Opportunity Report: Week 6

Kenny Hyttenhove looks at which players are getting the most opportunities to score fantasy points. Who should you fade, and who is of interest based on usage?

Why Volume?

 

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

 

Reading the Opportunity Report

 

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets)  of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Players in the “Getting Louder” section are players that are showing positive volume statistics but did not get a write-up. They are worth a look based on their volume peripherals included in the charts.

 

Running Back

 

Week 5: RB Volume Leaders

 

Week 5 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Antonio Gibson (10.1), Mike Davis (29.3), Ronald Jones (15.5), Todd Gurley (25)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 5 Hit Rate: 100% scored above 8.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 5.

  • Joe Mixon showed two weeks ago that he can be the first-round pick you paid for. However for the majority of the year that hasn’t been the case. He is currently ranked 36th in PFF’s Elusive Rating, but in 2019 he was 40th after 5 games. So far in the 2020 season, he has three RB3 finishes, an RB2 finish last week against Baltimore, and an RB1 finish. In the first 5 games of 2019, he had four RB3 weeks and an RB1 week. He made it to the bye week and finished the year with RB1 performances five out of the eight final games. Diagnosis: Mixon seems to be a slow starter. The good news is he has had many more opportunities in 2020 than in 2019. By the end of Week 5 in 2019, Mixon had a total of 82 Implied Touches (targets + attempts) with an average of  16.4/game. This year Mixon has had 124 Implied Touches and an average of 24.8/game. With this type of volume, hopefully, Mixon can turn things around earlier and become more efficient. We know he can be an RB1 once the efficiency kicks in. Hang tight Mixon owners.

 

  • Since Week 4, and the absence of Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley have battled for backfield supremacy. In two closely contested games with Tampa Bay and New Orleans, Jackson has proven the back with the most opportunities. He has out-snapped Kelley 63 to 55, seen one more attempt with 21 to Kelley’s 20, and has seen 8 targets to Kelley’s 4. Jackson turned in the third-best PPR performance of his career against the Saints in overtime. He may not have a high ceiling, but he could be a solid RB2 going forward. It is worth watching who will be getting the goal line work as Kelley has gotten the only attempt within the 10-yard line. If this remains the case, Jackon’s touchdown upside may be capped and the lesser but comparable volume of Kelley would be preferable.

 

  • Things have not gone to plan for Kenyan Drake managers. Drake’s position as the RB1 in the Arizona backfield is threatened by Chase Edmonds. Edmonds has looked like the better back on the field and has made the most of his opportunities. Even with Drake out-snapping Edmonds 87-55 since Week 4, Edmonds has more than double Drake’s PPR points (35.2-16.7). The most distressing fact is that Drake has lost nearly his entire target share to Edmonds. In his eight games with the Cardinals in 2019, Drake had a 14% target share which provided a nice floor. Now Edmonds has a 14% target share and Drake is down to just 4%. The only silver lining is that Drake is getting carries within the green zone (5-yard line) which are the most valuable on the field. So far Drake has 4 attempts which he has efficiently turned into 2 touchdowns, while Edmonds has just 1 attempt, but also 1 target. Little by little Edmonds is getting the most valuable opportunities out of the Arizona backfield. If he gets any more opportunities within the 5 or 10-yard lines, he will surpass Drake in fantasy desirability.

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Week 5: WR Volume Leaders

 

 

Week 5 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Terry McLaurin (5.6), Marquis Brown (19.8), Zach Pascal (3.5)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 5 Hit Rate: 33% scored above 9.5 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 5.

 

  • Believe it or not, Robby Anderson is currently ranked as the WR6 in PPR fantasy leagues. Anderson has found a connection with his former teammate Teddy Bridgewater. Once again he put up “Exceptional” ratings in targets, target share, air yard market share, and WOPR. He is currently top 10 in targets, receptions, yards, and WOPR. His start is legitimate and there is room to improve. He only has one touchdown this season. Since yards correlate closely to touchdowns for wide receivers, we can tell that based on his 490 receiving yards, he should have around three touchdowns. More touchdowns are coming.

 

  • The New York Giants are third in the league in pass percentage. They pass on 65% of their plays and that goes down to only 63% when in a neutral game script. They want to throw the football and the player with the largest target share is Darius Slayton. Slayton has a 23% target share in the offense which is good enough to rank him as tenth in the league in targets. Slayton has been a bit boom or bust this season with two WR1 weeks and three WR3 weeks, but the volume is there.

 

  • Jeff Smith only scored 5.3 PPR points last week but he earned “Above Average” in every other wide receiver indicator in the Opportunity Report. Smith is a second-year player with the Jets. He went undrafted from Boston College but according to playerprofiler.com, he has some decent athletic makeup. It’s tough to put too much stock into any offensive player for the Jets at the moment, but if you need a streamer this week, the Jets receivers have a good matchup against the Dolphins. He’s worth a speculative add in deep leagues.

 

Tight End

 

Week 5: TE Volume Leaders

 

 

Week 5 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Darren Waller (15.8), Greg Olsen (3), Ian Thomas (0)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 5 Hit Rate: 33% scored above 5.6 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 5.

 

  • You probably could have guessed but Travis Kelce is top ten in every major statistic used to measure tight ends in fantasy. He put up amazing numbers in Week 5 with four “Elite” designations. Kelce is seeing a lot of targets and specifically in the red zone. He trails only Jimmy Graham with eight total red zone targets. Those targets are most likely to turn into touchdowns. He’s turned those eight targets into five receptions and 3 touchdowns. He has been very efficient, especially in an offense that has plenty of weapons to go around. Kelce will continue to rack up points, even if his team-leading 24% target share takes a bit of a hit with the Le’Veon Bell signing.

 

  • Since Week 3, Austin Hooper has become a major part of the Cleveland Browns offense. Since then Hooper is second to only Odell Beckham Jr. in team target share with 24%. He’s also third in air yards and WOPR since Week 3. In Weeks 4 and 5 he turned in TE1 performances against two of the toughest defenses against the tight end according to PFF’s strength of schedule tool. Hooper is still owned in only 58% of Yahoo leagues. He may be worth adding over an underperforming tight end that you drafted, such as Hayden Hurst.

 

 

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com

 

(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Feature Graphic Designed by James Peterson (Follow @jhp_design714 on Instagram & Twitter)

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