Broncos@Vikings
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 17th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: MIN -10.5, 40 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Kyle Rudolph
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
- Brandon Allen (Sit)
For essentially a third-stringer, Brandon Allen was impressive in his first start. He was helped out by the Browns defense’s refusal to tackle, but he put up 193 yards and two touchdowns. It’s still too early to know what the Broncos have in Allen or to know what we have for fantasy purposes. Against the Vikings pass defense, which isn’t as great as expected but still good, Allen is an easy sit.
Running Backs
- Phillip Lindsay (Start/Flex)
- Royce Freeman (Sit)
Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay have both been productive backs for the Broncos and fantasy, but this week is a difficult forecast. The Vikings are the fifth-best run defense by DVOA and Allen is only in his second start. Freeman and Lindsay split all the work including the receiving, so there’s no obvious bump for the James White type player in the backfield. I have Lindsay as a Flex due to his ability to create a big play at a moment’s notice and he has been the superior rusher all year (ninth in DYAR and 10th in DVOA). I would be avoiding both backs if I can, but Lindsay can hopefully give a solid floor at the Flex.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
- Courtland Sutton (Start/Flex)
- Noah Fant (Sit)
With Allen behind the center, there was only room for two viable fantasy options. Courtland Sutton has leaped in his second year and more would be talking about him if not for his poor QB play. Sutton has an 11.9 aDOT and is eighth in the NFL in DYAR. Now without Emmanuel Sanders, Sutton has become a legitimate number one option for his team. The Vikings are known for their pass defense, but in reality, have been only average this year. The defense ranks 14th against the past and players like Xavier Rhodes have had a disappointing season. Sutton will have opportunities to make plays this week, we just need to pray Allen doesn’t hold him back too much. Noah Fant finally had a nice performance against the Browns in week nine, but it required three defenders whiffing on tackles. Outside of his one play, Fant had two catches for 40 yards. Even with the lack of depth at TE, there are better options not attached to a QB like Allen.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
- Kirk Cousins (Sit)
The Kirk Cousins experience this year has been like Michael Scott’s with vasectomies. Snip-snap-snip-snap. Cousins started the season out barely even throwing the football. Then when the entire Vikings organization got on him, he exploded for a four-game stretch. Now, he has been trending back down. The past three weeks his average intended air yards has been below seven yards. Yes, this has coincided with the loss of Adam Thielen, but Thielen wasn’t always getting deep targets. Cousins has still been top 10 in efficiency stats, ranking eighth in DYAR and fourth in completion percentage over expectation. Overall it’s tough to know what Cousins you are getting a week to week. So likely without Thielen again and against a good Broncos pass defense, I’ll be sitting Cousins.
Running Back
- Dalvin Cook (Start/RB1)
The Broncos have the ninth-best run defense in the NFL, but there is no slowing down the Dalvin Cook train. Not only is Cook getting the touches required for an RB1, but he’s also been extremely efficient with them. Cook is third in DYAR, fourth in DVOA, and 13th in Success Rate. He led the Vikings in targets last week with seven. There are no holes in his game right now. If the Vikings are without Thielen again, they will likely need to lean heavily on Cook, setting him up to produce even against this defense. Set it and forget it.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
- Stefon Diggs (Sit)
- Adam Thielen (Injury?)
- Kyle Rudolph (Start)
Stefon Diggs has disappointed lately without Adam Thielen in the game. Diggs is a still going downfield with an aDOT of 14.6, but that has been his issue. Cousins has been throwing shorter and shorter each week without Thielen with the Vikings running more two TE sets. If Thielen is out again, Chris Harris Jr. will likely be shadowing Diggs, so I am looking to sit Diggs this week where possible. If you are limited because of the bye weeks, you gotta do what you gotta do. If Thielen is back, then the passing offense can hopefully open up but it is still too early to know if he is playing. Kyle Rudolph has been getting more targets without Thielen, but he has still been in the touchdown-dependent TE group. But this is a sneaky solid matchup for TEs. The Broncos allow the second-highest percentage of throws to TEs, so Rudolph may be in line for some targets.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList; Reddit: Zzzonked92)
Ok I have in the past taken your advice I sat jarvis landry out on your reccomendation and guess what he ended up scoring 40 points . So excuse me if I pass on this advice.
Why even click the link then? You just come here to post a shitty comment?
It really sucks when you follow someone’s advice, and it doesn’t work out. We’ve all been there. So I can totally empathize with you being upset with how things worked out with Landry.
What I can’t understand is you coming back here to trash Aaron’s thoughtful analysis. Nobody bats 1.000 in fantasy football because there is inherent chaos baked into the game. Absolutely no one predicted Landry scoring 40 points last week because it would be insane to do so without the benefit of hindsight.