Opportunity Report: Week 10

Why Volume?

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

Reading the Opportunity Report

Color	What Does It Mean?	Category Name
The player is highlighted in blue	The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position.	I call this the “Elite” category.
The player is highlighted in green	The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position.	I call this the “Exceptional” category.
The player highlighted in yellow	The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position.	I call this the “Above Average” category.

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets) of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Players in the “Getting Louder” section are players that are showing positive volume statistics but did not get a write-up. They are worth a look based on their volume peripherals included in the charts.

Running Back

Week 9: RB Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	IMPLIED TOUCHES	TOUCHES	rATT	GZ rATT	TGT	FPTS
Christian McCaffrey	CAR	59	71.1	28	28	18	1	10	37.1
Chase Edmonds	ARI	66	95.7	28	28	25	0	3	11.8
James Robinson	JAX	50	72.5	27	25	25	1	2	15.9
Dalvin Cook	MIN	38	65.5	24	24	22	3	2	39.2
Todd Gurley II	ATL	44	62	21	21	19	1	2	13.5
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	47	65.3	21	20	18	0	3	8.9
Derrick Henry	TEN	29	52.7	21	21	21	0	0	6.8
Duke Johnson	HOU	52	81.2	20	20	16	1	4	15.3
Aaron Jones	GB	40	60.6	20	20	15	0	5	12.9
Kalen Ballage	LAC	31	39.2	18	17	15	1	3	16.4
D’Andre Swift	DET	30	40	18	16	13	0	5	12.7
David Montgomery	CHI	50	64.9	17	17	14	1	3	5.2
J.D. McKissic	WAS	45	83.3	17	12	3	0	14	17.2
Jerick McKinnon	SF	42	73.7	16	15	12	1	4	15.8
Wayne Gallman	NYG	44	57.1	16	15	14	1	2	14.7
Alvin Kamara	NO	37	50.7	15	14	9	1	6	15.9
Rex Burkhead	NE	34	42	15	15	12	1	3	15.7
Josh Jacobs	LV	28	56	15	15	14	1	1	13.8
Joshua Kelley	LAC	43	54.4	14	14	9	0	5	10.9
J.K. Dobbins	BAL	36	56.2	14	14	12	0	2	5.5
Frank Gore	NYJ	23	50	14	14	12	0	2	7.9
Damien Harris	NE	28	34.6	14	14	14	0	0	7.1
Gus Edwards	BAL	24	37.5	13	13	11	4	2	9.4
Tyler Ervin	GB	22	33.3	13	12	8	1	5	11.2
Adrian Peterson	DET	20	26.7	13	11	8	1	5	7.3
Jordan Wilkins	IND	23	33.8	13	13	11	0	2	5.8
Latavius Murray	NO	29	39.7	12	12	10	0	2	6.2
Alexander Mattison	MIN	16	27.6	12	12	12	0	0	6.9
Zack Moss	BUF	38	55.9	11	11	9	1	2	12.8
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	28	38.4	11	8	8	0	3	2.3
James Conner	PIT	32	46.4	11	11	9	0	2	4
Tony Pollard	DAL	23	31.9	11	10	9	0	2	6.8
Jordan Howard	MIA	21	34.4	10	10	10	1	0	7.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	25	40.3	10	8	5	0	5	12.4
Alfred Morris	NYG	16	20.8	10	10	9	0	1	8.1
DeeJay Dallas	SEA	20	30.8	9	9	7	2	2	11.9
Travis Homer	SEA	31	47.7	9	9	6	1	3	11
Antonio Gibson	WAS	25	46.3	9	9	6	1	3	12.5
Brian Hill	ATL	19	26.8	9	8	8	0	1	2.4
Jonathan Taylor	IND	21	30.9	8	8	6	1	2	9.4
La’Mical Perine	NYJ	21	45.7	8	8	6	0	2	5.8
Devontae Booker	LV	13	26	8	8	8	0	0	12.8
Ronald Jones II	TB	16	32	7	6	3	1	4	4.8
Leonard Fournette	TB	33	66	7	7	1	0	6	10.1
Mike Davis	CAR	26	31.3	7	6	1	0	6	8.7
James White	NE	21	25.9	7	6	2	0	5	6.4
Kerryon Johnson	DET	25	33.3	7	7	4	0	3	9.5
Melvin Gordon III	DEN	44	60.3	7	7	6	0	1	3.7
Salvon Ahmed	MIA	28	45.9	7	7	7	0	0	3.8
JaMycal Hasty	SF	15	26.3	6	6	4	0	2	3.3
Week 9 RB AVG	NFL	26	39.6	10	9	7	0	2	8.2

Week 9 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Zack Moss (12.8), JaMycal Hasty (3.3)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 9 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 8.2 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 9.

In Week 9, Duke Johnson had his first RB1 performance since Week 13 of 2019. David Johnson went out with a concussion which allowed the Duke to handle the majority of the Texans’ workload. Johnson had 20 opportunities on the day with 16 attempts and four targets. He was even able to collect the most coveted green zone attempt which resulted in a touchdown from the 1-yard line. Duke has always had his supporters in the fantasy community, but he has had few opportunities to take over a backfield. With David Johnson looking like he will be missing another week in concussion protocol, Duke may just have another chance at 20+ opportunities as Houston takes on Cleveland. I’ll be starting him in my RB2 and/or Flex spots this week.

Many speculated, including me in last week’s Opportunity Report, that JaMycal Hasty would be the back to take over in San Francisco and Jerick McKinnon would be the third-down back. That proved to be wrong as McKinnon dominated in snaps over Hasty, 42-15. McKinnon was a key player in both the passing and rushing game as he saw a total of 16 opportunities (14 attempts+4 targets). This included an attempt within the green zone that he converted into a touchdown. With McKinnon getting targets and green zone work, he continues to be the back to own in the 49ers backfield. We won’t need to check back in until Raheem Mostert rejoins the team after their bye.

Other Week 9 Opportunity Standouts: Dalvin Cook, DeeJay Dallas, Christain McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Gus Edwards, Tyler Ervin, Adrian Peterson

Wide Receiver

WEEK 9: WR VOLUME LEADERS

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Tyreek Hill	KC	59	95.2	44	18	0.41	223	0.66	1.07	33.1
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	61	83.6	49	14	0.31	193	0.44	0.77	25.5
Jakobi Meyers	NE	80	98.8	36	14	0.41	185	0.67	1.09	28.9
Richie James Jr.	SF	51	89.5	36	13	0.39	120	0.54	0.97	33.4
Robby Anderson	CAR	69	83.1	50	13	0.3	107	0.41	0.73	15.3
Chase Claypool	PIT	56	81.2	40	13	0.29	129	0.39	0.71	15.3
Davante Adams	GB	50	75.8	30	12	0.4	157	0.7	1.09	33.3
DJ Chark Jr.	JAX	59	85.5	39	12	0.32	172	0.53	0.85	27.6
Stefon Diggs	BUF	60	88.2	47	12	0.32	131	0.38	0.74	20.8
John Brown	BUF	53	77.9	45	11	0.29	89	0.26	0.62	17.9
Darnell Mooney	CHI	67	87	49	11	0.23	117	0.36	0.6	9.3
Keenan Allen	LAC	78	98.7	46	11	0.27	65	0.21	0.55	25.3
Danny Amendola	DET	48	64	32	10	0.23	46	0.17	0.46	14.9
K.J. Hamler	DEN	55	75.3	41	10	0.22	102	0.23	0.5	15
Diontae Johnson	PIT	59	85.5	44	10	0.22	69	0.21	0.48	14.1
Curtis Samuel	CAR	60	72.3	39	9	0.2	60	0.23	0.47	26.8
DK Metcalf	SEA	65	100	45	9	0.22	114	0.3	0.55	23.8
Tim Patrick	DEN	60	82.2	46	9	0.2	96	0.22	0.45	12.9
Allen Robinson II	CHI	73	94.8	55	9	0.19	77	0.24	0.45	15.1
Damiere Byrd	NE	80	98.8	36	9	0.26	106	0.39	0.67	11.5
Brandin Cooks	HOU	58	90.6	39	9	0.3	117	0.44	0.76	17.3
A.J. Brown	TEN	45	81.8	20	9	0.43	122	0.57	1.04	20.1
Anthony Miller	CHI	53	68.8	39	8	0.17	65	0.2	0.39	8.9
Terry McLaurin	WAS	53	98.1	40	8	0.21	60	0.41	0.59	24.5
Sterling Shepard	NYG	60	77.9	33	8	0.24	27	0.15	0.47	11.7
Chris Conley	JAX	49	71	29	8	0.21	43	0.13	0.41	12.2
Denzel Mims	NYJ	44	95.7	26	8	0.33	145	0.46	0.82	10.2
Christian Kirk	ARI	44	63.8	24	8	0.31	104	0.42	0.75	23.3
Mike Williams	LAC	73	92.4	41	7	0.17	80	0.26	0.44	13.1
Breshad Perriman	NYJ	45	97.8	26	7	0.29	114	0.36	0.69	27.1
Tyler Lockett	SEA	62	95.4	45	7	0.18	83	0.22	0.42	8
Michael Gallup	DAL	68	94.4	41	7	0.19	77	0.22	0.44	6.6
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	38	52.8	28	7	0.19	130	0.37	0.55	15.1
Marcus Johnson	IND	60	88.2	38	7	0.18	105	0.38	0.52	3.4
Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	59	86.8	37	7	0.18	108	0.39	0.53	9.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	63	91.3	46	7	0.16	50	0.15	0.34	21.3
Julio Jones	ATL	63	88.7	35	7	0.2	59	0.17	0.42	16.4
DeVante Parker	MIA	55	90.2	33	7	0.27	74	0.32	0.63	12.4
Mike Evans	TB	43	86	38	6	0.16	55	0.15	0.35	10.4
David Moore	SEA	34	52.3	24	6	0.15	77	0.2	0.37	17.1
Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	52	73.2	30	6	0.17	145	0.41	0.55	20.3
Russell Gage	ATL	39	54.9	27	6	0.17	74	0.21	0.41	3.1
Michael Thomas	NO	40	54.8	28	6	0.18	47	0.26	0.45	10.1
Zach Pascal	IND	41	60.3	29	6	0.15	29	0.1	0.3	10.5
Chris Godwin	TB	47	94	40	6	0.16	90	0.25	0.42	7.1
Amari Cooper	DAL	59	81.9	37	6	0.16	58	0.17	0.36	12.5
Jakeem Grant Sr.	MIA	29	47.5	19	5	0.19	20	0.09	0.35	7.5
River Cracraft	SF	51	89.5	34	5	0.12	41	0.18	0.31	3.3
Gabriel Davis	BUF	32	47.1	19	5	0.13	54	0.16	0.31	17
Adam Thielen	MIN	50	86.2	21	5	0.25	84	0.4	0.65	5.8
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	51	73.9	27	5	0.19	55	0.22	0.44	9.4
Austin Mack	NYG	38	49.4	16	5	0.15	49	0.27	0.42	11.2
Preston Williams	MIA	17	27.9	8	5	0.19	79	0.34	0.53	16
Emmanuel Sanders	NO	22	30.1	14	5	0.15	34	0.19	0.35	13.8
Marvin Hall	DET	53	70.7	36	5	0.11	79	0.29	0.37	5.8
Antonio Brown	TB	39	78	33	5	0.14	99	0.27	0.39	6.1
Will Fuller V	HOU	56	87.5	38	5	0.17	35	0.13	0.34	21
Marquise Brown	BAL	55	85.9	28	5	0.22	45	0.52	0.69	6.8
Marvin Jones Jr.	DET	71	94.7	48	4	0.09	31	0.11	0.22	13.3
DeMichael Harris	IND	16	23.5		4	0.1	0	0	0.15	9.5
Willie Snead IV	BAL	34	53.1	16	4	0.17	19	0.22	0.42	7.7
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	59	89.4	31	4	0.13	55	0.25	0.37	19.3
Trent Taylor	SF	33	57.9	23	4	0.12	26	0.12	0.26	1.9
Mecole Hardman	KC	42	67.7	32	4	0.09	44	0.13	0.23	7.8
Cam Sims	WAS	40	74.1	28	4	0.1	53	0.36	0.41	14
Justin Jefferson	MIN	35	60.3	19	4	0.2	88	0.42	0.59	9.4
Justin Jefferson	MIN	35	60.3	19	4	0.2	88	0.42	0.59	9.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	CHI	17	22.1	12	4	0.09	7	0.02	0.14	8
Week 9 AVG WR	NFL	39	58.8	25	5	0.13	51	0.18	0.33	8.5

Week 9 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Brandon Aiyuk (DNP), Marvin Jones (13.3)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 9 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 8.5 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 9.

John Brown has been on and off the injury report this season, but when given opportunities he has been a solid WR2 in fantasy this year. With Josh Allen currently as the QB3 in passing yards, Brown and Stefon Diggs are feasting when Allen can sling the ball around. In Week 9, Brown saw just his second double-digit target game this season, the first came all the way back in Week 1. Buffalo wants to throw the ball as shown by their 58% passing play percentage in neutral game scripts. That is tied for 6th in football. Brown, when healthy, should continue his WR2 status but he does have a tough final stretch for matchups. Start him, especially if the Bills project to be in a negative game script.

Coming into the 2020 season, we did not know what to make of Mike Williams. The oft-injured receiver had flashed in his first two years in the league. He’s shown a propensity to go get the jump ball and has been on both ends of touchdown luck. In his rookie season, he scored an absurd 10 touchdowns with just 664 yards receiving. Last season he scored just two touchdowns with over 1000 yards receiving. If anything, he was due some touchdown regression in 2020. He also gained some quarterback luck with the emergence of Justin Herbert. Herbert has been a revelation in his rookie campaign and while Keenan Allen has been the man his the 30% target share, Williams has benefited with plays down the field. Williams has been targeted 15 times by passes 20 yards or more downfield. That ties him for 4th in the league. Herbert is completing 45.9% of his deep balls. Williams is 13th in the last 3 weeks in air yards and it’s only a matter of time before his connection with Herbert grows stronger.

Other Week 9 Opportunity Standouts: Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darnell Mooney, River Cracraft, Gabriel Davis, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Demarcus Robinson

Tight End

WEEK 9: TE VOLUME LEADERS

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	RZ TARGETS	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Travis Kelce	KC	57	91.9	40	12	0.27	1	63	0.19	0.54	25.9
Darren Waller	LV	44	88	23	10	0.43	3	76	0.27	0.84	13.2
Evan Engram	NYG	58	75.3	30	10	0.3	1	61	0.34	0.69	15.8
T.J. Hockenson	DET	57	76	32	8	0.18	2	60	0.22	0.43	14.9
Hayden Hurst	ATL	51	71.8	30	8	0.23	1	40	0.11	0.42	13.2
Jacob Hollister	SEA	31	47.7	16	7	0.18	2	42	0.11	0.34	11
Hunter Henry	LAC	78	98.7	41	7	0.17	1	56	0.18	0.38	7.3
Dalton Schultz	DAL	69	95.8	39	7	0.19	0	60	0.17	0.4	8.8
Rob Gronkowski	TB	27	54	19	6	0.16	1	63	0.17	0.36	1.2
Eric Ebron	PIT	59	85.5	41	6	0.13	1	30	0.09	0.26	11.2
Jimmy Graham	CHI	50	64.9	37	6	0.13	1	14	0.04	0.22	17.5
Logan Thomas	WAS	54	100	39	6	0.15	0	36	0.24	0.4	5.8
Anthony Firkser	TEN	27	49.1	15	6	0.29	0	20	0.09	0.49	4.9
Mark Andrews	BAL	38	59.4	16	5	0.22	1	18	0.21	0.47	5.2
Tyler Eifert	JAX	38	55.1	20	5	0.13	0	24	0.07	0.25	8.8
Irv Smith Jr.	MIN	22	37.9	9	4	0.2	2	17	0.08	0.36	15
Trey Burton	IND	29	42.6	23	4	0.1	1	37	0.13	0.24	1.6
Jordan Akins	HOU	22	34.4	16	4	0.13	1	41	0.15	0.31	3.9
Mike Gesicki	MIA	43	70.5	27	4	0.15	0	39	0.17	0.35	7.2
Nick Boyle	BAL	50	78.1	18	4	0.17	0	17	0.2	0.4	8.6
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	42	72.4	13	4	0.2	0	25	0.12	0.38	7
Donald Parham Jr.	LAC	9	11.4	7	3	0.07	3	24	0.08	0.16	0
Jared Cook	NO	26	35.6	20	3	0.09	2	31	0.17	0.25	3
Greg Olsen	SEA	26	40	21	3	0.08	2	19	0.05	0.15	3.3
Adam Trautman	NO	29	39.7	11	3	0.09	1	14	0.08	0.19	12.9
Noah Fant	DEN	57	78.1	36	3	0.07	0	5	0.01	0.11	7.5
Ross Dwelley	SF	42	73.7	24	3	0.09	0	28	0.12	0.22	8.2
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	35	51.5	16	3	0.08	0	33	0.12	0.2	7.3
Darren Fells	HOU	33	51.6	13	3	0.1	0	16	0.06	0.19	4.6
Week 9 AVG TE	NFL	35	53.1	17	3	0.11	1	22	0.09	0.22	6.1

Week 9 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Trey Burton (1.6), Evan Engram (15.8)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 9 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 5.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 9.

Another big-bodied target for Justin Herbert to throw to has been Donal Parham Jr. an undrafted rookie out of Stenson. Parham has some impressive metrics coming out of college including a 99th percentile dominator rating and 95th percentile breakout age. He also scored above the 90th percentile in Burst Score and Catch Radius according to playerprofiler.com. Week 9 looked relatively uneventful for Parham on the surface. He played just 9 snaps and ran 7 routes. However, within those seven routes, he earned three targets, all of which were in their opponent’s red zone. Parham did not score any fantasy points last week, but tight end targets within the red zone have a very strong correlation to PPR fantasy points. With his talent and the growth of the Charger passing game, Parham may just be a sleeper tight end to consider in the weeks or even seasons ahead.

Other Week 8 Opportunity Standouts: Darren Waller, Donald Parham Jr., TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith Jr., Rob Gronkowski, Jonnu Smith, Josh Hill, Tyler Kroft, Marcedes Lewis, Adam Shaheen, Maxx Williams

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire| Feature Graphic Designed by James Peterson (Follow @jhp_design714 on Instagram & Twitter)

Opportunity Report: Week 10

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