Why Volume?
Efficiency production gets the attention and highlights in your Twitter feed, but having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see what players are getting the best opportunities to produce on the field, thus scoring you fantasy points. After all, your players can’t score fantasy points for you if they never get the opportunity. You want as many darts to throws at scoring fantasy points as possible.
| Color | What Does It Mean? | Category Name |
|---|---|---|
| The player is highlighted in blue | The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position. | I call this the “Elite” category. |
| The player is highlighted in green | The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position. | I call this the “Exceptional” category. |
| The player highlighted in yellow | The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position. | I call this the “Above Average” category. |
Not every running back, wide receiver, and tight end is included in the player pool. The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the top volume producer at their position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.
Running Back
| Name | Pos | Team | Implied Touches | Attempts | Targets | % of Team Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | RB | NOR | 33 | 27 | 6 | 16% | 1 | 0% | 32 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | JAX | 31 | 29 | 2 | 6% | 4 | 2% | 16.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | ARI | 31 | 27 | 4 | 19% | 0 | 0% | 35 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | 29 | 22 | 7 | 26% | -1 | 0% | 26.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | 27 | 25 | 2 | 6% | -12 | -3% | 27.9 |
| Chris Carson | RB | SEA | 26 | 21 | 5 | 12% | 11 | 2% | 10.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OAK | 24 | 21 | 3 | 10% | -7 | -2% | 16.4 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 23 | 22 | 1 | 3% | -3 | -1% | 17.8 |
| Le’Veon Bell | RB | NYJ | 19 | 15 | 4 | 12% | 16 | 4% | 8.6 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GNB | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13% | 20 | 7% | 18.3 |
| Tarik Cohen | RB | CHI | 15 | 3 | 12 | 22% | -7 | -2% | 11.9 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | DET | 14 | 10 | 4 | 9% | 17 | 4% | 9.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 13 | 5 | 8 | 21% | 52 | 12% | 25.5 |
| James White | RB | NWE | 13 | 5 | 8 | 18% | 5 | 2% | 12.9 |
| Duke Johnson | RB | HOU | 12 | 7 | 5 | 15% | 15 | 6% | 7.6 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | GNB | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16% | 1 | 0% | 13.1 |
| Average Week 7 Player | RB | NFL | 15 | 13 | 3 | 9% | 2 | 0% | 11 |
Week 6 Highlighted Players(PPR Points): Carlos Hyde(3.5), Aaron Jones(18.3), Keyan Drake(8.8), Royce Freeman(16.7)
Above Average Week 7 PPR Performance Hit Rate: 50% scored above 11 PPR Points.
- Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds were ranked 1st and T-2nd in implied touches for Week 7. Both running backs stepped into the volume that is usually reserved running backs being drafted top 5 at their position. They play each other this week and with both Alvin Kamara and David Johnson’s statuses up in the air at the time writing, both are strong RB2. Both benefitted from multiple touchdowns last week and that can’t be relied upon, but continued volume can. Murray has a better matchup with Arizona’s run defense ranked seventh from the bottom. While Edmonds will have to run into the teeth of the Saints top 10 run defense.
- With the news of Kerryon Johnson hitting the injured reserve this week, Ty Johnson was a top add on the waiver wire. He is another back that will walk into volume as Kerryon took 56% of the team’s snaps. Ty Johnson is a different back than Kerryon as Detroit tried to get him the ball in space through the air. Targets are inherently more valuable than a rushing attempt which makes Ty Johnson a good play if his volume does indeed increase.
- Austin Ekler is not going away quietly. Even with Melvin Gordon returning from his holdout, Ekler remains an incredibly efficient back and a weapon through the air. Ekler raked up “Elite” designation in both air yards and air yards market share. Keep him in your lineups, especially if the Chargers are not favored.
- Duke Johnson finished just on the fringes of the “Above Average” category in targets and air yards. This is nothing new per se. He is being utilized in the passing game like he was in Cleveland but is not seeing the attempts that Carlos Hyde continues to see. It’s extremely disappointing, especially since he ranks first in PFF Elusive Rating, he just needs more touches. If he finds a path to carries or a higher snap share, he’s a must-start.
Wide Receiver
| Name | Position | Team | Targets | % of Team Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | WR | CHI | 16 | 30% | 170 | 50% | 24.7 |
| Alex Erickson | WR | CIN | 14 | 33% | 93 | 31% | 21.5 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | 14 | 33% | 75 | 25% | 10.5 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | DET | 13 | 29% | 115 | 30% | 43.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | 12 | 35% | 123 | 46% | 25.6 |
| Julian Edelman | WR | NE | 12 | 27% | 111 | 50% | 13.7 |
| Golden Tate | WR | NYG | 11 | 31% | 102 | 40% | 14 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 11 | 29% | 122 | 43% | 22.1 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 11 | 29% | 209 | 50% | 10.1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | IND | 11 | 28% | 127 | 36% | 19.4 |
| Danny Amendola | WR | DET | 11 | 24% | 113 | 29% | 18.5 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | MIA | 10 | 29% | 100 | 30% | 16.5 |
| Dede Westbrook | WR | JAC | 9 | 28% | 58 | 31% | 17.7 |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | NYJ | 9 | 28% | 141 | 35% | 7.2 |
| Julio Jones | WR | ATL | 9 | 27% | 139 | 51% | 15.3 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | TEN | 8 | 27% | 56 | 26% | 12.2 |
| Chris Conley | WR | JAC | 8 | 25% | 76 | 41% | 11.3 |
| Robby Anderson | WR | NYJ | 8 | 25% | 180 | 45% | 2 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | 8 | 24% | 120 | 32% | 21.2 |
| Preston Williams | WR | MIA | 8 | 23% | 115 | 34% | 14.2 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | KC | 5 | 17% | 84 | 49% | 16.4 |
| Trey Quinn | WR | WAS | 3 | 25% | 38 | 78% | 5 |
| Damiere Byrd | WR | ARI | 2 | 10% | 46 | 44% | 1.4 |
| Average Week 7 Player | WR | NFL | 6 | 19% | 68 | 24% | 11 |
Week 6 Highlighted Players(PPR Points): Stefon Diggs(21.2), Courtland Sutton(14.7), Mike Williams(8.7)
Above Average Week 7 PPR Performance Hit Rate: 66% scored above 11 PPR Points.
- Keenan Allen continues to be a target monster. His last few weeks have not produced the fantasy points that he put up early in the season, but the volume is there. He only scored 10 points last week in PPR leagues (where he excels) but had over 200 yards in air yards. The Chargers want the ball in his hands and his opportunities will continue as he remains healthy.
- Tyler Boyd underperformed last week when looking at the opportunity that he had. The Bengals threw the ball 42 times in a losing effort on Sunday and Boyd saw a third of those targets. Cincinnati is winless and will continue to pass as they have the 19th ranked strength of schedule going forward according to Fantasy Pros.
- Quietly, Golden Tate has averaged eight targets a game since his suspension. According to PFF, Tate is playing 87.5% of his snaps from the slot and ranks 16th in yards per route run (yd/rr) from that alignment with 1.99 yd/rr. He is a WR3, with low-end WR2 upside with this type of volume.
- With the return of Sam Darnold‘s spleen, Robby Anderson saw an uptick in air yards. Anderson is a deep threat that struggled to be efficient against the best defense and arguably, corner in football last Monday Night. His boom game is coming.
Tight End
| Name | Position | Team | Targets | % of Team Targets | Air Yards | % of Team Air Yards | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | TE | LA | 10 | 26% | 147 | 39% | 15 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 8 | 40% | 93 | 46% | 5.9 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 8 | 27% | 48 | 28% | 10.4 |
| Darren Waller | TE | OAK | 8 | 26% | 93 | 29% | 31.6 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | LAC | 8 | 21% | 96 | 23% | 15.7 |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | 6 | 18% | 64 | 17% | 16.8 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 5 | 24% | 53 | 28% | 6.8 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | PHI | 5 | 19% | 87 | 27% | 5.8 |
| Noah Fant | TE | DEN | 5 | 15% | 91 | 29% | 1.7 |
| Average Week 7 Player | TE | NFL | 4 | 14% | 39 | 14% | 8 |
Week 6 Highlighted Players(PPR Points): Austin Hooper(14.6), Mike Gesicki(8.1)
Above Average Week 7 PPR Performance Hit Rate: 100% scored above 8 PPR Points.
- Although he has been featured before in the article, Mark Andrews bears mentioning. He posted a frightening 40% target share last week. Of course, the Ravens only threw the ball 20 times on 21 passing plays run, but it’s crystal clear that Andrews is who Lamar Jackson is looking for as he drops back.
- Denver’s passing attack is nothing to write home about. They are merely a middling offense. With the departure of Emmanuel Sanders, most fantasy managers will assume that DaeSean Hamilton will absorb all of his approximately 6 targets per game. While that may be a safe inference, if a few of those targets make their way towards Noah Fant, he could become a consistent play in the barren tight end landscape. Fant gets looks downfield with a 10.78 average depth of target which ranks seventh for tight ends. No risk it, no biscuit.
- Gerald Everett continues to breakout this season. He is seeing a consistent cascade of targets and air yards in a dangerous offense. He’s still below 75% ownership in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. He’s what O.J. Howard was supposed to be this season.
Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.
Stats provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com, AirYards.com, PFF.com
(Photo by David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire)