Playing “Over/Under” With Every Team’s 2021 Win Total

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 9.5

 

Honestly, this might be my favorite pick of them all. Now, you may be wondering: Justin, the Falcons just traded Julio Jones, how come you have faith in them? Well, in spite of all of this, their offense projects adequately heading into 2021. The addition of head coach Arthur Smith cannot be overlooked, especially after he crafted an elite offense in Tennessee. The addition of fourth overall pick Kyle Pitts should help matters, and it’s important to remember that Jones only played in nine games last year, two of which he didn’t finish. Matt Ryan has had great success in the exact type of offensive system Smith will run in Atlanta, and there’s a reason I see him as a value in fantasy this season.

Even the Falcons defense stands to be better this year. The addition of defensive coordinator Dean Pees will help, but there’s more here. They ranked in the top-20 in both PFF coverage grade and pass-rush grade last year, indicating poor luck here, and they projected talent-wise as a slightly upgraded group to last year.

Remember, this team ranked 18th in point differential last year and lost three games in which they had a win probability over 98%. If you just give them the wins in those games, they’d be on pace to match than win total. The coaching staff upgrades have them in the right direction, and I’d be looking to take advantage of their low win total. Don’t let one year of really poor luck get in the way of your analysis of this team in 2021.

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

•  Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 3

 

Yikes. This one is difficult. This is a very high win total, but, I keep wanting to pick “over”. Don’t bet this win total! Lamar Jackson and co. still finished 10th in yards/play despite going through some struggles last year, and they continue to field an elite coverage unit. You’d love to see more from Jackson through the air in 2021, and not having first-round rookie Rashod Bateman for the first month won’t help. That being said, it’s hard to imagine them not at around 11 wins and in the thick of the AFC playoff picture.

 

Buffalo Bills

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 3.5

 

An AFC playoff contender whose win total is essentially “un-bettable? I guess that’s becoming a theme here! For the Bills, it all comes down to Josh Allen. Was his breakout 2020 season legitimate? They clearly believe so after giving him a $258 million extension, and everything that was in place in 2020 – elite receiving corps, pass-heavy offensive system – are in place this year as well. Add in a solid defense, and there’s not a lot to be concerned about, assuming Allen doesn’t revert completely back to his pre-2020 form. With a favorable schedule, it’s hard to not see them as the clear favorites to win the AFC East this season.

 

Carolina Panthers

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 9.5

 

Why is the Panthers’ win total so high? They were a five-win team last year, which was backed up by all major underlying metrics, and don’t look significantly improved heading into 2021. Honestly, one can make a pretty convincing case they’re actually worse after replacing Teddy Bridgewater with Sam Darnold, who statistically may have been the worst quarterback in the NFL? This puts a major cap on their offense, which has an intriguing receiving corps, yet also doesn’t project to have a great offensive line; offensive coordinator Joe Brady may have his work cut out for them.

There are some interesting young pieces on Carolina’s defense, yet pass defense is about avoiding weak links, and that doesn’t stem well for their chances in 2021 after ranking sixth-worst in PFF’s defensive grading last year. They’d be on pace to be right around their projection for 2021, and well below their win total. Unless you believe Darnold is a noticeable upgrade over Bridgewater – I actually see it as a downgrade – it’s hard to make a convincing case for them matching their win total this season. The fact that they have the same win total as the Falcons is extremely questionable, in my opinion, but, hey, that’s why they play the games!

 

Chicago Bears

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 3

 

Another very fair win total here! The oddsmakers really are good at this! Really, there’s one sole reason we’re watching the Bears in 2021, and his name is the same as mine. That’s right; it’s time for Justin Fields to provide Bears fans with the stability at quarterback that they haven’t had in a very long time. I’m worried about the chances he, or Andy Dalton, succeeds with a poor offensive line and without enough receiving depth, while Chicago’s secondary is in poor shape as well. In simple terms, there’s a lot of red flags present here, enough to get in the way of them being a postseason team in 2021. I’ll leave it like this: START JUSTIN FIELDS.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 2

 

If you know my feelings about the Bengals’ key offensive players in fantasy, then you’ll be surprised to see me predict them to finish under 6.5 wins, albeit without a lot of confidence, this season. Yet, a lot of my optimism with them scoring fantasy points come from them playing from behind in games, which wouldn’t exactly amount to wins. A passing offense led by Joe Burrow and a very talented receiving corps voids well for their future, but will it come with this coaching staff? That’s more in doubt. Enjoy watching them and having them on your fantasy teams, though I’d be looking at 2022 as a more realistic timeline for them.

 

Cleveland Browns

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 2

 

With an excellent front office, the Browns, for the first time in a very long time, are heading in the right direction. Not only do they have one of the youngest rosters in the NFL, but they’re also incredibly talented. The offense, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, behind a great offensive line and with a talented group of playmakers, is in great shape, especially with head coach Kevin Stefanski calling the plays. I’m a little less optimistic about their defense than others, though it’s clear to see the excitement here. I’m surprised to see their win total so high, and I’d avoid betting them at that current spot. Nevertheless, the schedule isn’t too difficult, the offense is poised to do great things, and I have full faith in their coaching staff. Carry on.

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 2

 

How can you not imagine the potential of this offense? I could see Dallas starting out slow as Dak Prescott gets back into form, but the schedule is too easy at the end of the season for them not to make a serious run; playing in the NFC East always helps. This season, the plan is for Dallas to get back their star quarterback, as well as almost every member of one of the better offensive lines in the NFL; add in their elite receiving corps, and they have the “upside” of a top-five offense. I’ll fade concerns about their defense any chance I get, though their win total implies others have as well.

 

Denver Broncos

 

I’m excited to see how the Broncos do this year if they start Teddy Bridgewater. They finished last in turnover differential last year and having an accurate distributor for the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant should lead to an improved offense this season. That being said, 8.5 wins is a lot for a team relying a lot on defensive performance this year. I’d actually feel better about their chances if it wasn’t for the fact that Drew Lock looks poised to take over for Bridgewater any moment; didn’t they go through enough of the turnover craze last year? For the sake of all of us, please let these young playmakers thrive!

 

Detroit Lions

 

Yikes. The win total (for a 17-game season!) says it all here. Will kneecaps be bitten this year? Perhaps. Will wins be had? That’s less likely. I don’t like quarterback Jared Goff’s chances in easily the worst situation of his career. The offensive line is in decent shape, but, right now, their receiving corps is …. let’s just say it’s not what Goff was working with in Los Angeles. Oh, and they seem to be the clear favorite to finish as the worst-performing defense in 2021. This, my friends, is what I call a rebuild.

 

Green Bay Packers

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 7.5

 

I know the Packers are unlikely to be as prolific as they were last year, but 10.5 wins seems rather low, no? A worse season for them could still easily get them to 11 wins in a 17-game season, which still allows them to exceed their win total. It’s encouraging that Green Bay has finished top-2 in red-zone efficiency in each of the past two seasons, as it makes me more comfortable that regression won’t hit them as hard there. As long as Aaron Rodgers remains paired up with head coach Matt LeFleur, I’m comfortable in banking on a high-end offense, while they have more defensive talent than they get credit for; one of the top safety duos in the NFL, a productive pass rush, and an elite cornerback in Jaire Alexander. Expect a slightly worse team from last year, yet not enough for them to go under 10.5 wins.

 

Houston Texans

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 0

 

C’mon Texans, you get over four wins, right? Well, I’m still not going to say that. Seriously, what is the plan here? Collecting about every running back out there, having Deshaun Watson as a healthy inactive, and …… let’s just say this isn’t the most talented of rosters. Hey, it’s nice to see Tyrod Taylor get a shot after the Chargers’ punctured lung debacle last year. Is this really a fair chance, though?

 

Indianapolis Colts

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 3

 

The Colts have been one of the most stable organizations in recent years with general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Frank Reich, despite their instability at the quarterback position. To be honest, I don’t have a lot of faith in Carson Wentz under center. In addition to being one of the worst quarterbacks last year in terms of PFF passing grade, he’s also been of the least accurate and least efficient quarterbacks in back-to-back years as well. Plus, he’s dealing with a foot injury, which could easily slow him down early on. Meanwhile, they once again didn’t add to their receiving corps, and now TY Hilton is likely out for the year due to injury.

I really trust this coaching staff, but without a high-end passing attack, it’s going to be hard to make serious noise in the AFC. A 9-8 record feels about fair, though, so this isn’t where you’d want to fade them. Instead, that comes by being high on a different AFC team, who we’ll touch on soon.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 5

 

It’s here, Jaguars fans; the Trevor Lawrence era has begun! It will be very interesting to see how the #1 overall pick in this draft performs, considering the lofty expectations bestowed upon him. I get the optimism, but I wouldn’t be expecting them to go over 6.5 wins. Lawrence, at the end, of the day, is still a rookie quarterback, so expecting a top-ten passer right away would be asking a lot of him. Furthermore, this is also a new coaching staff, one led by Urban Meyer, whose making the adjustment from college to NFL. Considering what’s happened this preseason and training camp, I have some reservations about their offense this year, even if we can be excited about some of their playmakers in fantasy.

The team’s pass coverage currently leaves a lot to be desired, and I’m not thrilled about the tackle duo of Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor protecting Lawrence. In simple terms, this is an offense that may get off to a tough start out of the gate, and with how much they’ll likely struggle on the other side of the ball, there isn’t a lot here that’s screaming “seven+ wins”. Maybe Lawrence takes the NFL storm. Or, this could be a rebuilding team that will continue to go through its lumps and bruises. Only time will tell!

 

Kansas City Chiefs

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 5

 

There are certain commandments that needed to be followed with betting win totals, and one I suggest following closely: “thou shall not fade the Chiefs.” Seriously, don’t do it. Patrick Mahomes is the top quarterback in the NFL and in fantasy and paired with head coach Andy Reid, it’s hard to imagine them not having the top offense in the NFL. There are legitimate concerns about their depth in terms of pass-catchers after Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but there’s a reason they’re considered the top team in the league. When you have an elite quarterback, many flaws can be covered up. Hey, maybe every team should have their own version of Mahomes. How hard could it be? Que Ron Washington in Moneyball… “it’s incredibly hard!” Oh well.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 3

 

The Raiders were surprisingly a fun team to watch last year. They ranked 8th in yards/play, while Derek Carr had the highest average depth of target of his career. However, their outlook is a bit murkier this year. The team cut ties with three-fifths of their offensive line without having adequate replacements, while they’re asking a lot out of Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards as their top receivers. Darren Waller will continue to be an elite tight end, yet there’s little else that’s signaling that this offense will be as prolific in 2021.

Then, there’s the defense.  The Raiders have ranked bottom-five in PFF defense and coverage grade, and they still are left relying on a lot of unproven commodities. I’d expect them to once again be near the bottom of the league in points allowed, and without as strong of an offense, they’re set to take a step back from last year. Seven wins seem fair for them, though there’s a chance this goes much worse this year.

 

Los Angeles Chargers

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: -10

 

That confidence level isn’t a typo; I don’t feel great about picking the Chargers to win more than 9.5 games. However, these aren’t your old Chargers. Insert head coach Brandon Staley, who not only demonstrated his prowess on the defensive side of the ball last year but, by all accounts, will be adopting a more modern style of coaching this season. What does this mean? A pass-heavy offense, being aggressive on fourth downs, and all the little advantages that they previously wouldn’t utilize to their advantage.

Justin Herbert will likely struggle under pressure more this season, though that matters a lot less when you’re under pressure less, which he’ll likely benefit from with a revamped offensive line. Being able to throw to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams also helps. I trust Staley to take care of things on the defensive side of the ball, while there’s enough offensively to get excited about. I’m mainly projecting a 10-7 record here, yet this is clearly an organization heading in the right direction. No front office change, but I see a lot of similarities to what’s recently taken place in Cleveland and Buffalo here.

 

Los Angeles Rams

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 5

 

Football has never been better in Los Angeles! Yes, that’s clear sarcasm given the short history of there being two football teams in Los Angeles. Optimism is through the roof for the Rams after the acquisition of quarterback Matthew Stafford. This all makes sense. This all makes sense. Quarterback beats everything else in terms of positional value by a significant margin, and Stafford will allow them to accomplish offensive feats that they couldn’t with Jared Goff last year.

Yet, that doesn’t mean they’re a clear frontrunner to win the Super Bowl.  Stafford is great, but he still comes with his warts. He’s generally posted high turnover-worthy play rates throughout his career, while his peripheral numbers haven’t been off the charts; he’s only earned a PFF passing grade over 80 once in his career. The circumstances will be better in Los Angeles, but it’s not as though he hasn’t benefitted from throwing to talented receivers in Detroit either. Meanwhile, the loss of Staley hurts their defensive outlook, as does losing Troy Hill and John Johnson III in the secondary. Thus, they’re not only looking to overcome natural defensive regression, but now will do so without the mastermind behind it, or two key defensive backs. That’s a tall task in a tough division. They’ll be a successful team, though I’m still not convinced they ultimately end up on top in the NFC West.

 

Miami Dolphins

 

I’m high on Tua Tagovailoa in fantasy and am intrigued by the new-look Dolphins offense with Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle on board. Yet, for a team that ranked in the bottom-ten in yards/play and yards/play allowed, I’m not sure they match that win total this year. While they were able to overcome due to the best turnover differential last year, that won’t remain in place. In spite of all their new playmakers, Tagovailoa is still not a lock to lead a high-end passing offense, especially behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line. Furthermore, the defense could be in much worse shape allowing points without as much turnover luck, especially with their pass coverage depth in serious question. Even if I’m super excited to watch them this year, we should be realistic about our expectations for them this season.

 

Minnesota Vikings

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 5.5

 

There are a lot of reasons to be high on the Vikings this year. They ranked 4th in yards/play, first in PFF receiving grade, and should be improved defensively this year (27th in yards/play allowed in 2020). Yet, what if the offense is worse? It’s hard to maintain high efficiency with an offense that has consistently been one of the least aggressive passing teams on early downs, forcing them to rely on a very productive rushing offense.

However, with regression likely to come in that area (4.9 yards/attempt in 2020, 4.4 in 2019), they’ll be forced into more third-down situations this year. Considering that Kirk Cousins’ yards/attempt has gone down significantly every year in non-play action concepts, that’s not ideal. Also, should Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson miss time, they have very little playmaker depth to compensate for that. Overall, this is a roster lacking the depth that needs to win a certain way and is one of the least aggressive in fourth downs; hence, why they score fewer points than they should based on their yards/play. That doesn’t sound like a team I want to invest in. There’s enough downside here to be comfortable taking the “under” here.

 

New England Patriots

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 3

 

It’s Mac Jones’ time! You can find my full reaction to the insertion of Jones under center here. Leaning on a more efficient passing offense gives New England a higher upside than they had previously, which makes them a more serious playoff contender. As I expressed there, though, Jones doesn’t have elite receiving talent to work with, and with a rookie quarterback, a mid-tier offense seems most likely. Yet, especially with cornerback Stephon Gillmore set to miss at least six weeks due to injury, I’m not as sold on their defense getting back to its glory days; it’s an older unit that is now forced to rely on Jalen Mills as one of their two outside cornerbacks. Honestly, just based on them being led by a rookie quarterback and with a capped ceiling offensively, this is too high of a win total. Do I recommend fading them? Absolutely not. Just sit back and enjoy some games in title town this year. I know Ben Brown and Ryan Heath certainly will!

 

New Orleans Saints

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 8

 

I don’t want to be THAT GUY, but what’s the thought process for the Saints having a nine-game win total? Their starting quarterback is Jameis Winston, their #2 cornerback is Ken Crawley, and their #1 receiver is Marquez Callaway. I love the duo of Winston and Callaway for fantasy, but that doesn’t precisely lead to wins. Given their losses on both sides of the ball, I’m frankly not super confident in them this year. Sean Payton is an offensive wizard, yet he has his work cut out for him. Just heave it up to Callaway, am I right? Note: this statement may be endorsed by everyone with late-round shares in the former undrafted free agent receiver.

 

New York Giants

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 9

 

Yep, I’m going to fade the Giants every time I can. This is a team that ranks at the bottom of the league in play-action passes and pre-snap motion, little edges used to gain an edge in today’s NFL. So, are you surprised, especially considering they aren’t aggressive on fourth downs, that they ranked second-worst in points per game last year?

Now, free-agent acquisition Kenny Golladay is dealing with an injury, as is tight end Evan Engram. It’s hard to have much faith in this Jason Garrett-led offense, while they ranked in the bottom-ten in PFF defense grade last year. To me, seven wins feels like a lot for them. I’ll call my shot now: consider them the “sleeper” to get the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft.

 

New York Jets

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 0

 

I’m really high on the Jets long-term; I’m a major fan of head coach Robert Saleh, new offensive coordinator Mike LeFleur, as well as general manager Joe Douglas. At the same time, I don’t want to be a year too early on them here. Zach Wilson is still a rookie quarterback, and there are still question about the team’s offensive line and playmakers. Furthermore, their cornerback room consists of former fifth-round pick Bryce Hall, former undrafted free agent Javelin Guidry, and other late-round picks. That’s not going to be easy for Saleh, even if he has had such success patching together strong defenses in the past. Six wins seem like a fair expectation for this year.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 8

 

This is the fun contrast between fantasy and “real-life” football. I’m intrigued by Jalen Hurts’ rushing upside for fantasy, but in actuality, his limits as a passer put a major dent in Philadelphia’s offensive potential this year. Plus, even with reigning Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, I wouldn’t exactly be thrilled with the pass-catchers he’ll be working with this year. Nor am I optimistic about a defense that has most of its investments in the defensive line, leaving their pass coverage unit in worse shape.

Add in a new coaching staff and some turmoil in the front office, and there’s a lot of ways this year is a significant wash for the Eagles. I’m rooting for Hurts, yet, sadly, I have to be realistic here. Wouldn’t it be more fun to anoint him as the next Lamar Jackson? Oh darn!

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

• Prediction: Under
• Confidence Level: 9

 

The Steelers seem to always finish with an above .500 record, so this would appear to be a poor pick. In fact, head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record before. Similar to the Saints, consider this: on paper, their roster is as poor as it has ever been. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 6.4 yards/pass attempt last year while averaging just intended 7.6-yards per target, and he’ll now play behind the worst offensive line in his career; they were a bottom-ten offense in yards/play last year, and likely will be again. Najee Harris is a fantastic first-round pick for fantasy, but in reality, it does almost nothing when it comes to winning games. Man, it’s crazy how different fantasy football can be from actual real-life positional valuation!

So, we have a bottom-ten offense without much explosiveness, but the defense will carry them, right? Well, it’s not a good idea to rely on consistently elite defensive play. Pittsburgh has arguably the most difficult schedule of opposing pass offenses, will have to overcome turnover regression, and also didn’t adequately replace cornerbacks Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton this offseason. Really, having faith in them is betting on them to continue to defy the odds, or Roethlisberger making a very unexpected career renaissance. Considering you just need them to finish 8-9 in a very talented division to win that bet, feel comfortable taking the under.

 

San Francisco 49ers

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 2

 

When we don’t know which quarterback will be starting halfway through the season, I’d avoid betting this win total; the 49ers are too talented to expect to finish with under 10.5 wins, yet with enough quarterback uncertainty to not be confident in them finishing with more than that. Even with multiple backup quarterbacks and other injuries, the 49ers still ranked in the upper half of the league in both yards/play and yards/play allowed. Yet, they struggled last year due to ranking third-worst in turnover margin. I’ll take my chances with Kyle Shanahan leading a productive offense, especially with the talent he has to work with.

Would I like for Robert Saleh to still be in San Francisco or for them to have more cornerback depth? Sure. However, this is a very talented team getting significant reinforcements back on both sides of the ball. Turnovers and injuries are two very volatile aspects of football, and they both should be on the 49ers’ side more than they were in 2020. With that in mind, I’d consider them the favorites to win the NFC West.

 

Seattle Seahawks

 

• Prediction: Over
• Confidence Level: 4

 

Is Russell Wilson going to be allowed to cook in 2021? That’s the million-dollar question. There are very positive indicators of a more diverse, up-tempo offense with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, which is very encouraging. That being said, as long as Wilson is throwing the ball to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I like your chances. I’d expect, by all indications, an average defense with Wilson leading a high-end passing attack, which is enough for them to continue to be one of the most successful organizations in the NFL. This is a rather boring team to analyze, but certainly not a boring one to watch.