Opportunity Report: Week 8

Why Volume?

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

Reading the Opportunity Report

Color	What Does It Mean?	Category Name
The player is highlighted in blue	The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position.	I call this the “Elite” category.
The player is highlighted in green	The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position.	I call this the “Exceptional” category.
The player highlighted in yellow	The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position.	I call this the “Above Average” category.

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets) of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Players in the “Getting Louder” section are players that are showing positive volume statistics but did not get a write-up. They are worth a look based on their volume peripherals included in the charts.

Running Back

Week 7: RB Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	IMPLIED TOUCHES	TOUCHES	rATT	GZ rATT	TGT	FPTS
James Robinson	JAX	57	90.5	28	26	22	1	6	31.7
Todd Gurley II	ATL	53	70.7	26	25	23	3	3	22.2
James Conner	PIT	66	83.5	25	23	20	1	5	14.1
Jamaal Williams	GB	55	88.7	24	23	19	2	5	21.4
Derrick Henry	TEN	42	73.7	22	22	20	2	2	15.2
Alvin Kamara	NO	51	72.9	22	22	14	0	8	22.8
Kareem Hunt	CLE	47	90.4	22	21	18	0	4	19.2
Melvin Gordon III	DEN	46	59.7	21	19	17	1	4	12
Antonio Gibson	WAS	33	47.8	21	20	20	1	1	18.8
David Montgomery	CHI	52	82.5	19	19	14	1	5	11.9
Jeff Wilson Jr.	SF	37	56.1	19	19	17	1	2	32
Carlos Hyde	SEA	41	48.8	19	18	15	0	4	16.6
Leonard Fournette	TB	40	55.6	18	17	11	1	7	15.7
Giovani Bernard	CIN	57	76	18	18	13	1	5	20.6
David Johnson	HOU	54	79.4	18	18	14	1	4	16.4
Joshua Kelley	LAC	38	46.9	17	17	12	1	5	10.3
Darrell Henderson Jr.	LAR	40	55.6	17	17	15	1	2	9.7
Boston Scott	PHI	56	69.1	17	15	12	0	5	18.2
Kenyan Drake	ARI	34	40.5	16	15	14	1	2	5.1
Wayne Gallman	NYG	32	53.3	15	15	10	1	5	16.4
Ronald Jones II	TB	31	43.1	15	14	13	1	2	10.6
D’Andre Swift	DET	28	45.2	14	13	9	1	5	14.8
Josh Jacobs	LV	32	49.2	14	13	10	1	4	6.1
La’Mical Perine	NYJ	40	70.2	14	13	11	1	3	13.5
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	37	66.1	14	13	12	0	2	6.1
Devin Singletary	BUF	40	54.1	13	10	8	0	5	6.7
Latavius Murray	NO	23	32.9	12	12	11	1	1	6.6
Adrian Peterson	DET	19	30.6	12	12	11	1	1	4
Chase Edmonds	ARI	51	60.7	12	12	5	0	7	21.5
Mike Davis	CAR	33	71.7	12	12	7	0	5	8.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	27	52.9	12	9	8	0	4	13.3
Malcolm Brown	LAR	29	40.3	11	10	10	1	1	11.7
Justin Jackson	LAC	31	38.3	11	10	5	0	6	10.5
Damien Harris	NE	21	40.4	11	11	10	0	1	8
Frank Gore	NYJ	16	28.1	11	11	11	0	0	6
Zack Moss	BUF	35	47.3	10	10	7	0	3	10.2
JaMycal Hasty	SF	15	22.7	10	10	9	0	1	8.3
Peyton Barber	WAS	23	33.3	10	10	10	0	0	3.4
Tony Pollard	DAL	19	33.9	9	9	8	0	1	3.2
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	14	18.2	9	9	9	0	0	7.9
Rex Burkhead	NE	25	48.1	8	7	4	0	4	7.7
J.D. McKissic	WAS	34	49.3	7	7	5	0	2	7.1
Chris Carson	SEA	15	17.9	7	6	5	0	2	5.1
Jalen Richard	LV	19	29.2	7	7	7	0	0	2.4
Kyle Juszczyk	SF	37	56.1	6	5	4	1	2	10.6
Duke Johnson	HOU	20	29.4	6	6	1	0	5	9.2
Le’Veon Bell	KC	17	33.3	6	6	6	0	0	3.9
Week 7 RB AVG	NFL	27	40	10	9	8	0	2	8.4

Week 7 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): David Johnson (16.4), D’Andre Swift (14.8), Phillip Lindsay (7.9)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 7 Hit Rate: 66% scored above 8.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 7.

Another week and another Todd Gurley touchdown. Gurley is third in rushing attempts within the 5-yard line so far this season. He has a total of 10 attempts and has scored four touchdowns. That is right in line with the trend over the last 5 years in which running backs have scored a touchdown on 42.08% of their attempts from 5 yards and in. Gurley has been an average back, that has been supported by touchdowns. If the opportunities within the green zone dry up, Gurley will be hard-pressed to put up similar point totals. He ranks 28th of all running backs this year in breakaway run rate, with a rush of over 15-yards only 3.3% of his attempts. This could be the sell high window you need for Gurley because once the touchdowns dry up, so do the fantasy points.

Jamaal Williams got his chance to be the focus of the Green Bay backfield in Week 7 after Aaron Jones sat with a calf injury. He’s never been a fantasy darling. A more valuable real football player than a fantasy football player. According to Rotoviz.com’s NFL Stat Explorer, Williams has averaged 9.1 PPR/G in his 51 career appearances dating back to 2017. That’s RB3/Fringe-RB2 territory. However, there have been games where he has flashed when given the opportunity, and Week 7 was an example. Williams finished with an “Exceptional Rating” in implied touches, attempts, and looks within the green zone. That is a magical recipe for fantasy success as it is, but he also sprinkled in five targets. While Week 7 was a great matchup against a struggling Houston defense, Week 8 looks to be another great matchup as Green Bay takes on division rival Minnesota. According to PFF, this is the 5th best matchup for a running back in Week 8 and Aaron Jones may not be back from injury. Should be another opportunistic week for Williams.

There’s not a whole lot that needs to be said about King Henry. We know he’s really good. He takes the vast majority of touches and we wish that he would get more targets. He ranks 32nd in running back targets but first in opportunities (same as implied touches), that tells us he gets A LOT of carries. That’s not necessarily a positive thing since targets are much more valuable than carries. That is unless King Henry is getting a good portion of carries within the shadow of the goal line and of course he is. He is second in the league green zone attempts with 11 touches within 5 yards. He has converted for a touchdown five times which is an expected 45% conversion rate. The truth is, Henry is exactly what we thought he would be when it comes to volume and should be in the overall RB1 conversation going forward.

Other Week 7 Standouts: James Robinson, Leonard Fournette, James Conner, David Montgomery, Gio Bernard, Joshua Kelley, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, La’Mical Perine, Darrell Henderson

Wide Receiver

Week 7: WR Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Tyler Lockett	SEA	78	92.9	54	20	0.43	233	0.56	1.03	53
Davante Adams	GB	57	91.9	33	16	0.48	136	0.59	1.14	44.6
Diontae Johnson	PIT	59	74.7	43	15	0.29	95	0.35	0.68	29
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	65	82.3	47	14	0.31	120	0.45	0.77	17.5
A.J. Green	CIN	65	86.7	46	13	0.28	183	0.41	0.7	15.2
Tyler Boyd	CIN	60	80	47	13	0.28	72	0.16	0.53	27.74
Keenan Allen	LAC	69	85.2	42	13	0.31	116	0.32	0.69	22.5
Cole Beasley	BUF	61	82.4	44	12	0.29	69	0.25	0.6	22.2
DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	80	95.2	51	12	0.25	160	0.42	0.67	24.3
Terry McLaurin	WAS	58	84.1	27	11	0.52	109	0.62	1.22	22
Travis Fulgham	PHI	78	96.3	47	11	0.27	128	0.34	0.64	12.3
Stefon Diggs	BUF	72	97.3	48	11	0.29	124	0.45	0.74	10.8
Corey Davis	TEN	52	91.2	32	10	0.33	94	0.35	0.74	15.5
Marquez Callaway	NO	51	72.9	36	10	0.29	75	0.39	0.7	15.5
Tyreek Hill	KC	37	72.5	24	10	0.42	103	0.57	1.02	17.5
Randall Cobb	HOU	49	72.1	36	10	0.26	85	0.33	0.62	17.5
Scotty Miller	TB	43	59.7	32	9	0.22	143	0.39	0.61	22.9
Chris Godwin	TB	59	81.9	39	9	0.22	57	0.16	0.44	23.8
Brandin Cooks	HOU	55	80.9	41	9	0.24	61	0.24	0.52	13
Nelson Agholor	LV	51	78.5	34	9	0.25	134	0.44	0.68	21.7
Julio Jones	ATL	59	78.7	40	9	0.22	75	0.26	0.52	17.7
Sterling Shepard	NYG	46	76.7	26	8	0.28	57	0.36	0.67	17.9
Christian Kirk	ARI	66	78.6	48	8	0.18	70	0.18	0.4	20.7
Josh Reynolds	LAR	53	73.6	31	8	0.25	139	0.54	0.75	15.2
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	66	78.6	45	8	0.18	38	0.1	0.34	14.2
A.J. Brown	TEN	53	93	31	8	0.27	94	0.35	0.64	27.3
Robby Anderson	CAR	40	87	29	8	0.31	106	0.56	0.85	13.4
DJ Chark Jr.	JAX	55	87.3	33	7	0.29	118	0.46	0.76	3.6
Calvin Ridley	ATL	58	77.3	42	7	0.17	95	0.33	0.49	19.9
Denzel Mims	NYJ	45	78.9	23	7	0.32	53	0.35	0.72	8.2
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	50	75.8	22	7	0.28	108	0.73	0.93	17.5
Darnell Mooney	CHI	51	81	39	7	0.18	153	0.39	0.55	7
Kenny Golladay	DET	52	83.9	35	7	0.22	123	0.36	0.58	17.4
Braxton Berrios	NYJ	48	84.2	26	7	0.32	50	0.33	0.71	7.5
Amari Cooper	DAL	42	75	24	7	0.33	59	0.39	0.77	15.5
Russell Gage	ATL	24	32	20	7	0.17	45	0.16	0.37	11.4
Curtis Samuel	CAR	22	47.8	17	6	0.23	NA	NA	NA	17.3
Marvin Jones Jr.	DET	56	90.3	37	6	0.19	73	0.22	0.43	13
Will Fuller V	HOU	67	98.5	47	6	0.16	53	0.2	0.38	12.5
Greg Ward	PHI	77	95.1	44	6	0.15	47	0.12	0.31	15.2
Jarvis Landry	CLE	40	76.9	25	6	0.21	22	0.08	0.38	10.96
Jakobi Meyers	NE	41	78.8	26	6	0.26	114	0.64	0.84	10.2
Rashard Higgins	CLE	44	84.6	28	6	0.21	101	0.35	0.57	17
Cooper Kupp	LAR	62	86.1	32	6	0.22	26	0.1	0.4	11.9
Hunter Renfrow	LV	35	53.8	24	6	0.17	29	0.1	0.32	8.2
DK Metcalf	SEA	81	96.4	54	5	0.09	59	0.14	0.23	4.3
Anthony Miller	CHI	37	58.7	31	5	0.13	61	0.15	0.31	5
Deonte Harris	NO	20	28.6	16	5	0.14	47	0.25	0.39	14.6
DeSean Jackson	PHI	39	48.1	30	5	0.12	45	0.12	0.27	7.6
D.J. Moore	CAR	42	91.3	30	5	0.19	68	0.36	0.54	25.3
Tee Higgins	CIN	63	84	42	5	0.13	107	0.24	0.36	18.8
Deebo Samuel	SF	41	62.1	19	5	0.2	-12	-0.08	0.24	12.2
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	31	55.4	20	5	0.24	43	0.28	0.56	0.1
Robert Woods	LAR	65	90.3	30	5	0.16	44	0.17	0.35	5.5
Allen Robinson II	CHI	50	79.4	32	4	0.11	65	0.16	0.27	11
Tim Patrick	DEN	51	66.2	30	4	0.11	46	0.17	0.28	7.4
Kenny Stills	HOU	22	32.4	18	4	0.11	49	0.19	0.29	5.4
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	58	75.3	36	4	0.11	57	0.22	0.31	4
Tre’Quan Smith	NO	57	81.4	38	4	0.11	40	0.21	0.32	9.4
Darius Slayton	NYG	55	91.7	33	4	0.14	37	0.23	0.37	4.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	51	82.3	30	4	0.09	29	0.13	0.22	0.9
Danny Amendola	DET	33	53.2	26	4	0.12	42	0.12	0.27	9.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	CHI	13	20.6	9	4	0.11	8	0.02	0.17	4.2
John Hightower	PHI	43	59.7	30	4	0.1	119	0.33	0.38	6
Week 7 AVG WR	NFL	41	60	26	5	0.15	54	0.2	0.37	9.9

Week 7 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Amari Cooper (15.5), Brandin Cooks (13), Zach Pascal (BYE)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 7 Hit Rate: 100% scored above 9.9 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 7.

Just as D.K. Metcalf was starting to garner the majority of the Seattle receiver attention, Tyler Lockett reminded everyone that he’s just as deserving. Lockett started the first three weeks of the season with two WR1 weeks and then faded in Weeks 4 and 5. Seattle has surprised this year with more of a pass friendly offense, they rank second in pass plays in a neutral game script, passing 62% of the time. Lockett has carved himself out the largest chunk of the offense with a 28% target share. Week 7 was an anomaly with Lockett who demanded 20 targets to just 4 for Metcalf, but he now has our attention again. Don’t sleep on Lockett.

If you didn’t know, Calvin Ridley has broken out. He finished the 2019 season as WR27 and showed flashes with three WR1 weeks. This season, Ridley has already bested that total through Week 7. He is a top 10 receiver in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and air yards. When breaking down his targets we see that he leads all wide receivers in the high-value red-zone targets with 12 and is second with 4 targets within the 5-yard line.

Sterling Shepard. Yes, Sterling Shepard. The 2020 season’s current WR92 in PPR leagues. He’s had two WR3 showings in the first two weeks of the season and then went on IR with a turf toe injury. In his Week 7 return, Shepard saw eight targets, with three coming in the red zone and one more in the green zone. These high-value targets show that Shepard is a trusted receiver near the end zone in the fifth most pass-heavy offense so far this season. Shepard may not win you your league, but he is a great bye week fill-in or flex play.

Other Week 7 Standouts: DaVante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, Corey Davis, Greg Ward, A.J. Green, Chris Godwin

Tight End

Week 7: TE Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	RZ TARGETS	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Darren Waller	LV	59	90.8	31	9	0.25	2	49	0.16	0.49	17
Evan Engram	NYG	50	83.3	28	9	0.31	1	46	0.29	0.67	10.9
Eric Ebron	PIT	66	83.5	42	8	0.16	4	64	0.24	0.41	11
Rob Gronkowski	TB	55	76.4	30	8	0.2	3	104	0.29	0.49	17.2
Richard Rodgers	PHI	69	85.2	31	8	0.2	1	70	0.18	0.42	14.5
Hayden Hurst	ATL	55	73.3	36	7	0.17	1	49	0.17	0.38	12.8
Hunter Henry	LAC	62	76.5	35	7	0.17	1	47	0.13	0.34	5.3
Albert Okwuegbunam	DEN	31	40.3	18	7	0.18	1	19	0.07	0.33	13
Noah Fant	DEN	54	70.1	26	7	0.18	0	67	0.25	0.45	6.8
George Kittle	SF	60	90.9	25	7	0.28	0	41	0.28	0.61	10.5
T.J. Hockenson	DET	44	71	29	6	0.19	2	54	0.16	0.39	16.9
Jimmy Graham	CHI	48	76.2	30	6	0.16	1	25	0.06	0.28	8.1
Drew Sample	CIN	73	97.3	44	6	0.13	1	22	0.05	0.23	10.2
Harrison Bryant	CLE	40	76.9	17	5	0.18	2	47	0.16	0.38	21.6
Gerald Everett	LAR	55	76.4	20	5	0.16	1	19	0.07	0.29	12.8
Will Dissly	SEA	49	58.3	29	4	0.09	2	23	0.06	0.17	5.8
Logan Thomas	WAS	54	78.3	19	4	0.19	1	38	0.22	0.44	16
Jared Cook	NO	34	48.6	21	4	0.11	1	30	0.16	0.28	12.2
Jonnu Smith	TEN	40	70.2	14	4	0.13	1	18	0.07	0.25	1.9
Tyler Kroft	BUF	58	78.4	41	4	0.1	0	39	0.14	0.24	10.4
Dalton Schultz	DAL	45	80.4	23	4	0.14	0	13	0.09	0.27	4.2
David Njoku	CLE	31	59.6	12	3	0.11	1	43	0.15	0.27	10
Travis Kelce	KC	40	78.4	24	3	0.12	1	-1	-0.01	0.18	6.1
Johnny Mundt	LAR	46	63.9	14	3	0.09	1	4	0.02	0.15	7.7
Demetrius Harris	CHI	18	28.6	6	3	0.08	1	9	0.02	0.13	3.5
Greg Olsen	SEA	52	61.9	36	3	0.06	0	38	0.09	0.16	3.8
Dan Arnold	ARI	21	25	9	3	0.07	0	59	0.15	0.21	7.7
James O’Shaughnessy	JAX	44	69.8	18	3	0.12	0	25	0.1	0.26	6.2
Marcedes Lewis	GB	31	50	11	3	0.09	0	32	0.14	0.23	1.9
Nick Vannett	DEN	35	45.5	9	3	0.08	0	20	0.08	0.17	4.5
Jacob Hollister	SEA	23	27.4	13	3	0.06	0	11	0.03	0.11	5.2
Robert Tonyan	GB	31	50	20	2	0.06	0	27	0.12	0.17	5.2
Virgil Green	LAC	20	24.7	9	2	0.05	0	43	0.12	0.16	9.6
Cole Kmet	CHI	20	31.7	12	2	0.05	0	32	0.08	0.14	6.5
Vance McDonald	PIT	35	44.3	14	2	0.04	0	1	0	0.06	3.4
Anthony Firkser	TEN	15	26.3	14	2	0.07	0	6	0.02	0.12	2.7
Nick Keizer	KC	12	23.5	2	2	0.08	0	12	0.07	0.17	3.6
Week 7 AVG TE	NFL	35	52.4	17	3	0.1	1	24	0.09	0.21	6.4

Week 7 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): T.J. Hockenson (16.9), Irv Smith Jr. (BYE), Rob Gronkowski (17.2)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 7 Hit Rate: 100% scored above 6.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 7.

Typically fantasy managers don’t invest in rookie tight ends but, Browns rookie Harrison Bryant may be the exception to the rule. The Mackey Award winner out of Florida Atlantic University had an impressive college dominator and breakout age coming into the draft. Bryant was drafted into a crowded tight end room but, finally got the opportunity to be a featured part of the offense with Austin Hooper missing the game with appendicitis. He and David Njoku both put up double-digit performances, but Bryant had more snaps, ran more routes, and was targeted more than Njoku. Bryant also saw two targets within the green zone. If Hooper should miss more time, Bryant should continue to be the feature tight end in the offense. Once Hooper returns, it seems that Bryant is the new TE2 in Cleveland as Njoku looks like a probable trade piece in the approaching deadline.

Other Week 7 Standouts: Rob Gronkowski, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

(Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire | Feature Graphic Designed by James Peterson (Follow @jhp_design714 on Instagram & Twitter)

Opportunity Report: Week 8

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