Drafting quarterbacks for fantasy football was becoming an afterthought. Then, two things happened: 1. Superflex leagues, where being able to start two quarterbacks made the position exciting again, and 2. Rushing quarterbacks changed the game. When finding the best options to gamble on, there are a few things I always look for. The first is the aforementioned rushing quarterbacks. When a quarterback can use their legs, they provide a safe floor and enormous ceiling for fantasy football. Even players who aren’t that talented of a player in terms of the NFL can run their way to fantasy football glory—case in point: Justin Fields. Fields is on to his second team and isn’t a lock to win the starting job. The NFL has told us what they see in the young signal caller. That being said, when he was on the field for the Bears, he consistently posted QB1 numbers, and not only that, but he flirted with top-five fantasy production amongst quarterbacks on a regular basis.
The next thing I look for is quarterbacks who take care of the football while also being tied to an elite pass catcher. Kirk Cousins was a great example of this during his time in Minnesota. He was consistently providing back-end QB1 numbers while being drafted outside the top 12-15 year after year. While Cousins still fits these criteria, there is another name that can take his place this season, but more on that below.
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper, as of August 14th.
Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)
ADP 102/QB12
Jayden Daniels has all but claimed the starting job for the Commanders. He improved every year in college, both as a passer and a rusher. For fantasy football, the rushing is the reason he will be in the QB1 conversation all season long. The goal for Daniels in year one would be to be something reminiscent of what Justin Fields was during his time with the Bears. I know that sounds bad, but for fantasy, it was borderline elite. While he is not quite the athlete of Fields, if he can post similar passing numbers (197 yards/game) and slightly less rushing production (~50 yards/game), he should clear most fantasy managers’ expectations and definitely bring value for his round 8/9 ADP. The good news for Daniels is that he is surrounded by intriguing weapons (Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Ben Sinnott, Austin Ekeler, and more) that could elevate his play to another level. If he can surpass those numbers even slightly, we could see him lift into the next tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
ADP 105/QB13
Tua Tagovailoa had, far and away, the best season of his career last year. It helps when you have one of the best wide receivers in football, of course. The challenging part about navigating Tua as your fantasy quarterback is that he doesn’t get any floor with his rushing ability. He needs to either throw for 300 yards or have three touchdowns in a game to sustain high-end production. With Tyreek Hill and a healthy Jaylen Waddle, he could repeat what he was able to accomplish last season, though. If the Dolphins do see an entire season with both pass catchers and DeVon Achane, a healthy Tua has a clear path to outperforming his career-best season in 2024.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
ADP 106/QB14
Jared Goff has found the perfect system for him to succeed. Surrounded by the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, Goff was able to accomplish the rare feat of ranking in the top ten in yards per pass attempt while having a bottom-three average depth of target. He ranked in the top ten in nearly every passing category last season while surpassing 4,500 passing yards. He gets his supporting cast back in 2024 and looks on track to flirt with QB1 numbers. The Lions’ defense should fare better with additions to their secondary during the offseason, and that is the only major thing that could lower Goff’s floor. Similar to Brock Purdy, Goff isn’t likely to see the same efficiency numbers, but he has the weapons and the skillset to stay on the fringes of QB1 territory. Don’t be surprised if he surpasses his 30 touchdowns in 2023. The post-Rams Goff is the perfect combination of high floor and high ceiling, even if he doesn’t have QB1 overall in his range of outcomes. Add in the QB14 price tag, and Goff could be an excellent target for those managers who miss out on a top-five or six option in their drafts.
Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)
ADP 108/QB15
It feels weird to label the first overall pick in the NFL draft a “Sleeper,” but for fantasy football purposes, the value is there. Chicago has found its quarterback in Caleb Williams. They also seem dead set on not taking three-plus years to find out just how good Williams can be, surrounding him with the best weapons a number-one pick has ever had. He is still a rookie, so the early season could come with its bumps and bruises, but Williams can play, and Shane Waldron’s system is pass-heavy enough to see Williams support each of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. The Bears signal caller presents both the rushing ability and the high-profile weapons to become an elite weapon for fantasy football, and unlike Goff, he does have QB1 overall in his range of outcomes (albeit unlikely this season).
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)