When it comes to drafting running backs in fantasy football, it has become increasingly popular to wait on the position until the middle or even late rounds. I am not against this like I once was, and this adjustment in strategy opens up some intriguing roster construction opportunities. For my fellow zero RB folks out there, I’ll say this: I am with you if I do not have a chance to snag one of the elite options in the first two rounds. For me, that means if I can’t get one of my top eight running backs at a reasonable price in the first two rounds, I’m likely going to go zero RB at that point. But whether you are going with a zero RB strategy, or looking for depth at the position after you’ve picked your starters early, it is important to draft players who have the potential to drastically outperform their ADP. First, let’s take a quick look at some top-12 running backs last season that were drafted outside of the top 25 at the position, and see where they ended the season.
| Player | 2023 ADP | 2023 RB Rank - Season | 2023 RB Rank - Per Game | Points Per Game (PPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 69, RB27 | 12th | 19th | 13.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 130, RB41 | 5th | 4th | 17.8 |
| De'Von Achane | 133, RB42 | 24th | 5th | 17.3 |
| Kyren Williams | Undrafted | 7th | 2nd | 21.3 |
That is a third of the RB1s last season that were drafted outside of the top 25 running backs at the position. In addition to that, here are a handful of other running backs who delivered great value compared to where they were drafted.
| Player | 2023 ADP | 2023 RB Rank - Season | 2023 RB Rank - Per Game | Points Per Game (PPR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 72, RB29 | 15th | 15th | 15.3 |
| David Montgomery | 84, RB31 | 17th | 16th | 14.8 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 104, RB36 | 21st | 23rd | 13.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 157, RB45 | 22nd | 30th | 11.6 |
This goes to show that there are plenty of players who can truly be values at the position. And this doesn’t even include players who benefited greatly from an injury ahead of them, such as Jerome Ford, Gus Edwards, and Zack Moss. Whether or not you are able to get elite running backs early, it is essential to load up on value picks for the position. Now, of course, that can be challenging. My approach to drafting late-round running backs is to focus on the players who are one step away from enormous spikes in opportunity. When looking at the 2024 running back landscape, there are four players who fit the criteria best, plus a few honorable mentions.
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper, as of August 14th.
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN)
ADP 104/RB27 (My Ranking: 86th Overall)
Tyjae Spears earned 170 opportunities on offense last season, and while that number may not blow you away, his backfield mate was Derrick Henry, which is a big deal. Spears averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in his rookie campaign, but more importantly, for fantasy purposes, he hauled in 52 receptions. Spears also was in the top five in explosive run rate against loaded boxes last season, according to Fantasy Points, showing that he has the electric talent to make the most of an expanded role in the offense.
Highest Explosive Run Rate vs. 7+ Man Boxes (min 50 carries):
1. De'Von Achane – 11.9%
2. Jaylen Warren – 9%
3. Tyjae Spears – 7.6%
4. Zach Charbonnet – 7.1%
5. Jahmyr Gibbs – 7.1%(Per @FantasyPtsData) pic.twitter.com/kkhhHkWsST
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) March 19, 2024
Spears was one of my favorite breakout candidates for the coming season before the Titans brought in Tony Pollard as their starting RB. Based on what we saw last season, Spears is the more talented of the two backs, but both presumably have a limited ceiling as they head towards a 50/50 split. The caveat here is if Spears either outright beats Pollard (something I think he could do) or if Pollard were to suffer an injury, Spears would be looking at enough volume to float him into the top 15 running backs at the position. Given his current ADP in the ninth round, that is a gamble I’m happily taking.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
ADP 127/RB34 (My Ranking: 88th Overall)
Brian Robinson Jr. is one of the more exciting players to draft this season at his current ADP. On the one hand, the Commanders brought in veteran superstar Austin Ekeler, but on the other, Ekeler is 29 and has dealt with many injury issues, leaving many wondering what he has left in the tank.
Robinson is the favorite to lead the team’s early down work. He ranked 13th last season in yards after contact per attempt, while also increasing his efficiency from his rookie year. Robinson proved to be helpful through the air as well, catching 36 passes for 368 yards and four scores. If Ekeler were to miss any time at all, Robinson should be the workhorse for the Commanders this season. Kliff Kingsbury is the new OC in Washington, and he is bringing with him what has historically been one of the fastest pace-of-play systems in the NFL. Not only that, but Kingsbury also has a history of rushing early and often in the red zone. Robinson has the potential to have a true breakout season in 2024, and he is going in round 11.
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA)
ADP 133/RB36 (My Ranking: 116th Overall)
Zach Charbonnet wasn’t the threat many thought he might be to Kenneth Walker’s touches in his rookie season. Walker outpaced him by over double the touches on the ground (219 vs. 108) and fell just three targets short of Charbonnet as well (37 vs. 40). That being said, Charbonnet did show that when given the opportunity, he has the talent to carry the load for the Seahawks. Charbonnet is firmly in the handcuff+ territory, while Walker is healthy. While the volume wasn’t quite there in his rookie season, he is the more natural receiver in the backfield, and Seattle’s new regime may utilize him in that capacity. The 6’1″, 214-pound back has some matchup-based FLEX appeal, and if Walker were to go down, he would immediately be in the RB1 conversation.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN)
ADP 138/RB38 (My Ranking: 80th Overall)
Honestly, I was shocked to see Chase Brown’s current ADP. While it will undoubtedly change in the next two weeks, he is a screaming value in the 12th round right now. In maybe the least surprising news out of training camp, Brown, not Moss, looks to be in the driver’s seat to lead the Bengals’ backfield in 2024.
Brown is a sturdy back, measuring in at 5’10” and 215 pounds. He also boasts a three-down skill set that should serve him well behind in an already potent offense. His rookie season gave us very little to work with, but in his senior season in college at the University of Illinois, he posted over 1,800 yards and 13 touchdowns. Doing it in the NFL may prove more difficult, but the opportunity should be there for Brown. The presence of Moss may keep his ADP low enough for him to remain a value, but the truth is, we don’t even need an injury to Moss for Chase to clear his RB38 draft value quickly. He sits as my RB26 right now and would flirt with top 12 running back numbers if the Bengals were to hand him the keys to the entire backfield. You should be auto-drafting him anywhere from the late sixth round and later.
Deep Sleepers
Bucky Irving (RB, TB) – ADP 163/RB54
Bucky Irving was a do-it-all back in college (Minnesota and Oregon). He joins Rachaad White in Tampa Bay, who was one of the most elite pass-catching running backs in the NFL last season. Where White faltered was on the ground, where he posted numbers as bad as his receiving numbers were good. Irving should run away with the backup job and could eat into early down work by the season’s end. If he were to continue to have a good camp, that could change his ADP, but he could find his way to early touches and bring some early-season flex appeal with the upside to be much more.
Ray Davis (RB, BUF) – ADP 164/RB55
Ray Davis is an absolute wrecking ball out of the backfield and joins the Buffalo Bills as their fourth-round pick in this year’s draft. The Bills are an offense in transition as they bid farewell to Stefon Diggs and drafted Keon Coleman in his place. They also have emerging stars such as Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. The latter had a solid season in 2023 but needed to improve in one major area: touchdowns. Cook’s smaller frame left no one but really Josh Allen when they got in close. Enter Ray Davis. Davis probably won’t see enough volume to be trusted week in and week out, but he could end up with double-digit touchdowns by falling into the endzone whenever the Bills land inside the five-yard line. That warrants him being a late-round value for your roster. If he were to earn the trust of Sean McDermott and company early on, Davis may just be the waiver wire add people are paying out the nose for in the first month of the season.
Dylan Laube (RB, LV) – ADP 238/RB73
Dylan Laube is one of my favorite deep sleepers at the running back position. Like many of this year’s running back draft class, Laube fell to the later rounds. Laube served as the workhorse in New Hampshire, and while he is slightly smaller, he can fill a similar role in the NFL. He has had an incredible change of direction and posted impressive explosiveness metrics at the combine as well. His only obstacle, as with most rookies, is his contributions as a blocker. Zamir White will get the first crack at the first and second down touches as he is the only returning player in this backfield. Laube will contend with Alexander Mattison but should start the season as the primary receiving weapon and third-down option. There’s a world where he posts a James Cook-esque season and goes later than some leagues even draft. That could mean league-winner-upside if everything falls his way.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)