Opportunity Report: Week 9

Why Volume?

Having a pulse on the distribution of volume in the NFL plays a huge role in winning your fantasy leagues. The Opportunity Report is designed so you can see the players getting the best opportunities to produce on the field. After all, you can’t score fantasy points if your fantasy players are not getting opportunities to touch the ball on the field.

Reading the Opportunity Report

Color	What Does It Mean?	Category Name
The player is highlighted in blue	The player is measuring 3 standard deviations above the average players at his position.	I call this the “Elite” category.
The player is highlighted in green	The player is measuring 2 standard deviations above average players at his position.	I call this the “Exceptional” category.
The player highlighted in yellow	The player is measuring 1 standard deviation above average players at his position.	I call this the “Above Average” category.

The only players included in my data set each week are players that received at least 20% of the most targets or implied touches at the position. For example, the running backs included in the data set are players that amassed at least 20% of the implied touches (rushing attempts + targets) of the top running back performer in that category. This is to eliminate the players at each position that are not fantasy-relevant and dial in the true top performers.

The statistics analyzed in each skill position table are the volume statistics that correlate most closely to PPR fantasy points over the last three years. To read more about these stats and what others you should be focusing on to help you score more fantasy points check out my Fantasy 101:What Stats Matter article.

Players in the “Getting Louder” section are players that are showing positive volume statistics but did not get a write-up. They are worth a look based on their volume peripherals included in the charts.

Running Back

Week 8: RB Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	IMPLIED TOUCHES	TOUCHES	rATT	GZ rATT	TGT	FPTS
Dalvin Cook	MIN	46	88.5	33	32	30	4	3	48.6
Josh Jacobs	LV	48	66.7	32	31	31	3	1	12.9
David Montgomery	CHI	59	84.3	26	23	21	2	5	12.5
Alvin Kamara	NO	58	78.4	25	21	12	0	13	25.3
Myles Gaskin	MIA	43	87.8	24	21	18	1	6	13.3
DeeJay Dallas	SEA	54	79.4	23	23	18	3	5	22.8
Jamaal Williams	GB	64	85.3	22	22	16	0	6	18.2
Justin Jackson	LAC	41	47.1	22	20	17	0	5	17.2
Jordan Wilkins	IND	39	50.6	21	21	20	1	1	20.3
Leonard Fournette	TB	51	72.9	21	18	15	0	6	10.1
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	62	78.5	21	20	19	1	2	8.3
Giovani Bernard	CIN	47	64.4	19	18	15	0	4	22.8
Derrick Henry	TEN	33	53.2	19	18	18	2	1	17.2
James Conner	PIT	31	58.5	18	18	15	1	3	15
Todd Gurley II	ATL	36	51.4	18	18	18	2	0	10.6
Gus Edwards	BAL	26	31.7	17	16	16	1	1	14.7
Troymaine Pope	LAC	25	28.7	17	15	10	0	7	14.5
J.K. Dobbins	BAL	54	65.9	17	16	15	0	2	13.1
Boston Scott	PHI	41	65.1	17	17	15	0	2	9.9
Kareem Hunt	CLE	42	85.7	17	16	14	0	3	9.3
Damien Harris	NE	20	30.8	16	16	16	1	0	16.2
Zack Moss	BUF	31	53.4	15	14	14	3	1	20.1
Melvin Gordon III	DEN	36	55.4	15	14	8	0	7	10.7
Devin Singletary	BUF	28	48.3	15	15	14	0	1	10.2
Mike Davis	CAR	46	85.2	15	14	13	0	2	8.7
Brian Hill	ATL	25	35.7	14	13	11	0	3	8.4
Wayne Gallman	NYG	32	43.2	13	13	12	1	1	13.2
JaMycal Hasty	SF	29	41.4	13	13	12	3	1	10.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND	26	33.8	13	13	11	1	2	5.1
Malcolm Brown	LAR	57	60	12	12	10	0	2	7.7
Samaje Perine	CIN	24	32.9	11	11	10	2	1	10.4
Ronald Jones II	TB	17	24.3	11	11	7	0	4	6.6
Latavius Murray	NO	18	24.3	11	11	8	0	3	6.1
Nyheim Hines	IND	16	20.8	10	8	5	0	5	21.2
Darrell Henderson Jr.	LAR	18	18.9	10	9	8	0	2	6.8
Cam Akers	LAR	20	21.1	10	10	9	0	1	6.4
La’Mical Perine	NYJ	28	49.1	10	10	8	0	2	5.3
D’Andre Swift	DET	38	62.3	10	9	6	0	4	5.3
Frank Gore	NYJ	22	38.6	10	10	10	0	0	3
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	29	44.6	9	7	6	0	3	15.6
Tony Pollard	DAL	17	21.5	9	9	7	0	2	8.4
Le’Veon Bell	KC	17	25.8	9	9	6	0	3	6.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	33	50	9	9	6	0	3	6.1
Joshua Kelley	LAC	21	24.1	8	8	7	0	1	3.5
Alfred Morris	NYG	21	28.4	8	8	8	0	0	2.8
Jerick McKinnon	SF	35	50	7	7	3	1	4	13.9
Rex Burkhead	NE	32	49.2	7	7	6	0	1	4.1
Corey Clement	PHI	20	31.7	7	6	5	0	2	3.8
Week 8 AVG RB	NFL	27	39.5	10	9	8	0	2	8.3

Week 8 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Todd Gurley (10.6), Jamaal Williams (18.2), Derrick Henry (17.2)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 8 Hit Rate: 100% scored above 8.3 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 8.

It was a slow, injury-ridden start, but Zack Moss looked like the best back in Buffalo in Week 8. On the surface, Moss and Devin Singletary looked to have an equal split of the backfield. They each had 14 attempts and one target. Moss had a slight edge in snaps, 31 compared to Singletary’s 28. When you look a bit deeper, however, the opportunities were not so equal. Moss handled nearly all of the work in the red zone, carrying the ball six times to Singletary’s single carry. When you get even closer to the endzone, and touchdowns become more likely, Moss handled all three attempts within the green zone. He even scored on one. This fits the trend we were seeing earlier in the season before Moss missed time with a toe injury. Moss should continue to see the ball where the opportunities count most and should be the back you prioritize in Buffalo.

JaMycal Hasty was given an opportunity to be a featured back in the 49ers offense in Week 8 and he brought a spark. The speedy undrafted rookie from Baylor looked good in his first featured role as Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon cycled in and out. Hasty’s stat line doesn’t look amazing but he received all but one carry withing the red zone. He also scored on one of his three attempts from inside the green zone. Hasty looked elusive and quick which has been missing since Raheem Mostert has been out. The rookie may have earned himself some more volume in a great rushing offense.

Other Week 8 Opportunity Standouts: Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, DeeJay Dallas, David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Todd Gurley, Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

Week 8: WR Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Cooper Kupp	LAR	92	96.8	62	20	0.36	152	0.4	0.82	22
DK Metcalf	SEA	65	95.6	41	15	0.42	145	0.56	1.02	40.1
Michael Gallup	DAL	69	87.3	40	12	0.32	83	0.27	0.66	13.1
Keenan Allen	LAC	85	97.7	46	12	0.27	85	0.27	0.59	21.7
Davante Adams	GB	71	94.7	42	11	0.31	120	0.39	0.73	30.3
Jarvis Landry	CLE	38	77.6	24	11	0.44	62	0.57	1.06	9.2
Anthony Miller	CHI	53	75.7	39	11	0.27	69	0.21	0.55	15.3
Braxton Berrios	NYJ	48	84.2	31	11	0.39	39	0.2	0.73	11.4
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	63	90	43	10	0.28	94	0.32	0.64	23.1
Julio Jones	ATL	58	82.9	34	10	0.33	151	0.59	0.91	20.7
Kendrick Bourne	SF	60	85.7	41	10	0.25	73	0.25	0.55	16.1
Sterling Shepard	NYG	52	70.3	35	10	0.24	87	0.27	0.56	15.4
Corey Davis	TEN	49	79	28	10	0.34	110	0.42	0.81	26.8
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	58	89.2	40	10	0.26	162	0.52	0.76	11.3
Jakobi Meyers	NE	64	98.5	28	10	0.43	91	0.58	1.06	13.8
Josh Reynolds	LAR	77	81.1	55	9	0.16	85	0.22	0.39	8.4
Chase Claypool	PIT	41	77.4	29	9	0.28	95	0.41	0.71	13.2
Stefon Diggs	BUF	53	91.4	21	9	0.5	95	0.53	1.12	15.2
Darius Slayton	NYG	68	91.9	44	9	0.22	122	0.38	0.6	10.6
Tee Higgins	CIN	57	78.1	28	9	0.26	79	0.35	0.63	14.4
Mecole Hardman	KC	45	68.2	31	9	0.19	60	0.15	0.39	22.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	41	77.4	29	8	0.25	44	0.19	0.51	13.7
Robert Woods	LAR	88	92.6	57	8	0.14	47	0.12	0.29	28.4
Jaydon Mickens	TB	44	62.9	29	8	0.2	67	0.18	0.43	8.6
Mike Williams	LAC	76	87.4	43	8	0.2	134	0.42	0.59	21
Jeff Smith	NYJ	48	84.2	33	8	0.29	85	0.44	0.74	5.9
Robby Anderson	CAR	45	83.3	32	8	0.31	70	0.32	0.68	9.8
Marvin Jones Jr.	DET	60	98.4	48	7	0.18	84	0.21	0.41	18.9
Tyler Boyd	CIN	55	75.3	35	7	0.2	51	0.23	0.46	19.6
Marvin Hall	DET	42	68.9	32	7	0.18	115	0.29	0.46	15.3
Travis Fulgham	PHI	59	93.7	33	7	0.27	68	0.22	0.56	19.8
A.J. Brown	TEN	59	95.2	32	7	0.24	24	0.09	0.43	12.4
Mike Evans	TB	63	90	38	7	0.18	94	0.26	0.44	16.5
Allen Robinson II	CHI	68	97.1	45	7	0.17	89	0.27	0.45	20.7
Tre’Quan Smith	NO	58	78.4	41	7	0.17	82	0.43	0.56	9.3
Willie Snead IV	BAL	59	72	29	7	0.27	85	0.37	0.66	15.6
Auden Tate	CIN	33	45.2	16	7	0.2	38	0.17	0.42	13.5
Jalen Reagor	PHI	46	73	23	6	0.23	75	0.25	0.52	13.2
Darnell Mooney	CHI	65	92.9	45	6	0.15	102	0.31	0.44	17.9
Tyreek Hill	KC	50	75.8	40	6	0.13	130	0.33	0.42	25.8
Scotty Miller	TB	53	75.7	35	6	0.15	98	0.27	0.41	7.2
D.J. Moore	CAR	48	88.9	33	6	0.23	89	0.4	0.63	7.5
Zach Pascal	IND	58	75.3	30	6	0.18	64	0.29	0.46	7.4
Tyler Lockett	SEA	59	86.8	40	5	0.14	72	0.28	0.4	7.3
DaeSean Hamilton	DEN	61	93.8	41	5	0.13	56	0.18	0.32	18.2
Amari Cooper	DAL	59	74.7	39	5	0.13	38	0.12	0.28	1.5
A.J. Green	CIN	62	84.9	33	5	0.14	41	0.18	0.34	3.9
Curtis Samuel	CAR	41	75.9	30	5	0.19	57	0.26	0.47	21.4
Greg Ward	PHI	59	93.7	31	5	0.19	24	0.08	0.34	4.2
Demarcus Robinson	KC	36	54.5	28	5	0.11	63	0.16	0.27	16.3
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	37	46.8	30	5	0.13	36	0.12	0.28	8.6
Preston Williams	MIA	44	89.8	23	5	0.23	53	0.45	0.66	3.5
Trent Taylor	SF	35	50	32	5	0.1	20	0.07	0.2	6.2
Hunter Renfrow	LV	15	20.8	11	4	0.18	16	0.11	0.35	12.6
Henry Ruggs III	LV	54	75	27	4	0.18	61	0.43	0.58	2.9
Calvin Ridley	ATL	23	32.9	15	4	0.13	54	0.21	0.35	7.2
Jalen Guyton	LAC	76	87.4	41	4	0.1	97	0.31	0.36	1.3
Damiere Byrd	NE	65	100	28	4	0.17	41	0.26	0.44	6.9
Danny Amendola	DET	41	67.2	35	4	0.1	41	0.1	0.22	8.4
Marcus Johnson	IND	48	62.3	23	4	0.12	49	0.22	0.33	5.9
Byron Pringle	KC	37	56.1	24	4	0.09	56	0.14	0.23	5.2
Kenny Golladay	DET	18	29.5	15	4	0.1	54	0.14	0.24	0
Adam Thielen	MIN	47	90.4	15	4	0.29	8	0.32	0.65	5.7
Justin Jefferson	MIN	34	65.4	14	4	0.29	17	0.68	0.9	5.6
Week 8 AVG WR	NFL	43	63.8	26	5	0.16	52	0.21	0.38	9.2

Week 8 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Tyler Lockett (7.3), Calvin Ridley (7.2), Sterling Shepard (15.4)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 8 Hit Rate: 33% scored above 9.2 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 8.

On a team that has been absolutely decimated by injuries, rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been a bright spot this season in San Francisco. The receiver from Arizona State has been used as a chess piece all over the field, including rushing out of the backfield. In the Week 8 matchup, Aiyuk benefited from the thin 49ers roster and was the acting WR1 on the field. Week 8 resulted in the first double-digit target outing for Aiyuk this year as he brought in eight of his eleven targets. Speaking of targets, San Francisco has tried to capitalize on Aiyuk’s athleticism when they get near the endzone this season. He ranks fourth in the league in wide receiver targets in the red zone, a stat that has a strong correlation to PPR fantasy points. It gets even better as the Niners get closer to the goal line, is tied for second in football with four targets within the five-yard line. Currently, Aiyuk only has one WR1 outing this season (Week 8), but with these high-value targets and his raising prominence in the 49er offense, he could be a league winner down the stretch.

Last week while playing Guess Who on the No Huddle podcast, my co-host Rich Holman described Marvin Jones as “maybe the most disappointing WR2 in fantasy this year.” No lies detected. Coming into Week 8, Jones had not been more than a WR3 in fantasy and scored double-digit PPR points just twice. But what if Jones is no longer the WR2 and has to step into the WR1 role with Kenny Golladay injured? Jones easily had his most productive day in Week 8 after Golladay left early with a hip injury. We know that he’s capable of more and he has a plus matchup against the Vikings in Week 9. He could become the Marvin Jones you were looking for when you drafted him in August.

Other Week 8 Opportunity Standouts: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Darnell Mooney, Jalen Reagor, Tyler Lockett, K.J. Hamler, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker

Tight End

Week 8: TE Volume Leaders

NAME	TEAM	SNAPS	SNAP %	ROUTES RUN	TARGETS	TARGET SHARE	RZ TARGETS	AIR YARDS	AIR YARD MS	WOPR	FPTS
Travis Kelce	KC	50	75.8	35	12	0.26	1	84	0.21	0.53	24.9
Evan Engram	NYG	61	82.4	39	10	0.24	3	68	0.21	0.51	12
T.J. Hockenson	DET	45	73.8	34	10	0.25	0	67	0.17	0.49	13.5
Noah Fant	DEN	51	78.5	33	9	0.24	0	65	0.21	0.5	11.7
Gerald Everett	LAR	52	54.7	28	9	0.16	0	40	0.11	0.31	8.2
Dalton Schultz	DAL	75	94.9	36	8	0.21	0	72	0.23	0.48	11.3
Robert Tonyan	GB	46	61.3	24	7	0.18	0	55	0.18	0.39	12.9
Jared Cook	NO	40	54.1	33	7	0.17	2	60	0.32	0.48	16.1
Hayden Hurst	ATL	56	80	30	7	0.23	1	40	0.16	0.46	10.4
Jimmy Graham	CHI	44	62.9	27	7	0.17	0	55	0.17	0.37	3.3
Mark Andrews	BAL	51	62.2	29	6	0.23	1	44	0.19	0.48	6.2
Darren Waller	LV	57	79.2	25	6	0.27	1	13	0.09	0.47	7.7
Eric Ebron	PIT	46	86.8	28	5	0.16	0	31	0.13	0.33	14.8
Rob Gronkowski	TB	50	71.4	27	4	0.1	1	27	0.07	0.2	14.1
Trey Burton	IND	39	50.6	15	4	0.12	1	23	0.1	0.25	10.1
Ross Dwelley	SF	39	55.7	30	4	0.1	2	30	0.1	0.22	8.6
Greg Olsen	SEA	37	54.4	22	4	0.11	2	17	0.07	0.21	0
Hunter Henry	LAC	84	96.6	39	4	0.1	0	6	0.02	0.16	7.3
George Kittle	SF	46	65.7	22	4	0.1	0	43	0.15	0.25	5.9
Jace Sternberger	GB	28	37.3	14	4	0.1	0	45	0.14	0.26	7.6
Tyler Higbee	LAR	57	60	24	4	0.07	0	9	0.02	0.12	3.4
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	32	41.6	9	4	0.12	0	29	0.13	0.27	6.7
Jack Doyle	IND	45	58.4	14	3	0.09	1	17	0.08	0.19	9.8
Ian Thomas	CAR	40	74.1	28	3	0.12	0	9	0.04	0.2	5.8
Harrison Bryant	CLE	39	79.6	23	3	0.12	0	16	0.15	0.28	3.5
Anthony Firkser	TEN	26	41.9	18	3	0.1	0	25	0.1	0.22	5.6
David Njoku	CLE	29	59.2	13	3	0.12	0	8	0.07	0.23	2.9
Ryan Izzo	NE	48	73.8	12	3	0.13	0	0	0	0.2	4.4
Anthony Firkser	TEN	15	26.3	14	2	0.07	0	6	0.02	0.12	2.7
Week 8 AVG TE	NFL	39	57.2	18	3	0.1	0	22	0.09	0.21	5.4

Week 8 Highlighted Players (PPR Points): Harrison Bryant (3.5)

Above Average PPR Performance Week 8 Hit Rate: 0% scored above 5.4 PPR points, the average for the position in Week 8.

Since his return from injured reserve in Week 4, Trey Burton has put up two TE1 weeks. He is currently TE11 in PPR points per game. Burton has always been talented but injuries have kept him from cashing in on that promise. Teaming back up with Frank Reich and, a quarterback that loves to utilize the tight end, Philip Rivers has helped resurrect his fantasy value. Burton hasn’t been a magnet for targets, but his 2.2 fantasy points per target are top ten for tight ends. The Colts are also utilizing his athleticism as he has also scored two touchdowns as a rusher this year. Burton, if healthy, should continue to put up numbers to be a fringe TE1 option.

Evan Engram plays on a bad team, but that is not the kiss of death for a fantasy player. In fact, that has benefited many of the Giants pass catchers this season. The Giants are ranked third as the most pass-heavy offense in 2020. They throw the ball on 63% of their offensive snaps. That explains why Engram is ranked third in targets of all tight ends with 54 targets and 4th for target share at the position. Engram commands 21% of his team’s targets but all targets are created equally. Tight end PPR fantasy points are most strongly correlated to Red Zone targets and targets in the Green Zone. While Engram is tied for fourth in red zone targets, he’s near the bottom of the list in green zone targets with just one this season. Green zone targets are most likely to score his touchdowns. In fact, according to fantasydata.com, Engram hasn’t had a single target in the end zone this season. These numbers should regress a bit in the second half of the year and as a result, Engram should finally hit paydirt. With his current opportunity and regression owing him some touchdowns, he is firmly a TE1.

Other Week 8 Opportunity Standouts: Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski

Did you see something in the numbers that I didn’t mention? Help out your fellow QBL readers by posting about it in the comments or @ me on Twitter @KennyQBL.

Stats provided by fantasydata.com, PFF.com, Rotoviz.com

(Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

Opportunity Report: Week 9

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