Opportunity Report: Week 12

Kenny Hyttenhove looks at which players are getting the most opportunities to score fantasy points. Who should you fade, and who is of interest based on usage?

Why Volume?

 

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

 

Reading the Opportunity Report

 

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets)  of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

 

Running Back

 

Week 11: RB Volume Leaders

 

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): J.D. McKissic (9.9), Giovani Bernard (9.5)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 11 Hit Rate: 100% scored above 7.9 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 11.

 

  • Although James White has only put up one RB1 week in PPR format, he’s been consistent when getting opportunities. When he gets double-digit opportunities (rushes + targets), White has the floor to be an RB2 with an RB1 ceiling. White is 2nd in RB target share, with 19% of his team targets, and ranks 6th in the league with 9.9 yards after the catch per reception. White has performed well in fantasy seeing as he has yet to find the end zone. White has only seen two attempts and three targets within the red zone in 2020. With the season-ending injury to Rex Burkhead, look for the Patriots to lean on White’s sure hands as they get in closer to the end zone. Burkhead was the Patriots’ top-performing back in the red zone and those opportunities need to be redistributed. Look for White to benefit.

 

  • Back and forth, it’s like the weather. Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. Drake started the season as the back to own, but then Edmonds looked to be the better back this season and took over the opportunities. Now it seems as though we have shifted back to Drake. In Week 11, Drake had his best week since Week 6 as he finished as an RB1. Drake was still inefficient in the run game but was able to save his day with a touchdown. For the first time all season, Drake also out-targeted Edmonds, 5-4. Edmonds scored on one of his targets within the green zone. That green zone touch was one of only two opportunities Edmonds saw within the red zone in Week 11. Drake saw four opportunities. Drake’s use in the red zone has been consistently been better than Edmonds, especially in the green zone. Drake’s biggest problem isn’t Edmonds, but Kyler Murray. Murray has seven rush attempts this season within the five-yard line and has scored five touchdowns. This has capped Drake’s ceiling because he’s the least efficient back between him and Edmonds. Drake needs those green zone touches to score touchdowns to cover for his inefficiency on the other parts of the field. Since the touchdowns aren’t coming and Murray is currently on an MVP pace, I would stash or cut Drake loose.

 

Other Week 11 Opportunity Standouts: Kalen Ballage, Salvon Ahmed, Ty Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Duke Johnson, Miles Sanders, Kerryon Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette

 

Wide Receiver

 

Week 11: WR Volume Leaders

 

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Brandon Aiyuk (BYE), Cole Beasley (BYE)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 11 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 9.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 11.

 

  • If you took the risk at the beginning of the season on Keenan Allen, it has more than paid off. According to fantasydata.com, Allen was drafted as WR23 and 51.6 overall. As of the writing of this article, Allen has rocketed to WR3 in PPR leagues. Much of that can be accredited to the success of rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert, who is a top-10 quarterback in his own right. The Herbert-Allen connection has Allen leading the league in targets with 112. He also leads all but Davante Adams in team target share where Allen is commanding an astonishing 30% of the team targets. While his yards after the catch leaves some to be desired, only 4.7 yards per reception, his overwhelming volume keeps Allen at a very high floor. With the Chargers having the 10th best strength of schedule for receivers going forward, don’t expect there to be much of a drop-off. Madden will have to keep adjusting their rankings this year.
  • The Jets have not been a strong source of fantasy goodness in 2020. Jamison Crowder is a target magnet when Sam Darnold is under center, but the rest of the offensive weapons have been a disappointment. The Jets rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims missed six games with a hamstring injury but is now starting to make his impact on the offense. Mims has yet to top a WR3 outing in fantasy, but the underlying measures look promising. Mims is ranked 6th in the league in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) which weighs target share and air yard market share. Mims has a 25% target share and 39% of New York’s air yards since he’s returned in Week 7. Mims is only rostered in 7% of Yahoo leagues and has some favorable matchups in the last quarter of the season. A breakout game may be on the horizon.

 

Other Week 11 Opportunity Standouts: Diontae Johnson, Robert Woods, Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Russell Gage, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, Larry Fitzgerald

 

Tight End

 

Week 11: TE Volume Leaders

 

Week 10 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Logan Thomas (2.8)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 11 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 6.6 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 11.

 

  • Very quietly, Eric Ebron has put together TE1 performances in four of the five last weeks. Ebron ranks 11th in targets and 8th in air yards for tight ends but is currently TE14 in PPR formats. Ebron has 10 targets within the red zone but has only been able to bring in five of them. When dissecting those red-zone targets, only two of the ten targets came from 10-yards or closer. This is important because the likelihood of a touchdown is much higher in this part of the field. Ebron has scored on both of his targets from 10 yards or closer to the endzone. This pace should continue as the Steelers are the second-most pass-happy offense in neutral game scripts where they throw 62% of the time. He does have a tough stretch of matchups after Week 12, but if you need a tight end he may be available and isn’t a touchdown-dependent play.

 

Other Week 11 Opportunity Standouts: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Rob Gronkowski, Dalton Schultz, Jordan Akins

 

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

 

Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire

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