Group 4: Definitely Not
Tennessee Titans (8-8)
I probably could have put these first two teams in either order. To be fair, I wouldn’t even be that surprised to see either squad pick up a win this weekend. I just can’t see either going on a real run. The Titans switched quarterbacks this year, dumping Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. The change surprisingly worked and the Titans finished with a 7-3 run after a 1-5 start. That’s nothing short of amazing. Still, the Titans are dogged by a terrible defense. They are 24th against the pass and 21st overall. They are also a below-average passing offense. If anyone gets a double-digit lead on the Titans, their postseason will quickly be done. The Titans could take out the Patriots, but a win over the Ravens would be shocking to me.
Essential Stats
- 95% of Super Bowl champs have had a better pass defense than Tennessee
- The Titans would be the worst overall defense to win the Super Bowl since 2012
- They would be the worst pass offense to win the Super Bowl since 2014 (2nd worst since 2010)
Reason to doubt: subpar defense and a passing attack that lacks punch
Reason to believe: Derrick Henry and the recent run of success
Super Bowl Doppelganger: 2008 New York Giants
My prediction: loss to Patriots
Houston Texans (10-6)
I never thought the AFC South was all that good this year. True, they put two teams in the playoffs. Was that much of an accomplishment in the AFC this year though? After all, the 8-8 Titans snuck in. Teams like the Steelers and Raiders had a chance on the last day. The Texans boast some big wins (the Chiefs, Patriots, and Titans), but they also have some bad losses (the Broncos, Colts, and Panthers). They have some good pieces, but I don’t think it’s anywhere close to enough. They just can’t do anything on defense and it should prevent them from being a reliable threat. The Texans would be one of the worst defenses in the history of the league to win the Super Bowl if they did it. They may not be the worst team in the field, but I’m firmly betting against them. Did I mention they finished the season with a -7 point differential despite their 10-6 record? Yikes.
Essential Stats
- The Houston Texans would be the worst pass defense to win a Super Bowl since 2000
- They would also be the worst overall defense to win a Super Bowl since 2000
- 80% of Super Bowl champs had a better run defense than Houston
Reason to doubt: the lousy defense and the mediocre pass-attack.
Reason to believe: the return of JJ Watt, having Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and some big wins during the season.
Closest statistical doppelganger: 2013 Baltimore Ravens
My prediction: loss to Bills
Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
The Eagles are actually a pretty strong statistical team this year. They boast an excellent run defense, a decent pass defense, and an above-average offense. If they were fully healthy, the Eagles could actually be a nice darkhorse contender pick. However, the Eagles are literally the opposite of health. Jordan Howard and Desean Jackson have played a combined five snaps since November 4th. Alshon Jeffery is done for the year. Nelson Agholor has been out for a month. Miles Sanders has an ankle sprain. Zach Ertz is gimpy as well. This is just the offense’s injury report. I am terrified of this team and I don’t know who will be truly available. If they are healthier than we know, Philly could win a game or two. If they aren’t healthy, it’s going to be one and done.
Essential Stats
- The Eagles have no significant weakness in the major 6 stat categories.
- Only three teams have had a worse season point differential than the Eagles and won the Super Bowl.
- Only three Super Bowl teams have finished worse than eighth in both offense and defense yards. The Eagles were 14th and 10th respectively.
Reason to doubt: injuries EVERYWHERE.
Reason to believe: strong run defense, lack of a big weakness
Closest statistical doppelganger: 2015 New England Patriots
My prediction: loss to Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
The Seattle Seahawks have put up a lot of good tape against a lot of good teams. Four of their five losses came against the Saints, Ravens, Rams, and 49ers. They also boast wins against the Steelers, Rams, 49ers, Eagles, and Vikings. Why hate on the Seahawks then? Easy: their terrible defense. Noticing a pattern here? The Seahawks, like the Texans, would be the worst defense to win the Super Bowl since at least 2000. They are abysmal against the pass, and they are bad against the run. They were a strong running team, but Chris Carson is out for the season and Rashaad Penny soon followed. I love Russell Wilson, but I don’t think he can singlehandedly carry this team to a championship. Seattle could easily beat the Eagles. I just don’t see them taking out the 49ers or Saints next week. Oh, and they have a season point differential of 7 points. That’s not great.
Essential Stats:
- The Seahawks have a better rushing attack than every Super Bowl winner since 2006
- Their passing defense is worse than every Super Bowl winner since 2000
- Their overall defense is worse than every Super Bowl winner since 2000
Reason to doubt: the lousy defense. I know…broken record.
Reason to believe: Russell Wilson is magic. Also, the Seahawks draw the depleted Eagles followed by the familiar 49ers.
Super Bowl doppelganger: 2019 New England Patriots
My prediction: win against Eagles, loss to 49ers