To freak out, or to keep calm? That’s the question almost any fantasy manager will have about at least one player on their roster each week. It can be easy to overreact and lose control over a disappointing performance, but each week, we’ll dive into a few of fantasy football’s biggest names and help you decide if we should panic over a poor fantasy output or if we should stay the course and keep them in our lineups. Are there reasonable excuses for why the player had a down week or a few concerning performances? Is it an outlier, or is there something to their struggles and time to look for alternative options? That’s what we’ll aim to answer in Patience or Panic each week throughout the season.
You might be thinking, why is this being posted late in the week? Shouldn’t we decide to panic or be patient right after the previous week’s games? The goal is to look forward to the following week regarding lineup decisions, while being a few days removed from the emotions of a down performance.
For September, we’ll have three verdicts when it comes to deciding our panic level over a particular player: patience, panic, or patience with concerns. As the season progresses, it should become clearer whether we need to panic or be patient regarding a player, given the larger sample size of data we can draw from. For this part of the year, however, we’ll have the “patience with concerns” designation for a player we don’t want to give up on, but there are some alarming aspects of their fantasy situation. To finish up the disclaimers, we’ll largely avoid rookies this early in the season, and we’ll steer clear of players with injuries, since that’s too obvious.
Heading into Week 3, there’s no shortage of players we can lose control over. Two superstar names, however, stand out among the rest of the players we may be tempted to make some irrational decisions about. All stats/data points are courtesy of JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB, as he provided several encouraging reasons this week to stick with these high-draft capital WRs through their down performances.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
I know I preached patience with the Eagles’ star WR last week, and that didn’t come to fruition in Week 2 (5 receptions, 27 yards), but the way this Eagles offense is operating isn’t sustainable. Last season, they passed at the second-lowest rate since 2011, and somehow they’re passing even less so far in 2025 at just a 38.5% rate. The opportunities simply aren’t there enough, at least yet, for A.J. Brown to make a real fantasy impact. Philly’s offense also has been playing at a snail’s pace as the Eagles have taken the most time per play this season. Jalen Hurts’ average depth of target so far is just 5.9 yards, while he’s finished previous seasons with at least an ADOT of 8.4 yards. Between pass rate, a slow-paced offense, and an outlier of an adot, showing that Hurts is dinking and dunking down the field way more than in the past, has made it almost impossible for Brown to have any sort of fantasy success.
One positive for the 28-year-old from Week 2 was his target share going up to 38% compared to a 5% target share from Week 1. It’s at least showing there was more of an emphasis to get Brown the ball this past week. As he gets further and further away from his training camp hamstring injury and as the Eagles offense has some natural regression, instead of looking like they’re from 1938, things will turn for the better for a player largely being drafted in the second round of many fantasy drafts this year.
Verdict: Patience
Brian Thomas Jr, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
As someone who made a decent-sized investment in BTJ in an auction league this year, I’m tempted to freak out over his frustrating start. Before we dive into why we shouldn’t lose our minds yet, there is one concern I have to address. Thomas really got going at the end of last season once Mac Jones was playing the majority of the time. From Weeks 1-9, where Trevor Lawrence primarily played, BTJ averaged just under 4 catches for about 66 yards per game. Once Jones was under center from Week 10 on, his average receptions per game went up to 6.5 while his yards per game also increased to just under 86 yards. The only reservation I had with BTJ heading into 2025 was exactly this: his questionable connection with Lawrence. I can’t say those concerns have subsided through two weeks, but some positive data points do exist through this slow beginning.
I’d be more concerned with the T-Law connection if the volume wasn’t there, but through two weeks, Lawrence is looking BTJ’s way plenty. He’s averaging just about a 27% target share in the Jags’ first two games, but it’s only resulted in averaging 9 PPR points per game. From 2011 on, there have been 200+ receivers who have had a 25% target share or more while playing at least 8 games. Each one of those receivers averaged more than 9 PPR points per game, meaning Thomas’ production with this type of target share likely is due for some positive regression.
After their Week 2 loss, head coach Liam Coen said Thomas Jr was dealing with a wrist injury, but he wasn’t on the injury report going into the game. It’s unclear if the injury happened during the game or prior, but BTJ was a full participant in their Wednesday practice ahead of their Week 3 matchup at home against Houston. The 2024 first-round pick may see a lot of Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr, one of the NFL’s top defensive backs, but the last thing you want to do is bench Thomas once the volume he’s been seeing turns into real production.
Verdict: Patience
The theme between AJ Brown and Brian Thomas Jr‘s concerning starts is, at least in Week 2, their quarterbacks were trying to get them the football. These guys aren’t forgotten in their respective offenses, and they shouldn’t be forgotten in your lineups by making a rash decision to bench either one.
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)