QB List Dynasty Startup Draft (Rounds 5-8)

Rounds 3 and 4

 

In addition to recapping rounds 3 and 4, we will start to look at each team so far; how strong are they at each position, and what is their likely plan? Without further ado, here were the picks:

 

Note: Each pick was made by the name at the top of the column unless stated otherwise on the pick itself. For example, pick 1.01 was made by Ryanh while pick 1.02 was made by dadams0323–not Fenkostan. The color of each pick represents the position of the player (green is RB, blue is WR, orange is TE, and red is QB)

 

Round 3

Round three started off with another rookie in JK Dobbins. Dobbins was my favorite RB talent heading into the NFL draft, but his landing spot was not ideal in my opinion. Dobbins will share the Baltimore backfield–at least short term–with Mark Ingram, Justice Hill, and possibly Gus Edwards as well. Well, also that Lamar Jackson guy. Dobbins may start slow, but he should become the lead dog here before the season is over. Speaking of Lamar Jackson, he was the 3.02 and should be expected to go off the board close to Mahomes in most drafts–redraft, dynasty, or other. The two make up my tier 1 for quarterbacks–there are plenty of others I love, but these two are in a league of their own. Jackson is probably already the greatest rushing-QB in NFL history, and this carries an exciting upside. I worry about TD regression but at the same time, he should continue to improve as a passer in his second full season. Kenyan Drake, D’Andre Swift, and AJ Brown went next. Drake came on strong in the second half of last year and is the lead back in an exciting young offense. I love him for this year, but I definitely want to handcuff him in dynasty as he still doesn’t have a long term deal established. Something tells me the Cardinals are going to be hesitant to sign another running back to a big deal. Swift landed in Detroit where he will battle Kerryon Johnson for the lead role. If Johnson’s well-established health issues continue, Swift will easily run away with the lead role. With all the weapons in Detroit, the lead back role could be quite valuable. AJ Brown flashed in a big way on a bad offense last year and looks to be a star in the making. That being said, expect some regression in his YAC (yards after catch). His average in 2019 was 8.9, and he and Deebo Samuel were the only receivers to crack the 7.0 mark. Still, I love the talent we’ve seen and another strong output in 2020 will send his ADP into the round 1 range.

With Brown off the board, my next two picks were on the clock. I still needed a running back, and things were getting thin fast. Sixteen running backs had already been taken: 55% of the picks so far. With Mahomes, Jackson, and Kittle off the board as well, there also weren’t any immediately tempting choices at QB or TE. I was basically committed to going RB and WR here. Let’s start with my wide receiver pick. I love Kenny Golladay as both a top-10 receiver this year and in dynasty terms. He is the top weapon for Matthew Stafford, who was on pace for 5,000 yards through eight games last year. With Stafford, Kenny G was on track for 1,280 yards and 14 TD. Here is perhaps my favorite stat though: Golladay was the only receiver in 2019 with at least 100 targets and an average yard-per-reception of at least 18 yards. Basically, he is locked into significant volume and makes the most of his catches. I love it for my team’s WR3. After Golladay, I had to grab what was left at running back. Luckily, someone fell into my lap: Aaron Jones. To be honest, I think Jones is in line for some heavy TD regression this year and I thought he would be over-drafted here as well. That being said, he is definitely still one of my top-10 running backs for 2020. He may have an uncertain future, but he gives me a strong starter for the coming season and he has low mileage on his body. Assuming no injury this year, I fully expect Jones to get another starter contract from someone heading into 2021. The most pleasant surprise for me here is that despite starting WR-WR-WR, I still pulled an RB1.

The third round finished up with Julio Jones, Cam Akers, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, and Courtland Sutton. Julio Jones is a tough valuation for dynasty: he’s already 31 and could start the age decline any year now. As such, he’s a tough player to build around long term. Would I be shocked if he started to trail off this season? Not at all. That being said, his most likely outcome is still as a top-5 receiver for 2020. He had 157 targets last season or roughly 10.5 per game. Those are insane numbers. If Julio can maintain for 2 more years, he was a steal in the mid-third round. If he starts to fall off this year, it will have been an expensive pick for a 31-year-old in decline. This is one of the added challenges offered by dynasty drafts. Personally, I think Julio is an excellent choice in the third round and the ADP felt right to me. Cam Akers was the fifth rookie RB off the board, and the Rams spent a second-round pick on him. That’s some pretty significant capital for a team with a lot of needs, and I imagine Akers slots in right away as the lead back. If the Rams can improve the line from last season and Akers proves to be a capable runner, he should have a nice workload in a creative offense. Amari Cooper was next. How does a 25-year-old receiver with three separate 1K seasons slip this far? Inconsistency. Cooper had seven games with less than 50 receiving yards in 2020. He had four outings with fewer than 25 yards. Though Cooper has immense talent, he will likely disappear for a quarter of the season and that’s hard to accept. The round finished up with Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton. Ridley improved upon his rookie season last year despite playing in 3 fewer games. I love his talent, and I expect him to continue ascending as Julio reaches the end of his career. Still, the question remains: how much longer will Julio stick around eating up the WR1 targets? For Sutton, he also saw a nice bump in his sophomore season. He doesn’t have the best speed or acceleration, but he knows how to play the position. Sutton is the unquestioned top option in Denver, an offense that looks to be on the rise this year. He is also one of the last long-term WR1 I saw on the board.

 

Round 4

 

The fourth round continued the wide receiver run as DK Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy, and Cooper Kupp went off the board. Metcalf certainly looked the part during his rookie season, and he has an excellent situation: he’s paired up with Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future. With so much depth at the position, stable quarterback play is a great tie-breaker. I expect Metcalf to become the alpha dog this year in Seattle, and I have complete confidence in Wilson getting the most out of him. Following Metcalf, we saw the first rookie wide receiver off the board in Jerry Jeudy. Personally I am always a bit squeamish on drafting rookie wide receivers. It’s such a hard position to pick well. Since 2000, 51% of receivers taken in the first round have never put up a thousand-yard season in their careers. That’s terrifying for a fourth-round pick. Still, go online and listen to everyone loudly guarantee that Jeudy and the rest of this class are locked in for stardom. I know we are on a hot streak over the last couple drafts; just remember that for every AJ Brown there is a N’Keal Harry. After Jeudy came Cooper Kupp. Kupp was a monster at the start of last year, averaging 12.5 targets and 8 receptions a game through his first five outings. However, he only averaged 7.5 targets per game the rest of the way and seemed to disappear for stretches. Kupp certainly has chemistry with Jared Goff, but he relies on the right situational usage to be successful. By that, I mean he plays best from the slot and against zone coverage.

Next up in the draft came David Montgomery, my pick of Devin Singletary, and then Allen Robinson. David Montgomery is someone who feels incredibly safe to me this year based on the lack of competition on the roster. There’s no way in hell I see Tarik Cohen ever averaging 10+ carries a game, and I’m not even 100% sure who the third-string back is right now. Maybe Cordarelle Patterson? Assuming Montgomery doesn’t go down to injury or regress into a literal boulder, I have a hard time not giving him at least 240 carries. That kind of workload is a huge bonus for any back. The real questions here are long-term viability and upside in the passing game. As an avid Bears fan, I’m not sold on Montgomery’s talent. Still, it’s clearly his job to lose. Once I made my last pick at 3.07, I was already eyeing my next choice. I really liked two names and thought both were worth moving up for. They were Devin Singletary and Allen Robinson. In 12 games last season, Singletary put up 775 rush yards and 194 receiving yards. Over 16 games, that pace would have given him 1,033 rushing yards and 259 receiving yards. Put another way, those 1,292 yards from scrimmage would have ranked Singletary 15th overall last season. I love the upside here in an offense that clearly wants to run. What about newcomer Zack Moss? I’ll admit that puts a slight damper on things. However, not too much. Over the last three seasons, Buffalo has averaged between 29 and 30 carries per game. To be honest, I could see that number rise against a weak AFC East now devoid of Tom Brady. Either way, I like Singletary enough to take the chance. So what about Allen Robinson? It was a nice confirmation of my choices to see Robinson go with the next pick. Robinson remains an underrated weapon whom I have easily locked in as a top-10 WR for the next few years. In an abysmal Chicago offense, Robinson still averaged close to 10 targets a game. He is still only 26, and now 3 years removed from his torn ACL. It’s hard for me to explain how he was only the WR19 in our draft. It’s not like the QB play can be worse this year, right?

The back-half of the fourth round went Kyler Murray, DJ Chark, Travis Kelce, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, and Leonard Fournette. Murray looked promising in his first season, and he’s in an offense that wants to play at a fast pace. Let’s not forget his stockpile of weapons either. Murray is definitely a step down from Mahomes and Jackson right now, but he makes complete sense as the QB3. He could also easily vault into the elite with a step forward this year. DJ Chark arrived in a big way last year, quickly developing chemistry with Gardner Minshew. It’s good news, then, that Minshew remains the starter for another year. I’m not 100% sold that Chark is the real deal yet, but the upside of a 23-year-old receiver who has already broken out is worth the risk. Travis Kelce should again challenge George Kittle for the title of best tight end in the league. If it wasn’t for his age (31 in October) he would have been off the board by the end of the second. Like Julio, Kelce is a win-now piece that can hopefully keep his stride for 2-3 more years. Moving on to CeeDee Lamb, I can repeat what I said with Jerry Jeudy: rookie wide receivers make me nervous. Kudos to the guys who take their shots, but it will never be me. That being said, check out Lamb’s highlights if you haven’t yet–they are absurd.

This leaves us with Stefon Diggs and Leonard Fournette. I loved Diggs heading into the last two seasons, and he is one of the league’s best route runners. That being said, I am pretty cold on him for this coming season. It’s not the run-heavy scheme of Buffalo. There should still be plenty of work for Diggs to eat up. So what is it? Two things. First, there was the boom-bust nature of Diggs last season. With Thielen injured, I figured Diggs would feast. It just didn’t happen. In his last five games, Diggs had only one 100-yard game and only two touchdowns. Do we expect Josh Allen to make him any more consistent? I doubt it. The second detractor for Diggs is his changing teams this offseason. I’m not claiming that all receivers who change teams do worse–I’ve seen plenty of articles argue that point both ways. However, a change worries me in THIS offseason. With the way things are (coronavirus), a shortened offseason seems like a certainty. How do you feel about an expensive player having limited time to acclimate to a new team and their new system? Personally, I’d like to avoid it–at least this early on. Leonard Fournette closed out the fourth, and it’s kind of shocking to see him fall this far. He was a former fourth overall pick, he is only 24, he has two 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and he caught 76(!) passes last year. How is this dude not a first-rounder? Hell, why didn’t I take him over Devin Singletary? My biggest reason to avoid Fournette is not trusting his game via the eye test. Watching Fournette last year, I didn’t come away from it thinking he was some unbelievable talent. He seemed like ‘just a guy’ that can break away if the right hole opens up. Take his performance in week 3 against the Titans: Fournette finished with 15 carries for 66 yards. Remove one single carry, and he would have had 14 carries for -3 yards. This happened in other games as well: one big run saved the whole day. On top of this, the Jaguars have declined Fournette’s fifth-year option. The team already has plans to move on from the former first-round pick. That doesn’t inspire confidence in me moving forward. Still, he’s in for another huge workload this season and makes for a great win-now piece. That brings us to the end of the fourth round. Let’s take a look at where each team stands so far.

 

Team Summaries

Team Summaries

 

Winners so far: My early favorites would have to be Ryan Heath’s and Dan Adams’ teams. At running back, Ryan has a super stud in McCaffrey, a starter locked into a big workload in Fournette, and a rookie that I love. On top of that, he still managed to grab a young WR1 in Allen Robinson. Dan Adams made the second pick and grabbed my #1 dynasty running back in Saquon Barkley. He followed this up with Julio Jones and Courtland Sutton at wide receiver and then Travis Kelce at tight end. Dan definitely has a short window, but it’s hard to imagine anyone will have as good of an RB-WR-TE trio as Barkley-Jones-Kelce. Let’s see what the other managers think about their teams so far.

 

Ben Brown: At this point, all of the top backs were gone and I still had none. I would normally steer clear of rookie backs, especially this high in the draft, but since I had two 3rd rounders I figured I may as well take a shot at the upside of both Swift and Akers. They both have the talent to be low-end 1st/high 2nd round picks in redraft leagues in the next two years so I’m really banking on them getting opportunities. I’m really glad I took Montgomery where I did because RBs fell off a cliff as soon as Mike took Singletary with his next pick. I debated taking Kyler first and then Montgomery second but I was worried about Mike trading up for him. I probably overpaid for Kyler but I felt another QB coming at some point and thought it might be him after getting some new weapons after his tremendous first season. I’m feeling really good about my team competing in 2021 at this point.

My initial strategy was to go RB-RB with my first two picks no matter what and stay as young as possible. I completely blew it up by going Hopkins at 1.09 since he was the most valuable player left on the board and I felt he had fallen too far. He was also a bit older than I wanted, seeing as he’s 28 which is usually when a receiver’s dynasty value starts to fall. I also knew I would be targeting Kyler later in the 4th-5th round and I love pairing my stud receivers with their QB, so Hopkins still made sense in the grand scheme of things. I still wanted an RB with my 2nd rounder but once Paul drafted 4 RBs at the turn I knew I wouldn’t get any of the top guys; I had to reach instead for a couple of rookies with future upside. Honestly, Paul made me completely rethink my strategy and I essentially threw ADP out the window after round two. I got three young RBs in rounds three and four but only one has any NFL experience, so I’m kind of in a weird spot between the aging Hopkins and a bunch of young guns. My strategy for the rest of the draft is to mix in guys who can help in 2020-2021 while also grabbing some who will be valuable in 2022 or later.

 

Ryan Heath: I had to hit ’em with the double-whammy by following up Ekeler with J.K. Dobbins. This league is too sharp for me to get my preferred RBs here, but I ultimately decided to chase the profile and draft capital of Dobbins over Aaron Jones, whom the Packers hate. AJ Brown was another consideration, but I’m content with the WRs that will likely be available at my next two picks. My original plan was to target players like Jonathan Taylor and Miles Sanders here, but this league seems to (rightfully) value running backs much higher than average. I just wasn’t convinced that players like Kenny Golladay, A.J. Brown, or Courtland Sutton represent great value at the 2/3 turn, either. Seeing the high-value WRs slipping here, I traded Ekeler away for the 4.06 and the 5.04. I took Allen Robinson–the most underrated wide receiver in fantasy football. He still has zero target competition and will be playing with the best QB of his life this season. I then snatched up Fournette at 4.12, whose production this year will probably be in the same ballpark as Ekeler’s anyway, with positive TD regression likely to help out. 

My initial strategy was to load up on young, high-upside running backs early, and then figure out wide receivers later. However, this combined with my draft slot hamstrung me into selecting players like Ekeler whom I wasn’t really in love with situation-wise. I believe I saved my draft by dealing him for what would become Allen Robinson and (spoiler) Ke’Shawn Vaughn. From here, I plan to add a couple more reliable options at wide receiver and then focus on drafting young players with upside.

 

Ryan Kruse: Maybe it was all of the RB talent coming at a premium or just my own personal rankings, but I like Kenyan Drake here. I had him as my RB13 so I figured it made sense taking him after Henry. Like Henry, Drake is also 26 years old and in long-term deal talks. Yes, the Cards drafted a running back in the seventh round, but I’m not too concerned about the backfield competition. I’m not worried about Benjamin, but feel Edmunds will be a necessary handcuff (more on that later). I came into the fourth round looking for a receiver and got pretty lucky that my guy fell. I had CeeDee Lamb ranked higher than Sutton, Robinson, and Diggs (who were all off the board before my selection). I’m happy with the third wide receiver selected in the 2020 draft and believe McCarthy will utilize him well in Dallas. That being said, I get the feeling I will need some high-upside receiving options later in the draft.

My initial strategy was to grab two RBs and two WRs with my first four picks. I didn’t have any sort of plans for what order they would come, but I feel like I didn’t deviate from my overall plan much. Don’t panic and let the value fall to you.

 

Matt Bevins: I was excited to get Jerry Jeudy in the fourth. I couldn’t get one of the “best” rookie running backs, so I pivoted and took arguably the best wide receiver from this class. From what I’ve seen, he has the most upside given that he’s going to be his team’s best weapon out of the gate (Sutton is good, but it’s not like he’s the Amari or Zeke to CeeDee Lamb)

 

Corey Saucier: I didn’t have a pick in round 3 or 4, but I feel pretty good finishing the first three rounds of the draft with Alvin Kamara, George Kittle, and Odell Beckham Jr. already on my roster. I tried to trade back into the 4th, but I didn’t have any willing takers with what I was willing to offer. I didn’t want to sell off too many picks, and I certainly wanted to hold onto my rookie picks for 2021. Seeing as how the College Football landscape is currently up in the air, I don’t want to risk missing out on a chance on some top-tier guys in our rookie draft next season. Coming into the draft, my strategy was to hopefully land Kamara and Kittle and let the rest fall where it may. I wanted to take a “Best Player Available” approach to this draft and not get too hung up on positional needs. Of course, that’s easier said than done when you sit by rounds 3 and 4 without a pick. Still, through 4 rounds I was glad to have a top-tier RB, TE, and potentially a WR1 in hoping for a bounce-back season for OBJ. Having only three players on my roster spot through 4 rounds isn’t where I imagined I would be, but I still like my squad at this point and have spots where I know value will fall to me (if I don’t get sniped too much, that is!).

 

David Fenko: Lamar Jackson was responsible for a large chunk of my success last year and I am willing to bet that the TD regression won’t be as much of a cliff as other analysts are thinking. Even with an entire season worth of game tape, Jackson was able to exploit opposing defenses with his arm and his legs. Baltimore has now added J. K. Dobbins to an already dynamic offense, which should allow for the Ravens to keep building the offense around Lamar’s skillset. Josh Allen is a big concern, but Stefon Diggs has played with lesser QBs before. Now as the primary receiver in Buffalo, the hope is that Diggs won’t disappear in games like the Minnesota game plan caused him to frequently over the last few seasons. Diggs’ ability to create separation and adjust his body should help him catch some of Allen’s lame ducks.

Despite the lack of a first-round pick, my initial strategy was to put together a competitive 2020 team. It seemed well within reason as aging players anecdotally are discounted on draft day. I used my handicap for this year as an excuse to take established players at a discount with an eye towards the current season. Through 4 rounds, my team still has youth, but it also has a bit more of a known quantity feeling.

 

Erik Smith: There wasn’t much to debate with my third-round pick as I felt Amari Cooper fell too far. So, I grabbed him without hesitation. While there are some question marks with Cooper’s injury history and the Cowboys’ drafting of rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, Cooper still checks most of the boxes for dynasty leagues. He will soon be turning just 26 years old, was a former first-round pick, and has already recorded four 1,000 yard seasons despite an early-career team change. I expect some may take issue with my Cooper Kupp selection, as there were more explosive receiving options on the board, but Kupp has flat-out produced while in the league with 196 receptions for 2,596 yards over his first three seasons. That is despite suffering an ACL injury in the middle of his second year. Kupp has had a consistent red-zone role as well, totaling 21 touchdowns in his career. While it is possible he is on a new team next year after his contract expires, Kupp feels like the type of player that should be a PPR asset on most teams in the league. And with my WR heavy approach, I wanted to make sure I had some consistency, which I felt Kupp would give me filling my first flex spot.

Picking 10th, I knew I was in a bit of a no man’s land for filling the running back position. If I picked two running backs in the first two rounds, I worried I was putting myself at risk of the short shelf life that the position offers. So, I took who I view is one of the safest long-term assets in Chris Godwin–a young player that I am just really high on–and doubled him up with one of the younger established running backs in Josh Jacobs. Once I went this route, and then saw how fast running backs were flying off of the board, I had a good idea that I would be going with a wide receiver heavy approach. The lineup structure was a big reason for this; with 2 RB, 2 WR, and 3 Flex spots, I felt for the short term that I could find a way to fill that second running back slot behind Jacobs, and long term the idea of five startable young established wide receivers would keep me competitive every year. Once Cooper fell to me, it locked in that strategy even further. Going forward, I’ll be hammering the receiver position as values fall, and picking and choosing running backs that can help me this year that fall in value in a dynasty league setting.

 

Dan Adams: I knew from past drafts with the staff that running backs were going to go higher than they would in a typical draft, but I don’t think I was expecting fifteen of them to have come off the board since my first pick. I had planned to try for two of Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and Allen Robinson here to give me a solid receiver core going forward. When Julio Jones fell to the back of the third round it was tougher to take him than I expected it to be given his age. I still project him to score a fair bit more than Ridley even accounting for Ridley to break out in a big way this year, and with how many young and promising receivers were still on the board I decided to go in a little more of a win-now direction. I’m glad Ridley went off the board before my second pick of the round, because I don’t really want my top two receivers to be from the same team but I’m not sure I could have passed on him a second time. Sutton was one of my other targets and I’m pretty happy to land what should be a perennial top-15 receiver at the end of the third. I love what Denver has done this offseason to improve their offense (minus paying big $ for a RB), and I really liked what I saw from Drew Lock at the end of last season. Sutton should be the alpha in that offense, but having weapons around him to keep defenses honest and make the offense more efficient should be a benefit to him, especially since I expect him to still dominate the endzone targets.

My pick in the fourth round was probably the hardest decision I faced in this draft. Running backs flew off the board and I was staring down Devin Singletary or David Montgomery as my RB2. I am high on both for this season, but when Montgomery went right before my pick and Travis Kelce was still on the board I was pretty conflicted about whether or not to take Singletary or Kelce. Kelce is my top TE for the upcoming season, but he’s also about the same age as Rob Gronkowski and would be my second player over the age of 30 in my first four picks. When Mike offered to trade up I decided to move back four spots and hope that one of Kelce/Singletary/Allen Robinson was still on the board. It ended up being Kelce, which cemented the idea for me that for this draft to work out for me my team needs to be able to compete right away since my roster is going to be on the older side after the early part of the draft. Kelce has been one of the most productive tight ends we’ve ever seen, and even if he loses a step or two he’s tied to the most talented QB in the league and an explosive offense. I had planned to not have too many expectations coming into the draft and just take the value that presented itself to me, which left me a little uncomfortable with my long term options at running back but is hopefully balanced by having what should be a top-three tight end, top-five receiver, and top-three running back for the upcoming season.

 

Paul Ghiglieri: My backup plan, based on ADP, was to acquire Amari Cooper to anchor my WR group after doubling down on RB with four picks inside the top-15. Once again, Erik sniped me, taking Cooper one pick before my own much like he did with Godwin in Round 1. Rather than pivot to TE, add more RB capital, or take one of the elite QBs, I stuck with my process and decided to roll the dice on Calvin Ridley. I have my doubts Ridley will ever ascend to the heights that Cooper can, but there is a lot of statistical evidence to support the idea that he’s poised for that coveted “year 3 WR breakout.” If it comes to pass, I’ll have a top-12 WR to fortify the position, making all future roster moves easier to navigate. If Ridley fails to develop as hoped, then I may find myself forced to consider leveraging my running back capital for a stud wideout down the road. For now, I plan to add as many young pass catchers with WR1 and WR2 upside as possible to enhance my hit rate and balance my team. With no picks in Rounds 4 and 5, I can only wince as coveted talent falls off my board. However, the right way to look at it after my pre-draft trading is that I was able to secure Mixon, Chubb, CEH, Taylor, and Ridley through five rounds. In truth, there’s no way that happens if I had stood pat and not done some wheeling and dealing before the draft. Both CEH and Taylor would certainly have been gone in Round 2, and I would have only been able to acquire one of Mixon or Chubb in Round 1. Under that pretense, the only thing I have lost so far is a 10th rounder, the only round left in which I still have no pick. I fully intend on trying to change that, but much of what I do going forward will hinge on what’s left on the board when I pick again in Round 6.

My initial strategy was simple – acquire four picks inside the top 15 and add an elite foundation that should allow this dynasty team to compete for years to come while simultaneously reducing the hedging and projecting that often happens with enticing talents available in Rounds 4 and 5. While it didn’t work out entirely as planned (Godwin and three elite running backs), I shook up the entire draft by taking four high-upside, top-10 dynasty rushers. Hopefully, this will cause some to reach for lower-tier running backs in an effort to fill their spots before the talent well dries up, thus causing some prime WR talent to fall to me in the 6th. Wide receiver is far deeper a talent pool than running back anyway, so if I still think this strategy pays if I hit on the receivers I select.

 

Michael Miklius

Mike is a lifelong Bears fan who is just about ready to give up on Mitch Trubisky for good... Twitter: @SIRL0INofBEEF

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