Opportunity Report: Week 11

Kenny Hyttenhove looks at which players are getting the most opportunities to score fantasy points. Who should you fade, and who is of interest based on usage?

Why Volume?

 

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

 

Reading the Opportunity Report

 

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets)  of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

 

Running Back

 

Week 10: RB Volume Leaders

 

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Duke Johnson (5.4), Jerrick McKinnon (5.6)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 10 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 8.2 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 10.

 

  • As an Antonio Gibson truther, I think it’s time we address the elephant in the room, J.D. McKissic. McKissic was once a nuisance to Gibson’s managers as they split work. However, now that Alex Smith has taken over in Washington, McKissic is getting targeted like he is the team’s WR1. In the three games with Smith at QB, McKissic has averaged 12 targets and 15 PPR points per game. That’s compared to his four targets and 8 PPR points per game in the six games without Smith. Whether you are a Gibson manager or not, McKissic needs to be owned and in your lineups as long as Smith remains the Football Team’s quarterback.

 

  • With Joe Mixon out with an injury since Week 7, Giovani Bernard has been the bell cow back in Cincinnati. In the Bengals’ three games since Mixon has been out, Bernard has had two RB1 performances of 20+ PPR points and a lackluster RB3 performance against Pittsburgh last week. Although he was unable to capitalize, his opportunities were there in Week 10. Bernard was targeted, an exceptional rating (+2 standard deviations), seven times. Unfortunately, Bernard was unable to score so his fantasy production hovered around average for the position. He did not see any attempts within the green zone. Bernard should maintain similar volume as long as Mixon remains out (he did not practice this week) and you can expect a better fantasy point return against the Washington defense.

 

Other Week 10 Opportunity Standouts: Alvin Kamara, Kalen Ballage, Aaron Jones, Nyheim Hines, James Robinson, Miles Sanders, D’Andre Swift, Devin Singletary, Mike Davis, Rex Burkhead

 

Wide Receiver

 

Week 10: WR Volume Leaders

 

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): John Brown (13.2), Mike Williams (5.8)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 10 Hit Rate: 50% scored above 8.7 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 10.

 

  • Another week down and another week that Brandon Aiyuk pops off the Opportunity Report charts. Aiyuk, the versatile receiver from Arizona State, has been featured in this report before. In Week 10, Aiyuk was targeted a season-high 14 times, including one red-zone target and another target in the green zone which he converted into a touchdown. This is the second game in a row that Aiyuk has commanded double-digit targets in the 49ers’ offense. As San Francisco enters their bye week it is expected that Deebo Samuel should return in Week 12. Thus far when comparing Aiyuk’s splits with and without Samuel in the lineup, he has been much more productive. He averages four more targets ( 9 v. 5) and five more PPR points per game without Deebo. Even with Samuel returning, Aiyuk should be a WR3 with upside, especially if we don’t see a step back in his volume.

 

  • Last week I talked up John Brown as a receiver to watch after his good outing against the Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 9. Brown saw decent volume and put up WR3 numbers against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10, but Cole Beasley had the best opportunity numbers in football last week. The 13 targets Beasley earned certainly helped. That was a season-high number of targets which helped him net his second WR1 and 20+ PPR point week. Beasley has been relatively consistent this season. Maybe surprising to some, he is the WR2 in that Buffalo offense, not John Brown. He’s only owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues and maybe a solid plug-in and play going forward.

 

Other Week 10 Opportunity Standouts: Davante Adams, Dionte Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Josh Reynolds, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones, Justin Jefferson, K.J. Hamler

 

Tight End

Week 10: TE Volume Leaders

 

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Donald Parham Jr. (2.3)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 10 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 5.1 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 10.

 

  • The tight end position has been relatively ugly this season. There are the haves and the have-nots and they do not typically switch designations. Logan Thomas has been a player that we have had our eye on all season here at QB List. Thomas has unreal physical traits and athletic measurables. Since Week 7, when Alex Smith took over for the injured Kyle Allen, Thomas has started to see a very slight increase in targets. Last week against Detroit, Thomas saw a red zone target as well, which is highly correlated to PPR fantasy points. This is;t to say run out a grab Thomas in all leagues, but he may be someone to monitor, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues.

 

Other Week 10 Opportunity Standouts: Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, Tyler Higbee, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Jordan Reed, Darren Waller

 

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

 

Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire| Feature Graphic Designed by James Peterson (Follow @jhp_design714 on Instagram & Twitter)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.