Drafting the right running backs in fantasy football can be one of the things that makes or breaks your team, especially in the first month of the season before bye weeks blow up all of our rosters. As much as it feels “safe” to draft your guy early, there is no sure thing they will turn out the way you hoped. Looking at just last season, here are some running backs who absolutely did not return value compared to the spot they were drafted in.
| Player | 2023 ADP | 2023 RB Rank - Season | 2023 RB Rank - Per Game | Points Per Game (PPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 4, RB2 | 26th | 21st | 13.2 |
| Nick Chubb | 10, RB5 | 86th | N/A | N/A |
| Najee Harris | 26, RB9 | 20th | 30th | 11.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 30, RB11 | 36th | 27th | 12.1 |
I already know what some of you are saying. THEY WERE INJURED! It’s true that all the players but one on this list were. This is part of the issue with the running back position. It’s highly volatile, and injuries wreak havoc on the position every year. Even if you picked one of these former top 12 picks among running backs, you probably wouldn’t have guessed who was the best of the group when healthy. Looking at their respective points per game, Austin Ekeler was on pace to be the RB21, significantly higher than the next best on the list, Rhamondre Stevenson, who was on pace to be the RB27, but even giving them the points-per-game rather than season totals, they still did not deliver on their draft position.
And the list above doesn’t include the much, much longer list of busts who were drafted outside of the top-12 at the position, including Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Cam Akers, Dalvin Cook, and so many more. Before we dive into my picks to bust at running back this year, it’s essential to define what we mean by bust. For a player to meet the criteria to be labeled a bust, they have to fall significantly short of their current ADP.
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper, as of August 14th.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
ADP 64/RB17
Kenneth Walker has been relatively consistent in the NFL. While battling some injuries in his first two seasons, he has filled the early down and goal line role for the Seahawks. Last season, he continued to dominate rushing opportunities, even with the addition of Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet’s impact in the passing game, both as a blocker and as a receiver, will limit Walker’s ability to be a three-down player. The most significant effect for Walker could be if the new regime leans more on Charbonnet in the passing game, where he is far and away the more natural fit for the role. Walker is not completely overpriced in fantasy drafts right now, but we are drafting him at his ceiling. That usually is the starter pack for a bust when it comes to running backs.
Zamir White (RB, LV)
ADP 95/RB23
Zamir White has been a popular name this offseason, but it’s hard to think this isn’t Alexander Mattison all over again. White had a small stretch of opportunity to end the year (weeks 15-18). In that time, he didn’t disappoint, averaging 15.18 fantasy points per game. The issue is that all of that production came from volume. He isn’t a factor in the passing game, and that is a problem when we talk about PPR and half-PPR leagues. He will likely cede those snaps to Mattison or, more likely, rookie Dylan Laube.
Additionally, there may be limited scoring opportunities available for the Raiders in 2024. White’s ADP is still climbing, so while he is slightly overpriced in drafts now, he is more than likely going to become an even worse value three weeks from now. White is a player who will not be considered during my drafts this year.
Tony Pollard (RB, TEN)
ADP 80/RB27
Tony Pollard gets a new contract to join the Titans’ new offense led by Will Levis. After suffering a brutal leg injury in 2022, he returned last season to post the least efficient season of his career while also seeing over 300 opportunities for the first time. He will share the backfield with Tyjae Spears, which should be a near 50/50 split in the early season. Both Pollard and Spears are smaller-framed runners who benefit from not being the guy to lead a backfield, so the pairing should prove an interesting season-long evaluation. If I am betting on a running back out of Tennessee, I am going with Spears over Pollard, especially with the two-round discount you can get on Spears.
Trey Benson (RB, ARI)
ADP 118/RB34
Trey Benson is big, fast, and strong. He has all the physical skills to be an elite running back in the NFL. The issue with Benson is when you dive deeper than the combine numbers. He saw a reduction in efficiency in college from year one to year two, and he tended to rely on his athleticism more than being a high-IQ runner. One of my knocks on him in the draft process was how often he sought out contact too early, which could lead to injury at the next level. Benson was drafted in the third round, and he SHOULD be James Conner’s immediate backup in 2024.
The rumblings out of camp are that he still needs to earn that backup role. We may see a three-headed monster to start the season, and that should be concerning for redraft players. The hope would be that he can earn the RB2 role before week one. If he does, you should expect around 8-10 touches a game for Benson at most. Ultimately, if he were to drop two rounds in ADP, he would become a sleeper, and that is the fine line between understanding a bust vs. an outright bad player.
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN)
ADP 154/RB51
Jaleel McLaughlin had some surprising utility in 2023. His size (5’7″, 187 pounds) will limit how often he gets on the field. He will serve in some capacity as a change of pace back to Javonte Williams and the Broncos alongside Audric Estime. He caught 31 of his 36 targets in his rookie season but wasn’t able to turn them into much as the Broncos offense faltered. In PPR leagues, you can use McLaughlin as a bye-week fill-in at best. He is largely off of my draft radar, even if he limps his way to a season-end ranking that beats his ADP. Guessing what games will be McLaughlin’s feels like more of a chore than an exciting bench piece. The reason why I’m labeling McLaughlin a bust, even at his later ADP, is that there are much more exciting options available around this time or even later in drafts. He’s going ahead of some of my favorite deep sleepers like Bucky Irving, Ray Davis and Laube, so McLaughlin’s draft cost doesn’t make much sense.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)