To freak out, or to keep calm? That’s the question almost any fantasy manager will have about at least one player on their roster each week. It can be easy to overreact and lose control over a disappointing performance, but each week, we’ll dive into a few of fantasy football’s biggest names and help you decide if we should panic over a poor fantasy output or if we should stay the course and keep them in our lineups. Are there reasonable excuses for why the player had a down week or a few concerning performances? Is it an outlier, or is there something to their struggles and time to look for alternative options? That’s what we’ll aim to answer in Patience or Panic each week throughout the season.
You might be thinking, why is this being posted late in the week? Shouldn’t we decide to panic or be patient right after the previous week’s games? The goal is to look forward to the following week regarding lineup decisions, while being a few days removed from the emotions of a down performance.
Going forward, we’ll add a new verdict called panic-dependent, meaning that depending on your current situation, it may be time to look elsewhere if you’re in desperate need to win. If you’re reading this heading into Week 13, you’re likely fighting for a playoff spot or firmly in the playoff picture, so some teams need a player that gives a better floor, while other teams may be able to afford to put a player in their lineup who has a low floor but great upside.
Justin Jefferson, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
It’s a real shame I even have to type his name. But Justin Jefferson is in the most concerning fantasy situation of his career. The 26-year-old previously seemed quarterback-proof, as he has had success with multiple signal callers, especially since the Kevin O’Connell era began. Quarterback JJ McCarthy seems to be the exception to the rule, as Jefferson is averaging just nine fantasy points per game with McCarthy across the last three games, according to Matt Okada of Yahoo Fantasy.
He also hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2, and since their Week 6 bye, Jefferson has fewer fantasy points than Michael Wilson, Parker Washington, Stefon Diggs, and Troy Franklin. Now, the Vikings travel to Seattle to face the 8-3 Seahawks, who give up the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to Wide Receivers, according to The Football Database.
Making matters worse, the Vikings Quarterback situation looks no better with JJ McCarthy out with a concussion. Rookie undrafted quarterback Max Brosmer is expected to get the start. Brosmer played his final college season for the Minnesota Gophers, and head coach Kevin O’Connell has expressed confidence in him, but this is a brutal launching pad for the rookie. A difficult place to play in Seattle against one of the better defenses in the league is a tough ask, and as a result, Justin Jefferson’s fantasy outlook is tough to feel confident in.
It’s a challenge to possibly have to bench your first-round pick any time during the season, but at least at this point in the year, we have an idea of who can be a legitimate alternative option. It’s uncomfortable to even say, but as mentioned before, Cardinals Wide Receiver Michael Wilson has more fantasy points than Jefferson since his Week 6 bye. It’s still uncertain if Marvin Harrison Jr. will be back in the Cardinals lineup this week after missing the last two weeks due to having his appendix out, but during his Monday press conference, head coach Jonathan Gannon was asked if Wilson will continue to get more opportunities even if Harrison returns. His answer was encouraging for those who may feel like Wilson is the better option this week than Jefferson.
Arizona has passed the ball at an insane rate lately, with Jacoby Brissett breaking the record for most completions in a single game in Week 11. The Cardinals face the Bucs in Week 13, who give up the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers (based on NFL.com) and surrender the 8th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points, according to fantasypoints.com.
If you’re like most who need a win to secure a playoff spot, or at least stay in the hunt, Wilson looks like the better floor option. If you’re a long shot to make the playoffs and need the highest upside possible, or can afford to take some risk if you’re locked into a playoff spot, sticking with Jefferson isn’t the worst option.
Verdict: Panic
Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ pass catcher is an underrated player to have some panic about. His Week 11 outing was uninspiring against a mediocre Commanders defense (3 receptions for 52 yards). I’m not mad about it, though. I’m fine. Anyway, following his disappointing last game, the Dolphins were on their bye week, so some people may have forgotten just how good Waddle has been as the Dolphins’ top receiver.
Since Tyreek Hill went down in Week 4, the recently turned 27-year-old has had a 26% target share per game. He’s also averaging almost 15 PPR points per game this season, with both metrics according to JJ Zachariason.
Prior to Week 11, Waddle had outings of 20.9, 14.2, and 19.4 PPR points in the previous three games. He’s currently WR14 in PPR leagues, while he was taken on average as WR31 in PPR leagues during draft season. Waddle has been a big hit this year, and let’s not forget that just because of one disappointing game, followed by his bye week. His schedule to close out the fantasy season is attractive as well, as JJ Zachariason notes none of his matchups rank in the bottom 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed, including this week against the Saints. His playoff schedule starts with a Week 15 matchup against the Steelers, who give up the most fantasy points to receivers. Waddle should be a mainstay in your lineups as the fantasy season comes to a close.
Verdict: Patience
Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)