Opportunity Report: Week 12

Why Volume?

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

Reading the Opportunity Report

Color	What Does It Mean?	Category Name
The player is highlighted in blue	The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position.	I call this the “Elite” category.
The player is highlighted in green	The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position.	I call this the “Exceptional” category.
The player highlighted in yellow	The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position.	I call this the “Above Average” category.

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets) of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Running Back

Week 11: RB Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	IMPLIED TOUCHES	TOUCHES	rATT	GZ rATT	TGT	FPTS
Dalvin Cook	MIN	52	81.2	32	32	27	4	5	25
Derrick Henry	TEN	55	78.6	30	29	28	0	2	20.2
Jonathan Taylor	IND	47	56	26	26	22	0	4	15.4
Kalen Ballage	LAC	55	67.1	25	23	16	1	9	14.1
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	46	69.7	23	23	21	2	2	19.4
Miles Sanders	PHI	41	60.3	21	19	16	1	5	9.1
Mike Davis	CAR	52	73.2	21	21	19	1	2	15.9
Nick Chubb	CLE	30	44.8	20	20	20	0	0	11.4
James Robinson	JAX	41	70.7	19	19	17	0	2	11.4
Salvon Ahmed	MIA	43	66.2	18	17	12	1	6	12.4
Antonio Gibson	WAS	33	53.2	18	17	16	2	2	17.4
Josh Jacobs	LV	44	74.6	18	18	17	4	1	13.4
Carlos Hyde	SEA	46	69.7	17	16	14	1	3	17.5
J.K. Dobbins	BAL	41	63.1	17	17	15	1	2	18.5
Frank Gore	NYJ	35	58.3	17	17	15	2	2	15.1
Kenyan Drake	ARI	33	49.3	16	15	11	2	5	16
James Conner	PIT	52	69.3	16	16	13	0	3	12.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	40	51.3	16	15	14	1	2	20.7
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	27	41.5	16	16	16	0	0	8.2
Duke Johnson	HOU	47	77	15	13	10	0	5	6.5
Melvin Gordon III	DEN	34	52.3	15	15	15	1	0	18.4
James White	NE	39	56.5	14	11	5	0	9	14.3
Giovani Bernard	CIN	37	54.4	14	13	9	2	5	9.5
Aaron Jones	GB	30	50	14	14	10	1	4	17.1
Latavius Murray	NO	33	50	14	14	12	0	2	10.5
Kareem Hunt	CLE	36	53.7	14	14	13	4	1	9.1
Alvin Kamara	NO	32	48.5	14	13	13	2	1	10.5
Damien Harris	NE	26	37.7	13	12	11	0	2	12.4
Kerryon Johnson	DET	39	69.6	11	8	6	0	5	5.8
Leonard Fournette	TB	36	52.2	11	8	7	1	4	9.6
Darrell Henderson Jr.	LAR	33	45.8	11	10	8	1	3	2.9
Ronald Jones II	TB	25	36.2	11	10	10	0	1	2.4
J.D. McKissic	WAS	32	51.6	10	9	6	0	4	9.9
Nyheim Hines	IND	28	33.3	10	9	6	0	4	8.3
Todd Gurley II	ATL	23	37.1	10	9	8	0	2	3.9
La’Mical Perine	NYJ	11	18.3	9	8	8	1	1	9.3
Boston Scott	PHI	27	39.7	8	8	5	0	3	8
Le’Veon Bell	KC	20	25.6	8	8	7	0	1	10.6
Adrian Peterson	DET	17	30.4	8	7	7	0	1	1.8
Peyton Barber	WAS	14	22.6	8	8	8	0	0	2.8
Rodney Smith	CAR	9	12.7	8	8	8	0	0	2.9
Rex Burkhead	NE	12	17.4	7	6	4	0	3	3.2
Samaje Perine	CIN	31	45.6	7	6	5	1	2	3.1
Jamaal Williams	GB	30	50	7	6	5	0	2	8.6
Benny Snell Jr.	PIT	10	13.3	7	7	7	1	0	7.5
Ty Johnson	NYJ	14	23.3	6	4	0	0	6	5.7
Chase Edmonds	ARI	36	53.7	6	6	2	0	4	14.9
Joshua Kelley	LAC	11	13.4	6	6	4	0	2	2.2
Devontae Booker	LV	15	25.4	6	6	5	0	1	2.9
Cam Akers	LAR	12	16.7	6	6	5	0	1	8.9
Bo Scarbrough	SEA	12	18.2	6	6	6	0	0	3.1
Week 11 AVG RB	NFL	26	39	10.2	9.6	8	1	2	7.9

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): J.D. McKissic (9.9), Giovani Bernard (9.5)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 11 Hit Rate: 100% scored above 7.9 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 11.

Although James White has only put up one RB1 week in PPR format, he’s been consistent when getting opportunities. When he gets double-digit opportunities (rushes + targets), White has the floor to be an RB2 with an RB1 ceiling. White is 2nd in RB target share, with 19% of his team targets, and ranks 6th in the league with 9.9 yards after the catch per reception. White has performed well in fantasy seeing as he has yet to find the end zone. White has only seen two attempts and three targets within the red zone in 2020. With the season-ending injury to Rex Burkhead, look for the Patriots to lean on White’s sure hands as they get in closer to the end zone. Burkhead was the Patriots’ top-performing back in the red zone and those opportunities need to be redistributed. Look for White to benefit.

Back and forth, it’s like the weather. Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. Drake started the season as the back to own, but then Edmonds looked to be the better back this season and took over the opportunities. Now it seems as though we have shifted back to Drake. In Week 11, Drake had his best week since Week 6 as he finished as an RB1. Drake was still inefficient in the run game but was able to save his day with a touchdown. For the first time all season, Drake also out-targeted Edmonds, 5-4. Edmonds scored on one of his targets within the green zone. That green zone touch was one of only two opportunities Edmonds saw within the red zone in Week 11. Drake saw four opportunities. Drake’s use in the red zone has been consistently been better than Edmonds, especially in the green zone. Drake’s biggest problem isn’t Edmonds, but Kyler Murray. Murray has seven rush attempts this season within the five-yard line and has scored five touchdowns. This has capped Drake’s ceiling because he’s the least efficient back between him and Edmonds. Drake needs those green zone touches to score touchdowns to cover for his inefficiency on the other parts of the field. Since the touchdowns aren’t coming and Murray is currently on an MVP pace, I would stash or cut Drake loose.

Other Week 11 Opportunity Standouts: Kalen Ballage, Salvon Ahmed, Ty Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Duke Johnson, Miles Sanders, Kerryon Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette

Wide Receiver

Week 11: WR Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Keenan Allen	LAC	78	95.1	51	19	0.4	73	0.22	0.75	34.5
Diontae Johnson	PIT	60	80	45	16	0.35	106	0.29	0.73	23.1
Robert Woods	LAR	68	94.4	49	15	0.31	74	0.28	0.65	30.6
Tyreek Hill	KC	72	92.3	47	14	0.32	99	0.29	0.68	27
Antonio Brown	TB	43	62.3	34	13	0.28	125	0.3	0.62	13.8
Cooper Kupp	LAR	52	72.2	42	13	0.27	66	0.25	0.57	25.5
Russell Gage	ATL	49	79	37	12	0.35	61	0.23	0.69	12.8
Michael Thomas	NO	57	86.4	30	12	0.52	103	0.75	1.31	19.4
Tyler Boyd	CIN	56	82.4	42	11	0.25	84	0.2	0.51	17.5
D.J. Moore	CAR	61	85.9	32	11	0.31	130	0.55	0.86	21.8
Adam Thielen	MIN	57	89.1	30	11	0.39	128	0.49	0.93	32.3
Tee Higgins	CIN	62	91.2	46	10	0.23	178	0.42	0.64	5.6
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	55	82.1	40	10	0.26	43	0.15	0.49	14.2
Chris Godwin	TB	68	98.6	49	10	0.21	69	0.16	0.43	18.3
Curtis Samuel	CAR	48	67.6	31	10	0.29	63	0.27	0.62	21.4
Calvin Ridley	ATL	51	82.3	41	9	0.26	127	0.47	0.73	14
Robby Anderson	CAR	50	70.4	31	9	0.26	29	0.12	0.47	11.6
Tyler Lockett	SEA	49	74.2	35	9	0.33	46	0.24	0.67	21.7
DeVante Parker	MIA	63	96.9	43	9	0.24	79	0.26	0.55	18.1
A.J. Green	CIN	54	79.4	41	9	0.2	98	0.23	0.47	14.1
Mike Evans	TB	61	88.4	45	9	0.19	127	0.3	0.5	15.9
Nelson Agholor	LV	44	74.6	25	9	0.31	141	0.59	0.88	20.8
Denzel Mims	NYJ	54	90	27	8	0.29	180	0.47	0.75	10.1
Will Fuller V	HOU	60	98.4	42	8	0.22	88	0.28	0.52	14
Chase Claypool	PIT	47	62.7	32	8	0.17	140	0.38	0.53	15.9
DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	61	91	45	8	0.21	65	0.23	0.47	10.1
Tim Patrick	DEN	54	83.1	25	8	0.27	122	0.37	0.66	16.9
DJ Chark Jr.	JAX	50	86.2	33	8	0.24	90	0.27	0.55	8.1
N’Keal Harry	NE	52	75.4	35	8	0.21	34	0.15	0.42	9.1
Demarcus Robinson	KC	63	80.8	42	8	0.18	69	0.2	0.41	10.4
Davante Adams	GB	57	95	39	8	0.24	78	0.26	0.55	23.6
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	41	63.1	24	8	0.27	132	0.4	0.68	6.7
Mike Williams	LAC	68	82.9	43	7	0.15	122	0.37	0.48	17.2
Damiere Byrd	NE	62	89.9	39	7	0.18	125	0.55	0.66	26.3
Travis Fulgham	PHI	65	95.6	39	7	0.21	69	0.34	0.55	1.8
Corey Davis	TEN	52	74.3	30	7	0.22	111	0.56	0.72	16.3
Amari Cooper	DAL	54	81.8	29	7	0.23	65	0.32	0.57	14.1
Terry McLaurin	WAS	57	91.9	27	7	0.29	101	0.71	0.93	13.4
A.J. Brown	TEN	57	81.4	33	7	0.22	55	0.28	0.52	16.2
Willie Snead IV	BAL	48	73.8	27	7	0.25	55	0.19	0.51	5.3
Christian Kirk	ARI	61	91	46	6	0.15	77	0.27	0.42	9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	51	85	36	6	0.18	114	0.38	0.54	6.5
Marvin Jones Jr.	DET	50	89.3	36	6	0.19	66	0.34	0.52	9.1
Josh Reynolds	LAR	65	90.3	48	6	0.12	85	0.32	0.41	6.2
Jakeem Grant Sr.	MIA	55	84.6	40	6	0.16	121	0.4	0.52	3.5
K.J. Hamler	DEN	38	58.5	20	6	0.2	48	0.15	0.4	7.5
Jamal Agnew	DET	28	50	21	6	0.19	57	0.29	0.49	4
T.Y. Hilton	IND	51	60.7	28	6	0.18	94	0.36	0.52	6.6
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	44	66.7	27	6	0.19	23	0.11	0.37	16.6
Justin Jefferson	MIN	59	92.2	32	5	0.18	105	0.4	0.55	17.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	59	78.7	41	5	0.11	23	0.06	0.21	5.9
KhaDarel Hodge	CLE	48	71.6	20	5	0.28	120	0.46	0.74	10.3
Michael Gallup	DAL	57	86.4	28	5	0.16	58	0.29	0.44	4.9
Malcolm Perry	MIA	51	78.5	37	5	0.14	25	0.08	0.26	5.3
Keelan Cole Sr.	JAX	47	81	32	5	0.15	51	0.15	0.33	4.6
Emmanuel Sanders	NO	39	59.1	21	5	0.22	44	0.32	0.55	10.6
DK Metcalf	SEA	61	92.4	36	5	0.19	51	0.27	0.47	13.6
Dez Bryant	BAL	35	53.8	20	5	0.18	10	0.03	0.29	6.8
Brandin Cooks	HOU	57	93.4	43	5	0.14	57	0.18	0.33	12.5
Jalen Reagor	PHI	63	92.6	38	5	0.15	41	0.2	0.36	9.2
Breshad Perriman	NYJ	59	98.3	31	4	0.14	121	0.31	0.43	13.4
Chris Conley	JAX	37	63.8	30	4	0.12	42	0.13	0.27	2.3
Rashard Higgins	CLE	40	59.7	18	4	0.22	83	0.32	0.56	9.5
Christian Blake	ATL	37	59.7	25	4	0.12	35	0.13	0.27	4.8
Allen Lazard	GB	36	60	25	4	0.12	35	0.12	0.26	3.8
Greg Ward	PHI	46	67.6	31	4	0.12	-7	-0.04	0.15	3.9
Byron Pringle	KC	40	51.3	26	4	0.09	27	0.08	0.19	4.7
Ray-Ray McCloud III	PIT	20	26.7	12	4	0.09	-3	-0.01	0.12	6.3
Keke Coutee	HOU	35	57.4	26	4	0.11	40	0.13	0.25	9
Week 11 AVG WR	NFL	41	61	26	5	0.16	53	0.19	0.37	9.4

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Brandon Aiyuk (BYE), Cole Beasley (BYE)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 11 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 9.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 11.

If you took the risk at the beginning of the season on Keenan Allen, it has more than paid off. According to fantasydata.com, Allen was drafted as WR23 and 51.6 overall. As of the writing of this article, Allen has rocketed to WR3 in PPR leagues. Much of that can be accredited to the success of rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert, who is a top-10 quarterback in his own right. The Herbert-Allen connection has Allen leading the league in targets with 112. He also leads all but Davante Adams in team target share where Allen is commanding an astonishing 30% of the team targets. While his yards after the catch leaves some to be desired, only 4.7 yards per reception, his overwhelming volume keeps Allen at a very high floor. With the Chargers having the 10th best strength of schedule for receivers going forward, don’t expect there to be much of a drop-off. Madden will have to keep adjusting their rankings this year.

The Jets have not been a strong source of fantasy goodness in 2020. Jamison Crowder is a target magnet when Sam Darnold is under center, but the rest of the offensive weapons have been a disappointment. The Jets rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims missed six games with a hamstring injury but is now starting to make his impact on the offense. Mims has yet to top a WR3 outing in fantasy, but the underlying measures look promising. Mims is ranked 6th in the league in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) which weighs target share and air yard market share. Mims has a 25% target share and 39% of New York’s air yards since he’s returned in Week 7. Mims is only rostered in 7% of Yahoo leagues and has some favorable matchups in the last quarter of the season. A breakout game may be on the horizon.

Other Week 11 Opportunity Standouts: Diontae Johnson, Robert Woods, Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Russell Gage, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, Larry Fitzgerald

Tight End

Week 11: TE Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	RZ TARGETS	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Travis Kelce	KC	69	88.5	44	10	0.23	1	118	0.34	0.58	26.86
Mark Andrews	BAL	56	86.2	31	7	0.25	1	119	0.41	0.66	20.6
Hunter Henry	LAC	75	91.5	49	7	0.15	4	68	0.21	0.36	14.8
Eric Ebron	PIT	70	93.3	41	7	0.15	1	54	0.15	0.33	13.6
Darren Waller	LV	55	93.2	29	7	0.24	2	37	0.16	0.47	21.8
T.J. Hockenson	DET	37	66.1	24	7	0.22	0	39	0.2	0.47	10.8
Rob Gronkowski	TB	54	78.3	31	6	0.13	1	59	0.14	0.29	4.5
Dallas Goedert	PHI	68	100	39	6	0.18	1	33	0.16	0.38	18.7
Jordan Akins	HOU	31	50.8	24	6	0.16	0	66	0.21	0.39	13.3
Dalton Schultz	DAL	60	90.9	27	6	0.19	3	33	0.16	0.41	12.5
Jonnu Smith	TEN	52	74.3	23	6	0.19	2	4	0.02	0.3	12
Mike Gesicki	MIA	43	66.2	34	5	0.14	1	51	0.17	0.32	8.3
Tyler Eifert	JAX	24	41.4	19	5	0.15	1	77	0.23	0.39	5.2
Robert Tonyan	GB	44	73.3	33	5	0.15	1	35	0.12	0.31	15.4
Logan Thomas	WAS	56	90.3	27	5	0.21	0	22	0.15	0.42	2.8
Noah Fant	DEN	49	75.4	26	5	0.17	2	23	0.07	0.3	9.5
Trey Burton	IND	24	28.6	15	5	0.15	2	40	0.15	0.33	10.5
Anthony Firkser	TEN	28	40	18	5	0.16	2	31	0.16	0.34	7.3
Austin Hooper	CLE	45	67.2	16	5	0.28	1	24	0.09	0.48	6.3
Gerald Everett	LAR	41	56.9	22	5	0.1	1	12	0.05	0.18	6.7
Drew Sample	CIN	57	83.8	35	4	0.09	0	30	0.07	0.19	4.9
Cameron Brate	TB	29	42	20	4	0.09	0	53	0.13	0.22	5.3
Tyler Higbee	LAR	52	72.2	26	4	0.08	0	14	0.05	0.16	6
Chris Herndon	NYJ	36	60	19	3	0.11	1	38	0.1	0.23	11.2
Ryan Izzo	NE	56	81.2	28	3	0.08	0	0	0	0.12	7.9
Ben Ellefson	JAX	26	44.8	10	3	0.09	0	33	0.1	0.21	2
Pharaoh Brown	HOU	27	44.3	13	3	0.08	0	21	0.07	0.17	4.2
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	45	70.3	15	3	0.11	1	5	0.02	0.17	5.8
Jace Sternberger	GB	16	26.7	9	3	0.09	1	6	0.02	0.15	5.3
Jacob Hollister	SEA	13	19.7	7	3	0.11	0	8	0.04	0.2	3.4
Hayden Hurst	ATL	54	87.1	38	2	0.06	1	0	0	0.09	0
Richard Rodgers	PHI	22	32.4	7	2	0.06	1	44	0.22	0.24	12.8
Maxx Williams	ARI	38	56.7	16	2	0.05	0	23	0.08	0.13	4.9
Dan Arnold	ARI	26	38.8	17	2	0.05	1	23	0.08	0.13	7.4
Greg Olsen	SEA	40	60.6	20	2	0.07	0	11	0.06	0.15	4
Irv Smith Jr.	MIN	33	51.6	21	2	0.07	0	11	0.04	0.14	4.3
Jesse James	DET	29	51.8	13	2	0.06	0	17	0.09	0.15	1.3
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	43	51.2	15	2	0.06	0	6	0.02	0.1	1.6
Darren Fells	HOU	21	34.4	9	2	0.05	0	19	0.06	0.12	4.9
Jack Doyle	IND	45	53.6	10	2	0.06	1	8	0.03	0.11	7.6
Nick Vannett	DEN	41	63.1	13	2	0.07	1	2	0.01	0.1	4.4
Week 11 AVG TE		37	56	18	3	0.1	1	25	0.09	0.21	6.6

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Logan Thomas (2.8)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 11 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 6.6 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 11.

Very quietly, Eric Ebron has put together TE1 performances in four of the five last weeks. Ebron ranks 11th in targets and 8th in air yards for tight ends but is currently TE14 in PPR formats. Ebron has 10 targets within the red zone but has only been able to bring in five of them. When dissecting those red-zone targets, only two of the ten targets came from 10-yards or closer. This is important because the likelihood of a touchdown is much higher in this part of the field. Ebron has scored on both of his targets from 10 yards or closer to the endzone. This pace should continue as the Steelers are the second-most pass-happy offense in neutral game scripts where they throw 62% of the time. He does have a tough stretch of matchups after Week 12, but if you need a tight end he may be available and isn’t a touchdown-dependent play.

Other Week 11 Opportunity Standouts: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Rob Gronkowski, Dalton Schultz, Jordan Akins

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire

Opportunity Report: Week 12

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