Opportunity Report: Week 10

Kenny Hyttenhove looks at which players are getting the most opportunities to score fantasy points. Who should you fade, and who is of interest based on usage?

Why Volume?

 

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

 

Reading the Opportunity Report

 

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets)  of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Players in the “Getting Louder” section are players that are showing positive volume statistics but did not get a write-up. They are worth a look based on their volume peripherals included in the charts.

 

Running Back

 

Week 9: RB Volume Leaders

 

Week 9 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Zack Moss (12.8), JaMycal Hasty (3.3)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 9 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 8.2 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 9.

 

  • In Week 9, Duke Johnson had his first RB1 performance since Week 13 of 2019. David Johnson went out with a concussion which allowed the Duke to handle the majority of the Texans’ workload. Johnson had 20 opportunities on the day with 16 attempts and four targets. He was even able to collect the most coveted green zone attempt which resulted in a touchdown from the 1-yard line. Duke has always had his supporters in the fantasy community, but he has had few opportunities to take over a backfield. With David Johnson looking like he will be missing another week in concussion protocol, Duke may just have another chance at 20+ opportunities as Houston takes on Cleveland. I’ll be starting him in my RB2 and/or Flex spots this week.

 

  • Many speculated, including me in last week’s Opportunity Report, that JaMycal Hasty would be the back to take over in San Francisco and Jerick McKinnon would be the third-down back. That proved to be wrong as McKinnon dominated in snaps over Hasty, 42-15. McKinnon was a key player in both the passing and rushing game as he saw a total of 16 opportunities (14 attempts+4 targets). This included an attempt within the green zone that he converted into a touchdown. With McKinnon getting targets and green zone work, he continues to be the back to own in the 49ers backfield. We won’t need to check back in until Raheem Mostert rejoins the team after their bye.

 

Other Week 9 Opportunity Standouts: Dalvin Cook, DeeJay Dallas, Christain McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Gus Edwards, Tyler Ervin, Adrian Peterson

 

Wide Receiver

WEEK 9: WR VOLUME LEADERS

 

Week 9 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Brandon Aiyuk (DNP), Marvin Jones (13.3)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 9 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 8.5 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 9.

 

  • John Brown has been on and off the injury report this season, but when given opportunities he has been a solid WR2 in fantasy this year. With Josh Allen currently as the QB3 in passing yards, Brown and Stefon Diggs are feasting when Allen can sling the ball around. In Week 9, Brown saw just his second double-digit target game this season, the first came all the way back in Week 1. Buffalo wants to throw the ball as shown by their 58% passing play percentage in neutral game scripts. That is tied for 6th in football. Brown, when healthy, should continue his WR2 status but he does have a tough final stretch for matchups. Start him, especially if the Bills project to be in a negative game script.

 

  • Coming into the 2020 season, we did not know what to make of Mike Williams. The oft-injured receiver had flashed in his first two years in the league. He’s shown a propensity to go get the jump ball and has been on both ends of touchdown luck. In his rookie season, he scored an absurd 10 touchdowns with just 664 yards receiving. Last season he scored just two touchdowns with over 1000 yards receiving. If anything, he was due some touchdown regression in 2020. He also gained some quarterback luck with the emergence of Justin Herbert. Herbert has been a revelation in his rookie campaign and while Keenan Allen has been the man his the 30% target share, Williams has benefited with plays down the field. Williams has been targeted 15 times by passes 20 yards or more downfield. That ties him for 4th in the league. Herbert is completing 45.9% of his deep balls. Williams is 13th in the last 3 weeks in air yards and it’s only a matter of time before his connection with Herbert grows stronger.

 

Other Week 9 Opportunity Standouts: Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darnell Mooney, River Cracraft, Gabriel Davis, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Demarcus Robinson

 

Tight End

WEEK 9: TE VOLUME LEADERS

 

Week 9 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Trey Burton (1.6), Evan Engram (15.8)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 9 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 5.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 9.

 

  • Another big-bodied target for Justin Herbert to throw to has been Donal Parham Jr. an undrafted rookie out of Stenson. Parham has some impressive metrics coming out of college including a 99th percentile dominator rating and 95th percentile breakout age. He also scored above the 90th percentile in Burst Score and Catch Radius according to playerprofiler.com. Week 9 looked relatively uneventful for Parham on the surface. He played just 9 snaps and ran 7 routes. However, within those seven routes, he earned three targets, all of which were in their opponent’s red zone. Parham did not score any fantasy points last week, but tight end targets within the red zone have a very strong correlation to PPR fantasy points. With his talent and the growth of the Charger passing game, Parham may just be a sleeper tight end to consider in the weeks or even seasons ahead.

 

Other Week 8 Opportunity Standouts: Darren Waller, Donald Parham Jr., TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith Jr., Rob Gronkowski, Jonnu Smith, Josh Hill, Tyler Kroft, Marcedes Lewis, Adam Shaheen, Maxx Williams

 

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

 

Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire| Feature Graphic Designed by James Peterson (Follow @jhp_design714 on Instagram & Twitter)

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