higbee	LAR	65	22	4	14%	0	30	21%	36%	4
David Njoku	CLE	17	10	3	9%	1	48	13%	22%	3
Dawson Knox	BUF	56	27	3	7%	1	18	6%	14%	3
Nick Boyle	BAL	39	12	3		0				3
Rob Gronkowski	TB	54	21	3	9%	0	22	8%	19%	3
Kaden Smith	NYG	29	13	2						3.7
Eric Ebron	PIT	40	24	2	7%	0	39	18%	22%	2.8
Anthony Firkser	TEN	32	22	2						2.5
Jordan Akins	HOU	48	32	2	7%	1	24	9%	16%	2
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	29	18	2		0				2
Darren Fells	HOU	25	10	2		0				2
Virgil Green	LAC	24	5	2		0				2
Ryan Izzo	NE	63	16	2	5%	0	17	17%	20%	2
Gerald Everett	LAR	24	8	2	7%	0	16	11%	19%	2
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	32	15	2	8%	0	22	8%	18%	2
Josiah Deguara	GB	24	10	2	5%	0	24	7%	12%	2
Ian Thomas	CAR	44	27	2	6%	0	12	4%	12%	2
Austin Hooper	CLE	56	28	2	6%	0	15	4%	11%	2
Jordan Reed	SF	10	5	2	6%	0	5	2%	11%	2
Harrison Bryant	CLE	31	15	2	6%	0	9	2%	10%	2
Dan Arnold	ARI	45	30	2	5%	0	6	3%	10%	2
Maxx Williams	ARI	43	15	2	5%	0	2	1%	9%	2
Will Dissly	SEA	25	9	2	6%	0	1	1%	9%	2
Vance McDonald	PIT	38	16	2		1				1.3
Jake Butt	DEN	16	7	2		1				1
Nick Vannett	DEN	16	8	2						0.4
Avg. Wk. 1 TE	NFL	32	19	2	11	0	25	10	23	3

Move over Terry McLaurin, there is another weapon on the Football Team offense. If you haven’t heard of Logan Thomas then you haven’t been reading QBList. Check out our Going Deep. Thomas was second in all tight ends in Weighted Opportunity Rate (WOPR) which weights target share and air yard market share. Thomas also was a major target in the red zone which correlates very strongly to PPR fantasy points for tight ends. Dwayne Haskins is looking for the big-bodied tight end when they get in close. Make a claim on Thomas now if you need a tight end.

Speaking of WOPR, Jared Cook led all tight ends in the metric in week 1. While his Week 1 was strong with six targets and 42% of the Saints’ air yards, his greatest opportunities are coming in the upcoming weeks. With the news that Michael Thomas could be missing time, Cook should be able to replicate or even improve upon his target share and red zone looks.

Late round tight end hopeful Blake Jarwin went down with an ACL injury last week and his season is over. The Cowboys utilized Dalton Schultz at tight end for the rest of the night. He saw decent volume with 4 targets, 2 of which were in the red zone. He was only able to bring in 1 of his 4 targets, but he may be a name to watch. According to playerprofiler.com, he has decent agility and draft capital (4th round) out of Stanford in 2019. There are plenty of weapons in Dallas for the offense to function without a pass-catching tight end, but Jarwin was expected to have a decent role that Schultz may be able to at least partially assume.

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com

(Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire | Feature Graphic Designed by James Peterson (Follow @jhp_design714 on Instagram & Twitter)

Opportunity Report: Week 1 Review

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