Quarterbacks in fantasy football and their value to the game are evolving more and more each year. In single quarterback leagues, there are two questions you need to ask yourself before hitting that draft button: can they add value with their legs, and/or can they throw for some combination of 4,500 – 5,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns?
If the answer to both those questions is no, they aren’t worth drafting in 12-person leagues. If it’s maybe, then it comes down to draft cost. That is where we find our draft busts for 2024. It’s important to note that bust, in this instance, has a lot more to do with their current ADP than it does their talent. Each of the players listed below is a tremendous talent, and when it comes to NFL value, they are all getting paid significantly less than their worth. Let’s dive in!
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper as of August 14th.
CJ Stroud (QB, HOU)
ADP 50/QB5
C.J. Stroud posted the best rookie season by a quarterback in NFL history. He single-handedly revived a Texans franchise that had still not recovered from the Deshaun Watson fiasco. Stroud’s rookie season naturally set the fantasy football world ablaze, and he shot up to QB3 in dynasty leagues and QB5 in redraft leagues. Still, there are reasons against putting him in your top five players at the position, no matter if you are playing with one season in mind or beyond. The primary one is rushing. Stroud isn’t a complete zero with his legs, but he is close enough. For NFL purposes, that may not matter, but for fantasy, it means he needs to be throwing the ball around 600 times in a season to even put himself in contention to be a top-five option at the position. The Texans added Stefon Diggs to an already impressive wide receiver room, but as things stand now, CJ Stroud doesn’t belong in the tier above and is probably being overdrafted at his QB5 ADP. For context, for Stroud to have jumped to QB5 last season, he would have needed to average 2.5 PPG more than he did in 4-point passing touchdown leagues. That would have been nearly 11 more touchdowns or some version of touchdowns and yards (5 touchdowns and 900 more yards). Either way, it is no small feat.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
ADP 74/QB9
Dak Prescott had one of the best seasons of his career in 2023. To be clear, there is a massive asterisk on this one. Prescott finished the season as the QB3 last year and has a fair shot at doing it again in 2024. The concern comes not only with his contract situation but also with CeeDee Lamb’s, his primary pass catcher and top weapon on the offense. Whether they both report on time or not is a concern in its own right. The next thing you need to be aware of is that if they do miss a significant part of training camp, the risk of injury is significantly higher, especially for wide receivers. If Lamb were to miss any game time at all, Prescott’s value would plummet, and the offense as a whole would see its scoring opportunities cut in half. Lamb’s emergence as one of the best wide receivers in football, along with the breakout of tight end Jake Ferguson, helped Prescott become one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Prescott had a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season while throwing for over 4,500 yards. The other two concerns that move Prescott to the back half of QB1 territory, even with a fully healthy roster, are the concerns with Dallas’ run game as well as their still stout defense.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
ADP 100/QB11
Last season, Brock Purdy proved to everyone that he is here to stay. He was a top-15 quarterback 11 times during the regular season, and 10 of those were top-10 finishes. With a 70% completion rate last season and a nearly 3:1 touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio, Purdy is due for some regression, and the potential loss of Brandon Aiyuk would significantly impact his production in 2024. While the Aiyuk saga is not likely coming to a close soon, it elevates the chances that all of Purdy’s weapons (Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle) are injury risks. The Niners are also still navigating contract negotiations with star left tackle Trent Williams. If Williams doesn’t return to the team, you could make a case that that would impact Purdy even more than the loss of Aiyuk. There may be blood in the water in San Francisco. This year could be the year to pass on the former seventh-round pick.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)