To freak out, or to keep calm? That’s the question almost any fantasy manager will have about at least one player on their roster each week. It can be easy to overreact and lose control over a disappointing performance, but each week, we’ll dive into a few of fantasy football’s biggest names and help you decide if we should panic over a poor fantasy output or if we should stay the course and keep them in our lineups. Are there reasonable excuses for why the player had a down week or a few concerning performances? Is it an outlier, or is there something to their struggles and time to look for alternative options? That’s what we’ll aim to answer in Patience or Panic each week throughout the season.
You might be thinking, why is this being posted late in the week? Shouldn’t we decide to panic or be patient right after the previous week’s games? The goal is to look forward to the following week in regards to lineup decisions while being a few days removed from the emotions of a down performance.
For September, we’ll have three verdicts when it comes to deciding our panic level over a particular player: patience, panic, or patience with concerns. As the season goes on, it should become clearer if we need to panic or be patient regarding a player due to a greater sample size of data we can pull from. For this part of the year, however, we’ll have the “patience with concerns” designation for a player we don’t want to give up on, but there are some alarming aspects of their fantasy situation. To finish up the disclaimers, we’ll largely avoid rookies this early in the season, and we’ll steer clear of players with injuries, since that’s too obvious (Xavier Worthy, for example).
Now, let’s dive into three disappointing performances from Week 1:
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
One target. One catch. A.J. Brown‘s Week 1 performance was just about the worst-case scenario that could happen for a player drafted as high as he was. Even if he ended up with one catch but had six or seven targets, we could feel a little better about his usage, but that wasn’t the case. The 28-year-old had been dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp, but he was removed from the injury report ahead of Week 1 and was a full go. While I feel for AJB managers and understand their frustration, it’s way too early to hit the panic button on a superstar like Brown. The former Titan is likely not totally 100% yet from the hamstring injury he was facing in training camp. Brown also missed three games with a hamstring injury last year early on, but when he came back, he had at least five catches and 80 yards in the three games following his return. As Brown gets further removed from his August hamstring ailment, we’ll likely see more of the A.J. Brown we’ve grown to know and love.
Per JJ Zachariason, the Ole Miss product had just a 5% target share. Brown hasn’t had that low of a target share since the final week of the 2023 regular season, when he played just 12 snaps. This type of stat screams outlier when it comes to his Week 1 fantasy production. The Eagles also had the lowest pass rate in 2024, and that low rate of putting the ball in the air continued into opening night against the Cowboys. However, teams with low pass rates typically regress to the mean the following year, indicating the Eagles likely will throw more often this season, giving Brown more opportunities. Quarterback Jalen Hurts ran the ball himself 14 times for 62 yards, even out-gaining Saquon Barkley, but do we really think the Eagles coaching staff wants to put their star quarterback in harm’s way that often throughout the season? I don’t think so. It was a discouraging start for AJB, but there are some clear indicators that this will turn out to be more of an outlier performance than a trend for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Patience
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
As someone who picked up Tua soon before kickoff thinking this was a great spot for the Dolphins offense, I can safely say I was way off. This is September. It was an indoor environment against a defense we at least thought gave Miami a great matchup. This was supposed to be the nuclear explosion week for the Dolphins’ offense, but instead, they came away with 8 points in a miserable performance. I would expect this later in the season, especially if the temperature was below 55 degrees, but not in Week 1. Something’s wrong in South Florida, and I’m worried this team is heading towards a full-out nightmare of a season. If you’ve followed the Tyreek Hill drama throughout the offseason, you know the vibes have been off dating back to Week 18 of 2024.
Now 2025 starts disastrously, and Tyreek Hill had a performance that we could have found on the waiver wire (4 receptions for 40 yards), although he didn’t play in the fourth quarter. Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy gives a brief snapshot of the struggles Hill and the Dolphins offense faced in Week 1, and it’s not greatly encouraging for their outlook the rest of the season.
With all of that negativity, you’re probably wondering: how can we not be in full panic mode with Hill? To be fair, I do want to point out some positives I came across regarding Hill. Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life noted that the speedy receiver came away with a 27% targets per route run, a quality number. He also lined up 50% of the time from the slot, indicating that head coach Mike McDaniel is showing us a concerted effort to give Tyreek some better matchups compared to strictly lining up on the boundary. The Dolphins face the Patriots in their home opener in Week 2, and something makes me want to not completely give up on Hill before we see this offense at home in September. Since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Tyreek has played in four home games in September, where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played the entirety of the game. In those games, Hill averages 6.5 catches for 103.5 yards, according to my old-fashioned addition and division skills. I’m not quite ready yet to cut the cord on Hill, at least for this week, but if you want to go in a different direction in your lineups for Week 2, I can’t blame you.
Verdict: Patience with concerns
Alternative options: If you’re not comfortable starting Hill in Week 2, let’s find a different route you may be able to take. Based on ADP, you might have been able to come away with Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers if you drafted Hill. Meyers ran the most routes, along with Tre Tucker, in Week 1 among Raiders pass catchers (according to PFF) and could get an even bigger jump in usage if Tight End Brock Bowers is unable to suit up with a knee issue. Even if Bowers is out there, Meyers showed he can be plenty relevant when it comes to fantasy football. The former Patriot forced six missed tackles in Week 1, second among all receivers, according to Fantasy Life.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
NFL defensive coordinators must have made a pact to shut down opposing teams’ run games in Week 1. Low yards per carry were littered across the league, and Kenneth Walker III was no different with his 10 carries for 20 yards. While averaging two yards per carry isn’t an encouraging way to start the season, what was more concerning was how involved RB Zach Charbonnet was. The former UCLA Bruin played nine more snaps than Walker (according to JJ Zachariason), ran more routes than Walker, was in during the two-minute drill, and was given the high-value goal line role (Davis Mattek).
We do have a few positives when diving into Walker’s output. He actually out-touched Charbonnet (13 to 12), even with playing fewer snaps, and had three targets compared to zero for Charbonnet. It’s not like Charbonnet totally knocked it out of the park either with his 3.9 yards per carry average. Charbonnet’s touchdown saved his day, but we largely drafted Walker in the fourth round on average because of Klint Kubiak’s advantageous scheme for running backs. The Seahawks face the Steelers in Week 2, who just let Breece Hall run all over them for 107 yards on 19 carries. Let’s give Walker more than one game in this system before we bail.
Verdict: Patience
Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)