Why Volume?
Efficiency production gets the attention and highlights in your Twitter feed, but having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see what players are getting the best opportunities to produce on the field, thus scoring you fantasy points. After all, your players can’t score fantasy points for you if they never get the opportunity. You want as many dart throws at scoring fantasy points as possible.
Reading the Opportunity Report
| Color | What Does It Mean? | Category Name |
|---|---|---|
| The player is highlighted in red | The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position. | I call this the “Elite” category. |
| The player is highlighted in blue | The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position. | I call this the “Exceptional” category. |
| The player highlighted in green | The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position. | I call this the “Above Average” category. |
Running Back
Week 5 Running Back Volume Leaders
| Player | Position | Team | Implied Touches | Attempts | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | RB | IND | 32 | 29 | 3 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OAK | 30 | 26 | 4 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | JAX | 30 | 23 | 7 |
| Chris Carson | RB | SEA | 29 | 27 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | CAR | 28 | 19 | 9 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | 27 | 21 | 6 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GNB | 27 | 19 | 8 |
| Le’Veon Bell | RB | NYJ | 24 | 15 | 9 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NOR | 23 | 16 | 7 |
| Carlos Hyde | RB | HOU | 22 | 21 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | BAL | 21 | 19 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | HB | CIN | 20 | 19 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 19 | 3 | 16 |
| James White | RB | NWE | 15 | 6 | 9 |
| Tarik Cohen | RB | CHI | 11 | 4 | 7 |
| Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | 11 | 4 | 7 |
- No surprises with the names at the top of the Implied Touches (Attempts+Targets) column. Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, and Josh Jacobs are all backs with little to no competition for committee work.
- Fournette has not been the most efficient with his volume ranking only 19th in the league in PFF’s Elusive Rating, but his volume is coming in both the run and passing game which can’t be said about Mack and Jacobs.
- Carlos Hyde saw a surprising 22 Implied Touches with 21 touches coming on the ground. Compared to Duke Johnson‘s 10 Implied Touches, Hyde looks like he could be streamable when Houston projects to be in a positive game script.
- Austin Eckler registered 19 Implied Touches after the return of Melvin Gordon. Eckler made up an insane 33% of the Chargers targets as Los Angeles tried to keep up with Denver. This is not a sustainable number for a running back. Eckler’s touches need to be monitored closely as Gordon knocks more rust off as the weeks progress.
Wide Receiver
Week 5 Wide Receiver Volume Leaders
| Player | Position | Team | Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | % of Team Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | WR | LA | 17 | 134 | 33% | 35% |
| Will Fuller | WR | HOU | 16 | 143 | 50% | 48% |
| Amari Cooper | WR | DAL | 14 | 166 | 35% | 32% |
| Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | 14 | 137 | 29% | 32% |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | 14 | 71 | 41% | 37% |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 13 | 155 | 73% | 27% |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 13 | 144 | 56% | 36% |
| D.J. Chark | WR | JAC | 11 | 175 | 43% | 25% |
| Dede Westbrook | WR | JAC | 11 | 84 | 21% | 25% |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | 10 | 157 | 41% | 26% |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | ATL | 9 | 141 | 39% | 20% |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 9 | 137 | 59% | 33% |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | NYJ | 9 | 89 | 70% | 35% |
| Allen Robinson | WR | CHI | 8 | 108 | 51% | 27% |
| D.J. Moore | WR | CAR | 8 | 89 | 47% | 26% |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | 8 | 87 | 40% | 30% |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 7 | 123 | 69% | 26% |
| Anthony Miller | WR | CHI | 7 | 99 | 47% | 23% |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 7 | 53 | 41% | 35% |
- Michael Gallup played a huge role in the Dallas offense after returning from a knee injury. Gallup is making the most of his opportunities too. He is leading the league in yards per route run. He’s a must-start.
- Nearly the same things can be said for the Cowboys other receiver, Amari Cooper. He is tied for 6th in the league in targets(43) and 5th in team target share (25%). With all the targets he ranks 3rd in the league in yards per route run. He’s a firm WR1.
- Be wary of the large air yard market share for Demaryius Thomas and Terry McLaurin. The number tells us that the team wants to get them the football, however, both players will be undergoing changes to the offense in Week 6 that stand to hurt their volume. Thomas averaged fewer targets per game with Sam Darnold under center than Luke Falk. Washington is under a new regime and from all reports an offensive philosophy change. New Interim Coach Bill Callahan has stated he wants to run the ball more, which hurts McLaurin’s value.
Tight End
Week 5 Tight End Volume Leaders
| Name | Position | Team | Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | % of Team Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | TE | LA | 11 | 100 | 24% | 22% |
| Evan Engram | TE | NYG | 11 | 83 | 22% | 29% |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 10 | 118 | 25% | 26% |
| Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | 9 | 65 | 18% | 20% |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 8 | 64 | 35% | 28% |
| Zach Ertz | TE | PHI | 7 | 61 | 30% | 24% |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 7 | 45 | 21% | 25% |
| Darren Waller | TE | OAK | 5 | 26 | 26% | 16% |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | 4 | 57 | 12% | 9% |
| Eric Ebron | TE | IND | 4 | 45 | 30% | 14% |
| Jeff Heuerman | TE | DEN | 3 | 29 | 23% | 15% |
- If you are feeling the need to sell Travis Kelce after an inefficient season thus far, DON’T. Kelce ranked in the “Elite” category or three standard deviations above all other tight ends in air yards. The Chiefs are trying to get him the ball, regression (positive) regression will come.
- Gerald Everett had another huge game in week 5. While the Rams other tight end, Tyler Higbee has been efficient in yards per route run, in the barren landscape that is the tight end position Everett is an add. With only 70% and 40% ownership in Yahoo and ESPN leagues respectively, Everett may be on your wire.
Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.
Stats provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com, AirYards.com, PFF.com
(Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)